Introduction

The urbanization process has changed spatially the population distribution and various other socio-economic dynamics (Arsanjani et al. 2013a). Extant urban development has altered the land uses and activities in the cities; hence, new approaches to sustainable development require comprehensive analysis, understanding, and modeling of urban systems (Herold et al. 2003; Asgarian et al. 2015; Bikdeli 2020). The historical, socio-cultural, and economic values incorporated in some urban areas, such as Mashhad in Iran, necessitate the spatial analysis and management of mega projects, such as commercial complexes, aiming for the physical and functional revitalization of social and economic capacities (Forouhar and Hasankhani 2018). Commercial complexes are the set of buildings for a mix of commercial activities and services, such as offices, retail stores, restaurants, and other businesses (https://dictionary.cambridge.org). However, commercial marketing relates to the functional aspect of trading in each place or building, as the act of encouraging customers to engage with products or services to benefit a commercial enterprise (https://csic.georgetown.edu).

The development and redevelopment planning for commercial projects (i.e., a set of buildings for commercial function and retail stores) may represent revitalization processes that are complex and interdisciplinary, taking a long time from initial steps to realization (Bradecki and Stangel 2010). Besides, the suitable locations for commercial projects in each city, such as the study area, can represent great opportunities for redevelopment planning concerning to reuse of the brownfield sites. These locations should be inventoried and recognized using the regional community corporations to help the urban environment (see American Planning Association 2004; Ferber et al. 2006; Lake and Newman 2002).

In recent years, Mashhad has been considered an exciting research case of urban development and environment modeling such as simulating urban growth (Rafiee et al. 2009), earthquake vulnerability (Daneshvar et al. 2013), building construction (Daneshvar et al. 2017a), ecological carrying capacity (Daneshvar et al. 2017b), urban agriculture (Cinà and Khatami 2017), public transportation (Bikdeli et al. 2017), urban sprawl (Rabbani et al. 2017), urban flexibility (Sarvari and Esnaashari 2018), urbanization effect on climate (Sarvari 2019), greenbelt strategies (Yazd et al. 2019), sprawl effects on climate change (Daneshvar et al. 2019), urban ecosystem services (Ramyar 2019), smart city measurement (Noori et al. 2020), urban lighting project (Talebian and Riza 2020), urban sociology (Esnaashari and Sarvari 2021), urban flooding (Heidari et al. 2021), and greenhouse gas emission (Heidari et al. 2022).

Regarding the econometric viewpoint, the few extant studies dominantly have focused on the positive role of the land market in the spatial development of the city (e.g., Mirkatouli and Samadi 2017; Mirkatouli et al. 2018) or on the negative role of urban mega projects in the socio-cultural, and economic environments, especially in the central district of Mashhad City (Forouhar and Hasankhani 2018). However, any relevant research regarding the interactions between commercial projects and the urban economy is not observed. Hence, the present study attempts to fill this gap by addressing the correlations between commercial marketing and economic factors. As mentioned above, the previous works dominantly reported the physical and economic effects of spatial development in Mashhad, however, the main anticipation of the results is to reveal the background motivations to drive and change the development strategies, commercial marketing, and the development of commercial projects and complexes during the last decades.

The central district of Mashhad is defined as a holy shrine (HS), which is the main monument of the city, depending on the religious buildings of the holy shrine of Imam Reza (∼ 765–820 AD). This religious center of the city, attracting 20 million pilgrims and tourists per year, has shaped a special urban economy with hosteling and trading functions. On the other side, the physical expansion and economic transformation of the city in the last decades (2000–2020) have influenced the distribution of the trading and commercial complexes. On this basis, the main hypothesis of this research is retained that: the religious motivation of the holy shrine in the central district of Mashhad regularly has driven the marketing of commercial complexes in the recent decade.

After different statuses of city growth, Mashhad is still deficient in suitable solutions for its expansion and economic development (Yazd et al. 2019). Hence, more research is needed to resolve these challenges. The present study can be categorized as novel research, which attempts to spatial and temporal analyze the reactions between urban commercial marketing and influencing economic factors in Mashhad City during time intervals of 2010 and 2020.

Methodology

Study area

In the present study, a set of commercial complexes and trading towers in Mashhad are selected as the case studies. The Mashhad with a surface area of 300 km2 and a population of 4,000,000 inhabitants is located in the geographical position of 36°37´−36°58´ N latitudes and 59°26´−59°44´ E longitudes (Statistical Center of Iran 2020). In the last decades, commercial buildings have been developed in the city due to the economic growth of the city, which is dominantly related to religious tourism and pilgrimage functions. In this regard, approximately 140 commercial complexes and trading towers have been constructed from 2000 to 2020. Among these commercial real estates, only 18 cases have the largest total built area of over 5,000 m2 with most shopping units > 110. The physical information of these commercial complexes is shown in Table 1. The total built area of these complexes varies between 5,000 m2 (Abrisham) to 150,000 m2 (Axon). Axon commercial complex has the most shopping units (∼ 3000 units) and total laborers (∼ 6000 employees). The highest construction with 34 floors and 150 m above the ground belongs to the trading tower of Armitaj-Golshan. From the viewpoint of establishment and operation, all cases can be categorized into two decadal periods of establishments before 2010 (2000–2010) and after 2010 (2010–2020). In this regard, 7 cases are categorized as building aged before 2010 and 11 of the rest cases are classed as buildings aged after 2010. The oldest and newest buildings are related to Zist-Khavar (from 1985) and Melal (from 2020), respectively. The photographs of the case studies and the geographical distribution of the buildings in Mashhad are represented in Figs. 1 and 2.

Table 1 Physical characteristics of 18 selected commercial complexes and trading towers in Mashhad City (based on 2022 fieldwork data)
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Fig. 1
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Photograph of the 18 selected commercial complexes in Mashhad City a Abrisham, b Almas-Sharq, c Arman, d Armitaj-Golshan, e Armitaj-Tabarsi, f Asman, g Atlas, h Axon, i Ferdowsi, j Hafez, k Kiyan, l Melal, m Oxin, n Pazh, o Proma, p Salman, q Vesal, and r Zist-Khavar.

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Fig. 2
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Geographical position of 18 selected case studies (commercial complexes and trading towers) in Mashhad City

Note. HS: holy shrine, pink color: buildings established before 2010, green color: buildings established after 2010

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Data collection

In this study, an overview of official documents (Mashhad Municipality Reports 2022), fieldwork observations, and a survey of some interviews were used to collect statistical data regarding 18 selected commercial complexes and trading towers in Mashhad City. Collected data were inserted in some attribute tables and were divided into two types of dependent and independent variables. As mentioned by Thapa and Murayama (2011), the selection of suitable input variables to fit between the empirical data and the fieldwork observations are fundamental aspects of urban studies and land use modeling.

Research variables and data analysis

In this research, three marketing characteristics of the selected case studies within time intervals of 2010 and 2020 have been extracted from official data of Mashhad Municipality Reports (2022), representing the total annual revenue (USD), annual shopping store rent (USD), and commercial interest rate (between 0 and 1) (see Table 2). In economic terminology, annual shopping store rent is the aggregate annual rentals under all leases for space in the shopping store (retail space) (https://www.lawinsider.com/dictionary). The commercial interest rate is the interest rate that an investor will expect to receive from major financial institutions on the funds invested, or the rate borrowers will expect to pay to financial institutions (https://www.accaglobal.com). Also, total revenue is defined as a component of commercial interest (e.g., incomes from selling commodities or productions) minus the financial costs of total assets (e.g., shopping store rents) (Maudos and Fernandez 2003). Hence, the total annual revenue, which can represent the marketing index of companies (Farrell 2000), was chosen as the research-dependent variable to indicate the mean productivity and profitability of shop stores in commercial cases.

Table 2 Marketing characteristics of 18 selected commercial complexes and trading towers in Mashhad City (based on official data of Mashhad Municipality Reports 2022)
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Besides, eight factors were chosen as independent variables and were classed into two levels commercial marketing and urban regional characteristics. Regarding the level of commercial markets, four independent variables were assumed (see Table 3), including three constant factors of total direct labors (employees), lateral services (0–1), and E-commerce (percentage) with similar values for 2010 and 2020, in addition to a dynamic factor of shopping store price (USD per m2) with different values for 2010 and 2020. Total direct labors are related to the total number of employees that can be directly attributed to specific products or services in each retail store (https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com). Lateral services are the facilities that are used to transmit, distribute, or furnish infrastructures in commercial buildings (https://www.lawinsider.com/dictionary). E-commerce is defined as the trading of goods and services on the internet and web-based applications (https://sell.amazon.com/learn). Shopping store price is the cost for a square meter of a shopping store (retail space) (https://www.statista.com).

Table 3 Independent variables regarding the selected commercial markets (based on 2022 fieldwork data)
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Afterward, regarding the urban level characteristics, four independent variables were assumed (see Table 4), including three dynamic factors of accessibility to public transportation (0–1), regional land price (USD per m2), and regional population density (person/hectare) with different values for 2010 and 2020, in addition to a constant factor of distance to the holy shrine (meter) with similar values for 2010 and 2020.

Table 4 Independent variables regarding the urban regional characteristics (based on official data of Mashhad Municipality Reports 2022)
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Accessibility to public transportation is the quality of transit, serving a particular location, and the ease with which people can access that service (Verseckienė et al. 2016). Regional land price is the average price per square meter for residential or commercial land in an urban region (https://www.statista.com). Regional population density is the concentration of individuals in a specific region of a given city (https://education.nationalgeographic.org). Finally, the distance to the holy shrine in Mashhad City relates to the physical distance between a commercial complex and the holy shrine of Imam Reza, located in the city center.

Distribution of the geo-referenced spatial data was considered at GIS-based layouts and the estimation of the correlation coefficients between commercial marketing revenues (dependent var.) and eight economic factors (independent var.) were statistically analyzed using a Pearson test in SPSS for two different time windows. For this purpose, the range of variables was estimated and then selected based on validating access, study periods, and accuracy of statistics in the Excel tables. Thereafter the correlation tests were assumed to determine the relationship coefficients between the dependent and independent variables, exposing the positive and negative values of R-values as the direct and indirect correlations, respectively (Sarvari 2019). In this regard, R indicates the strong and significant correlations by values above 0.6. (Campbell and Swinscow 2009).

Results and discussion

An overview of commercial marketing in the urban scale

In the marketing literature, the definition of total annual revenue depends on the total annual sales of the commodities (or products) to the customers to maximize expected profits (Sun et al. 2011). The average total annual revenues for each shop store in the commercial cases were estimated equal to 10,500 USD and 5400 USD in 2010 and 2020, respectively (Table 2; Fig. 3), revealing a violent decrease in the total revenues (approximately 50%). Similarly, the annual shopping store rent in the case studies exposed a decrease from 3000 USD to 2000 USD between 2010 and 2020. On average, the highest values of annual revenues in 2010 and 2020 were recorded for Arman and Proma commercial complexes, while the highest values of commercial interests were recorded for Arman and Proma in 2010 and Hafez and Vesal in 2020, respectively. This result revealed that the commercial interests in 2010 spatially occurred for commercial cases in the city center, while this parameter in 2020 spatially transferred into the commercial cases in the city.

Fig. 3
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Variation of economic characteristics, i.e., total annual revenue, annual shopping store rent, and commercial interest rate, for 18 selected case studies during two time intervals of 2010 and 2020

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The measure of profitability can be nominated as commercial interest rate, which is financial self-sufficiency and the ability to generate sufficient revenue to cover its costs (Cull et al. 2009). The main part of the costs in the commercial complexes of the study area is the annual shopping store rent. The spatial location plays a major role in the shopping store rents in commercial centers (Rosiers et al. 2005). The variation of the commercial interest rates in each shop store of the 18 commercial cases was estimated in Table 2; Fig. 3. The mean values of interest rates were recorded as equal to 0.71 and 0.64 in 2010 and 2020, respectively, revealing the overall decrease of profitability of the commercial complexes within the recent decade. The reasons for this declining revenue and interest rates probably depend on the fall of the annual GDP (gross domestic product) of the Iranian economy from 621 USD billion (in 2010) to 231 USD billion (in 2020) (see Trading Economics 2022) due to international sanctions and managerial limitations. This national economic fall is evident in the overall declining urban commercial profitability in recent years.

Indeed, the fall in commercial profitability over the decade may be related to the U.N. and U.S. sanctions in periods (2010–2016) and (2018–2022), in which the government’s ability to gain oil revenues decreased sharply due to the financial embargo and cutting off Iran’s access to a secure international payment system (Kelishomi and Nisticò 2021; Daneshvar et al. 2024). However, the variation of commercial revenues in the level of urban regions needs to be studied based on the influencing economic factors of commercial marketing and regional econometrics.

Recognition and investigation of the independent factors

As mentioned in the section on methodology, eight factors were chosen as independent effective factors, classed into two levels of commercial marketing and urban regional characteristics (Tables 3 and 4). Tables revealed that two commercial complexes of Armitaj-Golshan (in the western part of the city) and Axon have higher values of direct labor, lateral services, and E-commerce percentages in the study area. The mentioned commercial centers have also higher values of shopping store prices in 2020. From the urban regional characteristics, some newer trading towers, such as Arman, Asman, and Axon, spatially have been concentrated in the central district of Mashhad City with the lowest distance to the holy shrine (HS), lowest regional population density, and highest regional land price both in 2010 and 2020. From the transportation viewpoint, the expansion of the public transportation system of the city in 2020 compared with 2010 provided suitable accessibility to all commercial complexes, while it is observed that newer commercial constructions (after 2010) have occurred dominantly in the central district of the city without the potential of the public transportation system. It seems that the main reason for the concentration of commercial cases relates to the lowest distance to the holy shrine (HS) and its religious touristic benefits and services.

Surficial skimming revealed that distances between the holy shrine (in the city center) and commercial complexes have been the core determinants of spatial-related externalities for shopping stores (Pan et al. 2018). This finding can be supported by the findings of the research (Esnaashari and Sarvari 2021), exposing that the religious motivation in the central district of Mashhad City regularly drives crowded social and economic behaviors. These socio-economic behaviors represented dominantly in commercial complexes, can disclose an environmental adaptation and physiological coping against overcrowding, traffic noises, and pollutant stresses. Particularly, the large-scale commercial complexes in the central district of the city (around the holy shrine), are not planned for the residents’ properties and completely have been constructed based on financial efficiency and retain of interests from religious benefits. In recent years, one of the main goals of renewal mega projects and the construction of trading towers in Mashhad City is to improve the access of pilgrims to commercial and recreational centers in connection with the holy shrine (Forouhar and Hasankhani 2018).

Statistical correlations between urban commercial marketing and influencing economic factors in Mashhad City

The Pearson tests in SPSS were used to correlate commercial marketing (total revenue), and eight affecting factors, which are shown in Tables 5 and 6 for time windows of 2010 and 2020, respectively. Tables revealed a significant positive correlation coefficient between commercial marketing and distance to the holy shrine (R = + 0.62) in 2010 at a confidence level of P > 0.90. This relationship has converted to a significant negative correlation (R=-0.64) in 2020 at a confidence level of P > 0.95. Besides, the correlation coefficient between commercial marketing and regional population density is estimated as (R=-0.63) in 2020 at a confidence level of P > 0.95. The findings mean that the marketing and commercial interests in 2010 had a meaningful relationship with city center profits, while in 2020 the marketing revenues and commercial interests of the commercial complexes had no positive relationship with city center profits. Re-skimming Fig. 2 revealed a transition of economic profit from newer commercial complexes (established after 2010 and concentrated in the city center) to older commercial complexes (established before 2010 and separated in marginal parts of the city). Hence, the new assets and investing capital in commercial constructions in the last decade have deviated from financial interests, because the changes in the urban economy in the recent decade have decreased the regional attractions and economic profits of the central district of Mashhad.

Table 5 The correlations between total market of complexes and eight independent factors in 2010
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Table 6 The correlations between total market of complexes and eight independent factors in 2020
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From a commercial viewpoint, significant positive correlation coefficients were obtained between commercial marketing and direct labor and lateral services (R from + 0.66 to + 0.70) in 2020 at a confidence level of P > 0.95. These relationships have been estimated as a significant negative correlation (R from − 0.66 to -0.67) in 2010 at a confidence level of P > 0.90. This means that the marketing in newer commercial complexes has more dependency on lateral location attributes. Similarly, Sheth and Sisodia (2002) have noted that increasing marketing productivity and profitability depends on the expansion of the marketing scopes such as the location attributes and services. Contrarily, Sun et al. (2011) have claimed that the higher annual revenues and interest rates usually are related to the lower rate of employees.

From the urban economy viewpoint, significant positive correlation coefficients were obtained between the commercial marketing and regional land price, accessibility to public transportation, and shopping store price (R from + 0.71 to + 0.75) in 2020 at a confidence level of P > 0.99. These relationships did have not any significant levels in 2010. It means that commercial construction in recent decades dominantly is related to regional land price components. The land is the basic element shaping the development and expansion of cities (Van der Molen 2002). Land price as an object for offering in the market is very important in determining the value and cost (Bao 2004) and a simple way to find the urban regional economic measurement (Ramyar 2019). In the recent decade, the land price market has severely changed the spatial structure and economy of Mashhad, such as commercial projects and marketing. As mentioned by Mirkatouli and Samadi (2017), a direct and positive correlation coefficient between land price and spatial development of building constructions suggests higher building construction and renewal mega projects dominantly are developed on the land with higher unit prices. This fact supports our results regarding the positive correlation coefficient between the marketing of commercial complexes and regional land prices in the time window of 2020.

Discussion and hypothesis test

The physical expansion and economic transformation of Mashhad City (Iran) in the last decades have influenced the distribution of trading and commercial complexes. On this basis, the city is still deficient in suitable solutions for its expansion and economic development. Hence, the present study can be categorized as novel research, which attempts to spatial and temporal analyze the reactions between urban commercial marketing and influencing economic factors in Mashhad City.

The original results revealed that despite the growing rate of construction of renewal mega projects and trading towers in the central district of Mashhad, the marketing revenues and commercial interests in the recent decade had no positive relationships with city center profits. Vice versa, the land price market has severely changed the spatial structure of Mashhad city, such as commercial projects. It means that the main motivation for commercial marketing can be considered as regional land price. The higher land price has driven a higher amount of marketing revenues. Hence, the main hypothesis of this research, regarding the religious motivation of the holy shrine in the central district of Mashhad to drive commercial marketing in the recent decade, is rejected.

At the country level, the national economy of Iran for a long time of decades certainly depended on oil and petroleum exports. Also, the country has experienced econometric fluctuations during the last decades due to the U.N. and U.S. sanctions. In this regard, the mean price of real estate in the urban regions has risen sharply equal to 500 folded from 1990 to 2022, influencing all commercial marketing indices such as stock traded values and total market capitalization (Daneshvar et al. 2024). Hence, the main driving power of land-based commercial marketing in urban areas, such as Mashhad, is the country-level fluctuations in the national economy instead of social and cultural behaviors. As an overall consequence, the religious motivation in the city center of Mashhad can affect the citizen’s social behaviors (Esnaashari and Sarvari 2021), but due to the national economic fluctuations, the main motivation for commercial marketing has been inclined to the profits of land price.

Conclusion, implication, and limitation

Conclusions and implications

In the present study, systemic research was carried out to recognize the economic factors affecting commercial marketing in Mashhad to fill the research gap, regarding the lack of relevant evidence between commercial land use and the urban economy. For this purpose, statistical and spatial data from 18 selected commercial complexes and trading towers were collected using official documents, fieldwork observations, and surveys of some interviews for time windows of 2010 and 2020. The total annual revenue, as the commercial marketing indicator, was chosen as the dependent variable. Besides, eight factors were chosen as independent factors, including total direct labor, lateral services, E-commerce percentage, shopping store price, accessibility to public transportation, regional land price, and regional population density, in addition to a constant factor of distance to the holy shrine in central district of the city.

From a commercial viewpoint, significant positive correlation coefficients were obtained between commercial marketing and direct labor and lateral services (R from + 0.66 to + 0.70), revealing the marketing dependency with lateral location attributes and services in 2020. Thus, from an urban economic viewpoint, significant positive correlation coefficients were obtained between the commercial marketing and regional land price and shopping store price (R from + 0.71 to + 0.75) revealing the marketing dependency with land market components in 2020 instead of the previous tendency to the religious center of the city (R = + 0.62) in 2010. It means that the main motivation for commercial marketing in Mashhad City has transferred from holy shrine values to regional land prices. This evidence can be considered as an alert for the future identity of the city. Our research findings will provide a set of recommendations to revive the traditional patterns of commercial marketing in the city center instead of the modern trading towers and complexes. Due to the decrease in profitability of the commercial complexes within the recent decade, the commercial activities should be revised based on the social and cultural capabilities of the urban zones in Mashhad. The changes in the spatial structure of the city should be limited in some given zones to control the land price effects on the commercial and residential parts of the city.

Previous worldwide studies dominantly considered the physical factors to simulate urban growth and urban land development (e.g., Arsanjani et al. 2013b; Munshi et al. 2014; Gharbia et al. 2016, Malik and Abdalla 2017). Hence, the main implication of the present study is the empirical evaluation of an econometric procedure in urban planning to identify the actual factors affecting commercial marketing and allocation. Besides, another academic implication of this research is to associate the theoretical background of the relationships between urban commercial land uses, commercial marketing revenues, and economic factors, e.g., land prices and shopping store prices, which will improve sustainability in urban spatial development studies.

Limitations and recommendations for future research

The paper has some limitations, including sample and time frame limitations: selectivity in economic factors due to data availability, and limited impact of results regarding the long-term implications and specific policy recommendations for urban planning. The main limitation of this research is the restricted case studies (18 cases) and time intervals (2 periods), which depended on the limited accessibility to official input data and fieldwork curbs. To solve this limitation, a similar analysis should be repeated in future studies using greater data sampling and multiple time windows. Based on the limitations, the following recommendations can be developed for future research: expanding sample size and time span in future studies to encompass a broader range of commercial complexes and extending over a longer time period to enhance the generalizability and credibility of conclusions, considering additional variables that may influence commercial marketing effectiveness, such as consumer behavior and macroeconomic factors. Our study also addressed the interactions between commercial marketing and economic factors that dominantly represented the daytime activities and economies, while future studies could consider the new aspects of urban nighttime economies, already defined by Hadfield (2014) and Talebian and Riza (2020), to explore the hidden roles of commercial complexes and constructions in the social and economic environments of Mashhad City.