1 Climate change—global outlook

Climate alteration is an issue of global concern with alarming consequences for human cultures, economy and ecosystems. The climate of earth has been changing almost a million years, but the current rate of change is significantly rapid than, what can be explained only by natural processes. The overwhelming consensus among scientists is that human activities are the principal driver behind the accelerating pace of climate change [50]. Numerous investigations have shown that the world is already experiencing the effects of climate shifts. Increasing temperatures have resulted in more recurrent and extreme heat waves, which have a considerable impact on human health and productivity [56]. Due to climate change, there has been intense storms and droughts, affecting water supply and food security in many countries. Furthermore, sea-level rise is inducing coastal flooding and erosion, which endangers residents and infrastructure in low-lying regions [56].

The main causes of climate change are the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CO2, CH4, and N2O, and their abundance in the atmosphere is significantly enhanced by vehicular usage, agricultural activities, industrial development, and combusting fossil fuels [45]. Latest report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicated that worldwide CO2 emissions from energy use increased by 4.8% in 2021, after a slight reduction in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic [54]. While solar cycles, seismic activity, and volcanic eruptions are examples of natural phenomena that contribute to degradation of environment, human interventions are alarmingly, accelerating the global GHG emissions since, resulting in an imbalanced natural atmosphere, environmental degradation and global warming [96]. It is therefore essential to handle with the climate shift issues by cutting greenhouse gas emissions and creating environmentally friendly activities would help to lessen their detrimental effects [75].

1.1 Climate change—alarming threat to agriculture

Agriculture is impacted significantly by climate change, and agriculture is crucial to both sustainable development and food production. The implications of diverse climate change on agriculture, includes variations in temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather. These detrimental effects are concerning with regard to the developing nations where agriculture performs an essential part in assuring both economic growth and food security. Pakistan, an agricultural country where most of its people are directly or indirectly associated with the agriculture sector, is also extremely susceptible to natural disasters brought on by shifting climate.

2 Direct consequences of climate change on agriculture

2.1 Temperature changes

Significant temperature variations induced by climate change directly influence the crop productivity. Increasing temperatures lead to heightened levels of heat and water-related pressures, which lowers agricultural output. The rising temperature of the atmosphere is influenced by the increase in greenhouse gases. Heat waves in the atmosphere are absorbed by infrared-active gases, mainly carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3), and water vapor (H2O) which subsequently warm up the earth in a phenomenon recognized as the greenhouse effect [69]. The average global temperature has risen by 1.1–.2 °C since 1850. Nevertheless, the average worldwide land temperature has risen around twofold as much as the oceans due to the more pronounced temperature changes in landmasses. In contrast to the average temperature between 1951 and 1980, global temperatures of land have increased by 1.32 ± 0.04 °C, while ocean surface temperatures (excluding sea ice areas) have increased by 0.59 ± 0.06 °C. Additionally, because it contains a greater proportion of landmasses than the Southern Hemisphere, the Northern Hemisphere has demonstrated a higher average temperature. Polar regions have seen an unprecedented rise in temperature, which has negative consequences for instance melting glaciers [66]. It is imperative to curtail greenhouse gas emissions to prevent the Earth’s temperature from surpassing a 2 °C increase above pre-industrial levels. The mean sea level has risen due to global warming in two ways. Both the expansion of the water’s volume due to warming and the melting of glaciers, the polar ice cap, and the Atlantic ice shelf are causing the ocean to grow in size. Over the last three millennia, the average sea level has risen faster since 1900 than it has in any preceding century [94]. Futuristic predictions of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimate that the average world temperature will rise by 2 °C by 2100 and 4.2 °C by 2400 [55]. At the current radioactive force level, exceeding 2 °C by 2100 does not appear to occur. However, the risk is increasing, primarily as a result of the radioactive forces stabilizing above 400 ppm of CO2 [40].

Extreme temperature conditions that have emerged in Pakistan present a severe danger to food security and the sustainability of agricultural systems. Due to its diverse climate zones, Pakistan is prone to temperature extremes including heat waves and cold waves. Increasing temperatures have impacted agricultural productivity through multiple processes [33], including increased water stress, changed crop phenology, and increased pest and disease pressure. Moreover, heat stress can reduce crop yields, degrade crop quality, and interfere with pollination at crucial growth phases [76]. Furthermore, hot weather exacerbates vulnerability of heat-sensitive plants like wheat, rice, and maize [4]. Conversely, due to frost and freezing temperatures, extreme cold events, particularly in Pakistan’s north, have also put agricultural systems in danger. Frost deteriorates plant tissues, reducing yields and quality and quantity of crops [49]. The production and health of livestock are also impacted by cold waves, further jeopardizing the livelihoods of farmers who depend on animal husbandry.

2.2 Precipitation changes

Modifications to the patterns of precipitation are another effect of climate change that contribute to both droughts and floods. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations explicitly stated in its Sixth Assessment Synthesis Report that human activities and rapid industrial development have increased the yearly concentration of greenhouse gases, which has caused the average global surface temperature to rise by approximately 1.09 °C in just ten years (2011–2020) [56]. The panel also stated that as a result of global warming, extreme precipitation events will surely occur more frequently [121, 122]. Flood magnitude and severity will be catastrophically affected by climate change, particularly in agriculture, which is a major source of income for people and a big driver of the economies of many countries [103]. Rural residents, especially in developing nations, are frequently vulnerable to floods because they have lesser resources as well as adaptive capacity [90]. Ecological and climatic changes are primarily responsible for the severity and intensity of flood disasters [61, 62]. Inaccurately recognizing how different climatic conditions affect agricultural systems will not only negatively damage food production and safety but also obstruct attempts to enhance sustainable development and eliminate poverty [52]. The drastic changes in precipitation patterns can cause infrastructure damage and agricultural loss. Droughts have caused a decrease in agricultural productivity and food security in numerous regions while unusual rainfalls have deteriorated the ripe crops. A recent study in Ethiopia reported that decreased maize and teff yields resulted from increased rainfall variability [105]. Likewise, reduced rainfall in Sub-Saharan African region led to lesser maize productivity, decreased precipitation has resulted in a reduction in maize crop yields, which is the main staple food in the region [20]. Among the most important impacts of global climate alteration in Pakistan is the escalation in flood frequency and intensity. According to a report by the World Bank, Pakistan ranks among the nation’s most susceptible to flooding globally [13]. In 2022, the country has experienced several major floods which were the worst in the country’s history, which caused significant harm to standing crops including wheat, rice, millet, sorghum, sugar cane and cotton particularly in Sindh and Baluchistan provinces [1]. These crop damages caused $1.3 billion losses to the country’s economy [86]. Pakistan experiences considerable variability in rainfall due to its diverse climatic regions. However, climate change is expected to further exacerbate this variability, resulting in heightened occurrences and severity of floods [1]. Intense rainfall events and flooding has led to soil erosion, nutrient leaching, and water logging, all of which can harmed crop health and reduced yields [119]. Floods damaged infrastructure, washing away crops, and disrupting agricultural activities [6] and [53]). Monthly climatology of minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean temperature and precipitation from 1991 to 2020 of Pakistan adapted from World Climate Change Knowledge Portal) has been shown in Fig. 1.

Fig. 1
figure 1

(Adapted from World Climate Change Knowledge Portal)

Monthly climatology of minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean temperature and precipitation from 1991–2020 of Pakistan

Full size image

2.3 Alteration in soil quality and fertilizer consumption

Agricultural systems are presented by enormous problems due to climate alterations influences the soil quality and fertilizer use. The yield and sustainability of agriculture may suffer as a result of the shifting climatic circumstances brought on by climate change [39]. One of the main effects is soil deterioration, which occurs as a result of things like intensified rainfall and extreme weather events that cause nutrient leaching, erosion, and compaction. Important topsoil is removed through these processes, which lowers its fertility and restricts crop development. The growth of roots and the absorption of nutrients can also be hampered by soil compaction, which can be worse by altering precipitation patterns and temperatures [61, 62]. Additionally, nitrogen cycle in the soil is disturbed by climate change. The natural processes that ensure nutrient availability can be hampered by variations in temperature, moisture content, and microbial activity [89]. For instance, increased evaporation rates and warmer temperatures can cause the soil to become less moist, which will influence microbial activity and nutrient release [51]. Nutrient deficits and imbalances may occur, which would prevent crops from growing and developing to their full potential. Climate change can affect soil pH levels in addition to disrupting the nitrogen cycle. Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels cause soil to become more acidic, which negatively impacts ability of plant to absorb nutrients [42]. Crop productivity is impacted by acidic soils because they limit the availability of essential nutrients including calcium, magnesium, and phosphorus along with affecting carbon sequestration [34].

The alteration of soil organic matter is another effect of climate shift on agriculture. Increased microbial activity and higher temperatures due to climate change accelerate the breakdown of organic materials in the soil [115]. As a consequence, the quantity of organic carbon in the soil decreases, which is crucial for preserving soil structure, water-holding ability and nutrient retention. The loss of soil organic matter has a harmful impact on soil fertility and lowers crop production [116]. Moreover, modifications to fertilizer practices may be necessary due to the changing climate [85]. To ensure that crops receive the right amount of nutrients, fertilizer formulations, application rates, and timing must be carefully considered in light of variations in growth patterns, water availability, and temperature regimes. Unbalanced nutrient levels, decreased nutrient usage effectiveness, and higher environmental dangers can result from a failure to adjust to climatic changes [22].

3 Indirect consequences of adverse climate change

3.1 Reduced agriculture output: global vs local context

The changing climatic patterns including rainfall and temperature potentially inhibit the crop yields. Increased temperatures, erratic precipitation, carbon dioxide fertilization and irrigation, have varied effects contingent upon the specific crop, where it is grown, and variability of these factors themselves [77]. The influence of climate alteration on agriculture production also differs by region and method of irrigation. As a result of shortened growing seasons, most likely, many crops will yield less [93]. Temperature increases of 2 °C in both temperate and tropical locations are expected to result in a decline in the projected total yield of wheat, rice, and maize [118]. Tropical areas are more influenced by climate shifts overall because crops of tropical areas have higher temperature optimums, thus are more vulnerable to elevated temperature stress [69]. In addition to temperature and precipitation, humidity and wind speed are additional variables that impact agricultural productivity. The application of machine learning algorithms in crop research and climate change research has been growing in popularity. Han et al. [46], demonstrated that when it comes to estimating China’s winter wheat production, the Random Forest approach outperforms both Gaussian Process Regression and Support Vector Machine. Zhi et al. [123] found that technology inputs are critical to China’s output of wheat, rice, and maize using the boosted regression trees algorithm. Numerous crop models have been found to indicate that the climate accounts for between 39 and 20% of the variation in wheat yield in the North China Plain [101]. Australia’s total wheat yield was predicted to decrease due to climate change, and it was discovered that heat stress decreased the output of winter wheat by 2.0–4.0% in the northern part of China’s winter wheat planting area [23]. Most parts of the world are likely to experience increased water shortages as a result of climate change, with an increase in drought-affected regions from 15.4 to 44.0% by 2100. The most vulnerable region in this regard is Africa. Under this scenario the anticipated yield decline of major crops would be more than 50% by 2050 and by nearly 90% by 2100 [69].

Furthermore, it has been shown that rising temperatures reduce yield; however, rising precipitation is probably going to mitigate or neutralize the effects of escalating temperatures [59]. Crop production, as seen in Iran under the influence of climatic variables, is influenced by kind of crop, climate state, and effect of CO2 fertilization [59]. As climate change affects weather patterns and climate components like temperature and rainfall, it has a negative effect on rain-fed farming systems in particular. These changes reduce crop productivity and increase crop failure incidents. Due to extreme weather events, maize and other crops have decreased in the Bamenda highlands of Cameroon. This can be explained by the mean rainfall coefficient of variation (CV) of 23.3% [108]. There is statistical evidence that the temperature in Veracruz, Mexico, affects the yield of coffee. Furthermore, it was found that there are signs of a 34% decline in current coffee production, depicting that its coffee production may not be lucrative for the farmers in the years to come [69].

Pakistan is the world’s fifth most vulnerable state to climate change. The consequences of climate change will be catastrophic since urbanization and population growth in Pakistan take place simultaneously [7]. Pakistan is currently farming nearly all of its arable land in an effort to meet the sustainable food security standard [102]. Over the past few years, Pakistan has also increasingly faced the threat of significant floods and prolonged droughts mainly because of irregularities in the monsoon season and annual rainfall Thus, Pakistan’s agriculture, water security, flood security, and energy security are consistently vulnerable to climatic shifts [67]. Moreover, crops that make up only 4–5% of GDP are irrigated with 80% of the water during irrigation which depicts that Pakistan places a high value on irrigation [44] Various farming methods and irrigation techniques have been utilized in this regard which makes the crop more vulnerable to climate extremities. Just as in spate and irrigated farming systems, crops are extremely sensitive to variations in the temperature and quantity of water [102].

The Crops of both the rabi and kharif seasons are cultivated in Pakistan. The significant rabi crop is Wheat, whereas rice, maize, turmeric, and sugarcane are prominent kharif crops. Major kharif crops grown in Pakistan are sugarcane in February, cotton in March–May, rice in June–July, and maize in July–August. Nevertheless, our major crops’ crop production system is threatened by climate change (wheat, cotton, maize, sugarcane and rice). Temperatures are predicted to rise by 3 °C by 2040 and 5–6 °C towards the end of the century, which will result in a 50% reduction in wheat production for Asian countries. It is further anticipated that as temperatures rise, overall agricultural production will decline by 8% to 10% [25]. According to a case study conducted by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria and The World Bank Knowledge Portal, by 2080, the productivity of all major cereals and crops will decrease, with the greatest possible reduction in wheat production [21]. According to Davidson [26] the effects vary from crop to crop. In recent years, climate change has resulted in a 14.7 percent decrease in wheat yield and a 20.5 percent increase in rice market prices [48]. These terrible prospects are concerning and require Pakistan to intervene significantly in its adjustment process [102]. Table 1 displays the targeted expected percentage changes in major crop yield (2020–2080) under the A2 scenario relative to the baseline yield (1961–1990), adapted from the data retrieved from World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.

Table 1 Projected percentage changes in major crops yield (2020–2080) compared to baseline yield (1961–1990) under A2 scenario
Full size table

3.2 Disruption in supply chain

Among the most distinguished consequences of climate shift is the likely increase in undernourishment and food poverty aroused mainly due to disrupted supply chain. The altered climatic associated catastrophes have the power to ruin important public assets, vital infrastructure, and crops, which would be detrimental to domestic income as well as food security. This damages livelihoods and thereby leading to increased poverty. Another factor causing continued change of climate is the increasing sea level, which puts the livelihoods of inhabitants of river deltas and coastal communities at even greater risk. The amount and consistency of irrigation water available, as well as the patterns of floods and droughts, will all be impacted by the rapid thawing of glaciers [26]. In this regard, Pakistan’s agricultural supply chain is poorly organized mainly because of ineffective processing, storage, and logistics [10]. Furthermore, the entire supply chain of livestock systems, from manufacturing through handling, retailing, transport, storage, and consumption, has also been significantly influenced by climate change [28, 41]. The aquatic food web is impacted by changes in the nitrogen cycle, plankton productivity, and ocean warming [11]. The greatest impact is felt in low-income nations and regions that are already prone to food insecurity; this results in food shortages, a decline in the nutritional quality of food, and long-term negative health effects [78] However, the growing frequency and intensity of extreme weather pose a considerable threat in areas with limited access to heating and cooling systems [38].

3.3 Frequent disease outbreak

The development and survival of pathogens are most likely to be influenced by projected climate change [16]. It is expected that a crop will eventually become more susceptible to specific pests, diseases, and weeds since warmer, more humid weather is more conducive to pest growth. However, it will differ accordingly on the ability of the pests to adjust to climate change as well as from place to region. It is estimated that an increase of one degree in temperature will lead to a 10–25% rise in losses due to insect pest invasion [95]. Changing weather therefore has the potential to boost pest numbers and relocation, which could have deleterious effects on agricultural viability and production, as the pest population is reliant on mostly on abiotic variables like temperature and humidity [16]. Invertebrate pests, as well as plant pathogens such as bacteria (including phytoplasmas), fungi, nematodes, and oomycetes, as well as viroids, viruses, and their vectors, will be directly and indirectly impacted by rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, rising temperatures, altered water availability, and an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. As air humidity increases, the fungus Sclerotinia sclerotiorum becomes more pathogenic; disease growth in lettuce plants peaks when air relative humidity reaches 80% [104]. According to Sturrock et al. [99], the impact of several forest diseases would either increase or decrease depending on whether the temperature’s fluctuations. Chaloner et al. [19] integrated fungal and oomycete plant pathogen data with global gridded crop models to show that, for the majority of crops, both yields and the temperature-dependent infection risk are expected to rise in high latitudes, while crop productivity will likely stay stable or even fall in the tropics and the risk of infection is expected to decrease.

In particular, climate change is predicted, to trouble the development and metabolic rates of insects especially in temperate regions [29]. Climate change has made more places conducive to pest invasion. The habitat appropriateness of the three common African bug species, Tuta absoluta, Ceratitis cosyra, and Bactrocera invadens, is rising across the entire continent, particularly in regions near their ideal habitat [15]. Increased crop weed infestation is another issue that is impacted by climate change. Increases in concentration of CO2 cause C3 weeds to react more forcefully. While C4 weeds are less competitive in C3 plants, C3 weeds are a significant issue for C4 plants [64]. Weeds are expanding their geographic range due to the effects of climate change, and managing them will only be practical when under new management techniques are devised while taking climate change under consideration [69].

3.4 Spiked food prices/commodity speculation

Reduced crop yields have the potential to increase food prices and negatively affect agricultural prosperity worldwide, with a 0.3% annual loss in prospective global GDP by 2100 [69]. Climate variation worsens the state of food uncertainty and impoverishment particularly in South Asian Nations by having a negative impact on the output of agriculture and natural resource availability. This will negatively impact the means of subsistence for millions of people in the area [9, 12, 114]. Over 70% of people in the Asian region depend on agriculture for their livelihood, it employs nearly 60 percent of the workforce and provides 22% of the gross domestic product (GDP) for the area [114]. The annual maximum temperature in South Asia (SA) is expected to increase up to 1.4–1.8 °C in 2030, while 2.1–2.6 °C in 2050, thereby 12% more area will be exposed to heat stress in 2030, while in 2050, 21% area will be more affected [106]. As per projections, heat-induced stress could potentially affect approximately half of the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP), making it unsuitable for the cultivation of wheat by 2050 [9]. Because of the more erratic monsoon and the water melted from glaciers, even a somewhat slight warming of SA by just 1.5–2 °C can pose a considerable negative effect on the accessibility and stability of water resources, threatening future agricultural outputs [113]. According to projections, climate shift would cause food prices to increase two and a half times faster for main food crops (such as rice, maize, wheat and soybeans) and one and a half times faster for livestock-related goods (such as beef, pig, lamb, and chicken) between 2000 and 2050 [5]. Additionally, some research indicates that climate change has a negative impact on the food supply in North and East African nations. According to a study conducted by a Finnish research institute, if greenhouse gas emissions are not regulated, almost 30% of the world’s food supply will be in a zero-yield state by the end of the twenty-first century [101].

It is projected that the mean overall financial losses for Bangladesh will be 9.4%, Bhutan 6.6%, India 8.7%, Maldives 12.6%, Nepal 9.9%, and Sri Lanka 6.5%. The losses are estimated to be 12.6% for the Maldives. Since over 70% of people in SA depend on agriculture for their livelihood, about 60% of the labor force is employed by it, and 22% of the region’s GDP is generated by it [114]. The ultimate influence of climate on reduced agriculture production would definitely leads to spiked food prices and reduced availability of food rendered limited access to community. Low-income producers and consumers are likely to be the most affected by climatic extremities because of their limited ability to cope [110].

Since weather extremities directly affects the crop and livestock production, thus, smallholder farmers whose livelihoods are heavily reliant on rain fed agriculture are thought to be disproportionately susceptible to climate change’s effects, whether for their own consumption or for sale [65]. Finally, if climate-related shocks to food production result in price rises for food, this will have an impact on consumers in rural and urban areas’ ability to buy food, jeopardizing their ability to maintain a healthy diet [65].

3.5 Risks to food safety and security: challenge to meet up global food demand

Most of the reviewed literature focus mainly the connection between food risks and climate change rather than highlighting the linkage between food safety and climate change. However climatic factors influence the food risks both in terms of security and safety point of view. In our study we have focus briefly on both the aspects of climate associated food risks. Since average temperature and CO2 concentrations both affect vegetation growth, rising one could theoretically lead to an increase in crops, which would improve the availability of food for both an expanding human population and animals. If this doesn’t happen, it could be because of other consequences of climate change, like a rise in the frequency of extreme weather events (like powerful heat waves, floods, and severe droughts). These effects could have a harmful effect on crop output as well the other sectors involved in the production of food, thus leading to reduce in food supply and enhanced food insecurity [71].

The expanding affluence of a sizable segment of the population in developing countries poses a danger to the ability of current livestock systems to meet the rising demand. This demand has hastened the burning of forests in several nations [109] in order to produce crops and create pastures for raising large ruminants. The quality, quantity, and equitable distribution of food are therefore threatened by several effects of climate change, putting populations of dry and semi-arid region at risk of malnutrition [37, 38]. Moreover, due to implications on livelihoods and health hazards, especially among susceptible populations, it is conceivable that all facets of food security (including availability, access, stability, and utilization) could be indirectly influenced [37]. For instance, climate change has a significant effect on small-scale farming in West Africa because of poor infrastructure, communication gaps, environmental deterioration, and weak farmer groups [98]. Further, due to the decreasing availability of local goods, altered food preparation and storage methods, and decreased number of food festivals, traditional food systems, both tangible and intangible, are disturbed by frequent natural disasters [28]. Furthermore, it is predicted that by 2050, the Solomon Islands’ total fish demand will exceed fish production, which will have a substantial effect on food security as, per-capita consumption will decline [69]. Similarly, with the rising worldwide temperature particularly during summer, food-borne illnesses of humans become more common, because of the lengthened summer season, thereby enhancing the risks associated with food safety [71].

3.6 Consequences on sustainable development goals

The climate shift effects on agriculture are significantly challenging for worldwide nutritional sufficiency and objectives for sustainable development [79]. The drop of agricultural productivity associated with climate alteration is the foremost cause of food insecurity and malnutrition. Rehman et al. [90] reported that South Asian regions are vulnerable to soil and land degradation, which could be explained by its relatively small land area—roughly 3.4% of the world total—combined with a high population—roughly 25% of the estimated 1.75 billion people on the planet. Therefore, the negative effects in this area could hinder agricultural productivity [36]. The loss of agricultural productivity can also lead to poverty, exacerbating existing social and economic inequalities. Climate change may results in shift in land suitability for farming with high-altitude experiences increased crop production, while low-altitude areas may see a decline in crop yields [56]. Other key crops of Pakistan including cotton, maize, sugar cane and pulses are also recently experiencing extremely slow and skewed growth rates [1]. Along with the growing issue of food insecurity, the irregular growth performance of such important crops can not only lower domestic income and employment but also impair the performance of related production businesses.

Moreover, climate change can lead to conflict, migration, and social instability, further exacerbating the influence on food security. Changing Climate has significant implications for attaining the sustainable development goals, including decreasing poverty, promoting sustainable agriculture, and combating climate change [111]. Sustainable agriculture is essential for achieving food security and reducing poverty, but the adverse effects of climate alterations particularly on biodiversity and natural resources are the biggest hindrances in way of achieving these goals. The summary of direct and indirect effects posed by climate change on agriculture and food security has been mentioned (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2
figure 2

Direct and indirect influences of climatic change on agriculture and food security

Full size image

4 Possible mitigation and adaptive strategies

It is impossible to overestimate the importance of local solutions to global environmental problems since they are essential in creating sustainable futures.

Enhancing community resilience requires a variety of adaptation options, from cutting-edge technical solutions to conventional knowledge-based approaches [100]. Climate change adaptation entails any action intended to decrease susceptibility and increase the system’s resilience. Adaptation is crucial for agriculture of South Asian regions in particular because: (1) Agriculture being significant income’s source; (2) it is mostly dependent on rain, making it susceptible to severe weather; (3) it is spread out across small, less than a hectare-sized plots of land, making it difficult for farmers to manage changing climate conditions; Insufficient organizations and regulations to tackle climate hazards in farming, a less advanced market for risk and insurance to encourage climate shift adaptation, inadequate institutions and regulations, rising demand from different industries for water and land, primarily influenced by the search for substitute agricultural methods, and to maintain regional food security, particularly for the underprivileged. Given the significant variance in socioeconomic circumstances and agro-ecosystems, adaptation methods must take into account cultural and environmental contexts locally, regionally, and nationally [2, 17]. In this context the several adaptation measures must be taken into consideration.

4.1 Managing agricultural practices

To facilitate adaptation, a lot of modern agricultural management techniques could be improved as well as scaled up. Numerous adaptation options, such as enhanced practices used on farms as well as biophysical measures, are extensively investigated [121, 122]. These encompass enhancing soil organic content, refining agricultural land management practices, leveraging indigenous genetic diversity, optimizing livestock husbandry techniques, integrating crop-livestock systems, employing diversified cropping methods, enhancing grazing land stewardship, increasing agricultural productivity, mitigating soil erosion, and adopting agroecological methodologies. These measures represent a focal point of research, reflecting a concerted effort to address the multifaceted challenges within the realm of agriculture [117].

4.2 Land/soil and water management

Utilizing sustainable land management approaches like preservation farming, agroforestry, sustainable intensification, and optimized cropping systems aids in adapting to climate fluctuations. Much international emphasis has recently been paid to sustainable intensification [58]. Sustainable strengthening recognizes the imperative of preserving additional ecosystem services and fortifying resilience to shocks as essential components for achieving heightened productivity Sustainable agriculture approaches might include integrated methods for managing pests and soil fertility, better and efficient use of water and nutrients. Soil management has been recognized as one of the most important strategies for coping with climate change, since soil contains all the nutrients needed for agricultural growth [107]. Rising variability in the climate and harsh weather phenomenon such as torrential downpours and powerful winds, hastened the soil destruction. Therefore, effective management strategies must be adopted to minimize the soil disruption. In semi-arid regions, to counteract wind-driven soil erosion, planting trees and creating hedgerows are used; humid and coastal areas also frequently use vegetation cover, contour soil turns over, and contour windbreaks. Terrace gardening and water harvesting in mountainous areas assist control soil erosion [30]. Cropping systems can react to water stress, extra water from untimely rainfall, and extreme temperatures by switching to minimal tillage while retaining residue. As indicated by Sapkota et al. [91], the productivity of irrigation water can be increased, compared to traditional agricultural systems by 66–100% by changing the tillage patterns and mitigates the effects of elevated temperatures, leading to a reduction in canopy temperature by 1–4 °C. This makes them well suited to situations involving water and heat stress. One key strategy for reducing climate change and enhancing soil quality is the sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC). The physical qualities of soil can be improved by even a little increase in SOC, which could boost the soil’s resistance to stress and aid in climate change adaption [80, 84, 120]. In soils that have been farmed for 100 years or more, conventional agricultural cropping patterns and extensive tillage have decreased soil carbon by 30 to 50% [63].

Moreover, it has been suggested that these methods raise the soil’s water content. Consequently, these methods limit the risk of crop loss while protecting the farmer from the devastation brought on by drought. Sustainable agriculture is ultimately aided by improved soil management, which also preserves soil quality and increases the efficiency of water use.

4.3 Crop diversification, cropping system optimization

Diversification of crops in time and location (altering crop rotation or cropping systems) can be a reasonable and economical strategy to increase the agricultural system’s resilience to climate change [68]. Increased diversity in production systems enhances their capacity to bolster food and nutritional security amidst climate change challenges. Furthermore, various methods of production are essential for offering services related to ecosystem regulation, which include things like controlling soil erosion, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, cycling nutrients, sequestering carbon, and regulating hydrological processes [24]. Crop diversity plays role in enhancing the capacity to control pest outbreaks and resistance to climate shifts by reducing the risk of disease transmission brought on by elevated climatic unpredictability and, consequently, buffering crop output under climate related stress. For example, disease-prone rice cultivars had an 89% increased yield and 94% decreased chance of fungal blast when cultivated in combinations with resistant types over broad areas of land [27].

An increase in temperature has the potential to extend the growing season in frost-prone regions, particularly in temperate and arctic zones. This extension opens the possibility for cultivating longer-maturing seasonal varieties that can yield better results [2]. By prolonging the planting season, there is potential for cultivating additional crops annually. In cases where elevated temperatures persistently exceed critical thresholds during warmer months, the consideration of a split season with a brief summer fallow becomes conceivable, particularly for short-period crops like wheat, barley, cereals, and various vegetable crops [2].

4.4 Sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC)

Yearly cropping systems have potential for sequestering carbon that has not yet been fully utilized. Negative emissions technologies (NETs), also known as active atmospheric CO2 removal techniques, are required in addition to reducing GHG emissions in order to achieve net decreases in CO2 and prevent the worst effects of climate change [74]. The implementation of atmospheric CO2 removal technologies is imperative, with the goal of reaching annual levels of approximately 10 Gt CO2 by 2050 and 20 Gt CO2 by 2100 [74]. Sequestering carbon in soil is the most scalable and least costly option for CO2 removal in the coming decades [74]. Even though soil carbon has clearly decreased over the past century, agricultural soils have the capacity to store all of the CO2 that is currently in the atmosphere [31].

According to Ogle et al. [82], the majority of initiatives for employing annual crop system for SOC have concentrated on managing adjustments initially made for rhizospheric health. Reduced tillage, enhanced residue retention, and cover crops are a few strategic examples utilized to boost above-ground plant biomass retained in the field per unit area annually [70]. The majority of reports on impact of soil carbon management are only concerned with upper 30 cm soil layer, despite the fact that this is where most carbon imports are anticipated to occur [82]. The soil carbon in upper 30 cm layer is, however, least resilient and can respire back into CO2 in a few years. To attain larger as well as long-lasting SOC in agricultural, soil carbon inputs must be injected deeper into the soil [83]. This will necessitate changing the genetic makeup of crops. Nevertheless, for annual cropping systems to cut inputs and attain annual carbon sequestration of up to tonnes per hectare, genetic alterations are required [81].

4.5 Climate smart optimized agriculture

In Pakistan, where agriculture is vital to the country’s social structure, economy, and culture, Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) offers tremendous potential. Climate change poses an increasing threat to agriculturally dependent communities [35]. These changes hinder a nation’s economic growth and reverse years of progress. Numerous CSA metrics are currently in use across the country, wherein stronger and more prosperous agricultural systems can be obtained by utilizing of existing funds, opening up new funding sources, promoting ecologically friendly practices, and giving institutions the authority to act. Pakistani economy can be strengthened by CSA through the use of cutting-edge technology such as laser land leveling and solar-powered irrigation systems, as well as management adjustments including crop diversification, appropriate cropping patterns, and advanced planting dates [47]. In the eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP), crop insurance, weather warning services, and laser land levelling (LLL) are the most widely used CSA technologies. In contrast, farmers in the western IGP prefer direct sowing, LLL, zero tillage and synchronization irrigation with crop insurance [9].

4.6 Developing resilient varieties

The most important action that the government must do is to fund research to develop a better-yielding array of agricultural and livestock varieties that are heat-resistant, drought-tolerant, and pest-resistant. Scuba rice, a flood-resistant rice variety, can adapt to these excessive water stressors by withstanding 17 days of total submersion and producing up to 3 tonnes per hectare of rice during flash floods [9]. Similarly, drought tolerant rice cultivars can increase yields up to 2–9% [72]. Another effect of climate change is a rise in soil salinity, particularly in agricultural areas near the ocean. For instance, more than 30% of the country’s cultivable land is located in coastal regions, which poses a severe threat to Asian countries including Bangladesh. Consequently, the salt tolerant rice cultivars CSR 26 and CSR 43 were developed for overcoming the climate challenges in Bangladesh [9].

4.7 Remote sensing and satellite imaging for future prediction for vulnerable ecosystem

Remote sensing plays a crucial role in predicting climate change impact on agriculture. For instance, vegetation monitoring can be done using satellites equipped with sensors and thus can measure the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Theses indices would provide information regarding the crop health and vigor thereby help out the scientists to track changes in plant growth patterns and detect potential stress induced by climate change [3]. Another type of remote sensing application is Land Surface Temperature (LST) Mapping, which is the measure of the temperature of earth’s surface. By monitoring LST, scientists can identify areas experiencing excessive heat or cooling trends, enabling them to predict the impact on crop growth and productivity.

In order to analyse and forecast climate change impact on food security (FS), a recent study used Landsat and MODIS satellite images in addition to predisposed variables such as land surface temperature (LST), evapotranspiration, precipitation, sunny days, cloud ratio, soil salinity, soil moisture, groundwater quality, soil types, digital elevation model, slope, and aspect. Analytical network process (ANP) model and a remote sensing-based strategy were utilized to pinpoint regions damaged by frost. The results demonstrated a correlation between the decline in AL and the rise in LST, evapo-transpiration, cloud ratio and soil salinity. In addition, AL reduced with precipitation, bright days, soil moisture as well as quality of ground water. Furthermore, it was discovered that areas affected with frost increase with LST, evapotranspiration, cloud ratio, elevation, slope and aspect [60]. The land use/land cover map and associated change detections were predicted using the Cellular Automata Markov (CA_Markov) model on multidate satellite images from Sentinel 2A, Landsat Oli-8, and ETM collected in 2017, 2013 and 2003, respectively. Furthermore, Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) was incorporated into GIS system to estimate loss of soil and to visualize the danger of erosion for certain years. This technique was shown to be effective for predicting LUCC and precisely estimating the volume of soil losses in the future [32]. Nevertheless, remote sensing and satellite imaging provide valuable data for monitoring, analyzing, and predicting climate change impacts on agriculture. These tools enhance our understanding of environmental changes, assist in decision-making, and enable proactive measures to maintain availability of food and eco-friendly agricultural practices amidst climate change [32].

4.8 Crop insurance

In some South Asian nations, crop insurance plan has been adopted on basis of area index as a tool to protect impoverished farmers’ livelihoods during climatic extremes. Based on weather and yield indices, the two main crop insurance programs in India use an area-based methodology that eliminates individual risk. Through area-weather insurance products, crop losses resulting from weather anomalies over insured territories are compensated. These insurance products, which are based on term sheets generated from historical weather datasets and typically cover horticulture and plantation crops, have grown in popularity because of how easily they can be implemented. Crop yield losses over insured territories are covered by area-yield insurance products, and current research focuses on enhancing crop loss assessment in these insurance mechanisms through data-driven approaches. Although the two systems deal with the effects of climate on agricultural yields, area-yield crop insurance plans have historically had a greater market share [73].

Another, The National Insurance Board launched crop insurance in Nepal in 2013. In its budget for 2013–2014, the Nepalese government included NRs. 135 million as funding for its agriculture insurance programme, which will continue to receive funding. Farmers might also be insured through regional cooperatives through micro-level efforts. For instance, the Rupendehi district of Nepal has been home to the CGIAR research program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS) for the past few years. Local farmers developed an association over there, that offers insurance policies to small-scale farmers cultivating wheat and paddy on holdings as small as 1.33 ha [92]. Farmers receive reimbursement for up to 80% of their loss in case of crop damage, whereby they are required to pay 15% of their anticipated crop yield as insurance. Crop insurance was implemented in Bangladesh in 1977 by the government-owned Sadharan Bima Company (SBC), and it was abandoned in 1996 [18]. The main goal of the insurance policy was to compensate farmers for agricultural losses inflicted by floods, cyclones, hail, wind, drought, plant diseases, pests, and insects. Since paddy, wheat and jute yields insured, coverage provides 80% of the projected value of production. Nevertheless, Bangladesh did not have success with this scheme. The main problems with the limitations include the difficulties in calculating crop loss owing to specific meteorological conditions and moral hazards [57].

Agriculture insurance is crucial for Pakistan because, while being the foundation of the country’s economy, it is vulnerable to climate-related disasters that jeopardize smallholder farmers’ livelihoods because they lack resilience [97]. Farmers of livestock who get insurance to mitigate climate risk are reported to be in better health. Although it began in 2008 with livestock insurance, agriculture insurance is still in its early stages of development [8]. The possible adaptive measures to cope with the drastic effects of climate change has been mentioned (Fig. 3).

Fig. 3
figure 3

Adaptive strategies to climate change

Full size image

5 Policy execution at global and regional level

To address the climate change concern, countries from all over the world have collaborated to establish international treaties such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement. These agreements seek to pursue efforts to limit temperature rise below 1.5 °C to maintain global temperature rise well below 2 °C [112]. Utilization of renewable energy resources, energy efficiency, and prevention of deforestation are just a few of the strategies that nations are putting into place to minimize their greenhouse gas emissions in order to meet these objectives [88]. Additionally, they are collaborating to harness technological and financial resources to help climate action in developing nations [14]. Even, if certain sectors have seen improvement, much more must yet be done to address the severity and urgency of the climate catastrophe.

In anticipation of the Paris Agreement, it is crucial to implement strategic measures for mitigating emissions. Adopting thorough, long-term planning should be the major priority in order to guarantee that the global average temperature stays below the crucial 2 °C threshold. This is a critical strategic approach to successfully reduce the risks and effects of climate change. In addition, one of the most important aspects of reducing emissions is the requirement that global emissions peak as soon as is practically possible, taking into account the possibility of a longer timeframe for emerging countries. Consequently, it is imperative to make a commitment to expeditious and substantial reductions, guided by the most recent scientific advancements, with the ultimate objective of reaching balance between emissions and removals by the end of the century [2]. Global climate change is predicted to have an even adverse impact on agriculture in future, affecting nations already engaged in active agricultural management [87]. A study based on the implementation of policies and initiatives to support the success of the agricultural sector in San Diego suggests that sectorial level initiatives must be taken into account include switching to electric farm equipment, increasing county and residential tree planting, and implementing the Agriculture Promotion Programme, which was designed to improve auxiliary uses for agricultural operations [87].

In context of developing and vulnerable countries to climatic variation like Pakistan, the Ministry of Climate Change has set a variety of initiatives to bring public awareness of mitigation and adaptation activities in line with the country’s climate strategy. Improving the transportation, forestry, energy, livestock, agriculture, planning for cities, and industrial sectors is necessary to mitigate the adverse consequences of climate change. Reducing the consequences of climate actions at the national level requires the use of energy-efficient devices and use of renewable, environmentally friendly energy. Pakistan’s Intended National Determined Contributions (INDC) estimate that the annual cost of putting these mitigation measures into place will range from 7 to 14 billion USD. Nearly 100 million trees have also been planted nationwide as part of the Green Pakistan Programme (GOP 2017–18) [102].

The study on the analysis of barriers and enabling framework underscores noteworthy technological progress within the energy, forestry, and transportation industries. Notable examples of energy-saving advancements featured in the document include contemporary micro-hydropower plants and solar energy generation. Furthermore, in the realm of forestry, these technological strides encompass initiatives such as social forestry to address carbon sinks and the promotion of sustainable forest management (SFM) as a proactive measure against deforestation [43]. The two most vulnerable industries are found to be water and agriculture, and three specific adaption techniques have been proposed for these sectors, including, rainwater harvesting, storm water management, and groundwater recharge. Within the agriculture sector, optimal technologies encompass efficient irrigation systems (both drip and sprinkler), drought-resistant crop varieties, advanced weather forecasting and projections, and the implementation of early warning systems [43].

Ensuring active participation of residents in mitigation and adaptation plans is essential, given their enlightenment about local situation compared to external organizations. Urgent attention is required to address inconsistencies in government planning and policy. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [55] noted that the inadequacy of knowledge to prompt adaptive responses is among several phenomena requiring attention. The situation in Pakistan are the worst in this regard, according to the IPCC [55], which deduced that policy execution and implementation have been comparatively constrained and confront various difficulties. To deal with the micro-level effects of climate change, various sectors require immediate development of comprehensive and multifaceted plans [55].

6 Future perspectives

It will be essential to create data-driven models that simulate the expected effects of climate change on various agricultural production systems within Agro-ecological Zones (AEZ) in order to guarantee that the appropriate adaptation and relief methods are followed. Using information technology, geographic information system approaches, and remote sensing to apply precision farming techniques is a strategic strategy that increases input efficiency and produces extensive data on crop, soil, and climate-related characteristics. With the use of this data, it will be possible to determine the best cropping strategies for each AEZ, reducing the negative consequences of climate change. Apart from technology-based interventions, obtaining pre-funding from domestic and international channels, with a particular emphasis on smallholders, is essential for promoting broad adoption of Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA).

Establishing a climate alert strategy, acknowledging the climate change threat in national planning agendas, and imparting knowledge to farmers through targeted programs are critical steps to further reinforce the global and local implementation of CSA, especially in the context of Pakistan. In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, prepare for the implications of climate change, and boost resilience to its effects, the international community must continue to work together to implement ambitious climate policies and actions.