Capturing Hard-braking Event Counts by Work Zone and Direction of Travel
Owing to the computational complexities involved in handling this large hard-braking dataset of 12.7 million events, matching each event individually to its nearest interstate location was infeasible. Similar hard-braking event counts available for the month of August 2020 for 11 states—California (25,441,595), Connecticut (2,048,510), Georgia (8,704,155), Indiana (6,683,366), Minnesota (3,254,094), North Carolina (6,546,877), Ohio (10,012,453), Pennsylvania (9,831,815), Texas (26,300,993), Utah (948,931) and Wisconsin (4,049,073), underlined the need for a quicker procedure for capturing hard-braking activity at specific locations on roadways of interest. Owing to this, an alternate approach was developed wherein 46 separate geofences were created to spatially outline the area for every work zone analyzed in this study in two directions of travel. From the statewide dataset of hard-braking events shown in Fig. 4, spatial joins were then used to effectively narrow down the hard-braking dataset to events that occurred within the virtual perimeter defined by any of the 46 geofences mentioned earlier. A temporal join was next applied to this dataset to further narrow down the events to those that occurred within the period from July 1 to August 31, 2019. Callout (i) on Fig. 5 shows such a set of geofenced polygons capturing hard-braking events on I-65 in the northbound direction of travel in the vicinity of mile marker 102. Each hard-braking event represented by a colored dot on Fig. 5 has been colorized by the initial speed recorded in miles per hour at the time of hard braking. When this procedure was repeated individually 46 times for each work zone by direction, the dataset of 12.7 million hard-braking events was narrowed down to the 196,215 hard-braking events used for the analysis in this study.
Visualizing Relationship Between Congestion, Crashes, and Hard-Braking Events
Figure 6a shows a spatial and temporal heatmap of traffic speeds for the period of July 1 to August 31, 2019 for a nine and a half mile stretch of I-65 northbound from MM 101–110.5. Work zone Z14 makes up the stretch of I-65 depicted in the heatmap in Fig. 6a.
The legend at the top shows the color for speeds ranging from greater than 65 mph (green) to less than 14 mph (purple). The heatmap is generated from commercially available probe data consisting of average vehicle speeds for 1-mile interstate segments at 1 min fidelity (Li et al. 2015). This visualization easily helps segregate recurring congestion from nonrecurring events as highlighted by red dashed lines in Fig. 6a. For the 2-week period beginning August 12, 2019, significant weekday recurring congestion can be seen between mile marker 106 and 110 (Work zone Z14) in the northbound direction of travel.
Crashes are shown on the heat map in Fig. 6a as circles. Property damage (PDO) crashes are indicated by hollow circles, while personal injury (PI) crashes are indicated by gray circles. Figure 6b shows a stacked bar graph tabulation of the number of crashes occurring each day using the same color grey shading as the circles in Fig. 6a, with elevated crash counts for the 2-week period starting August 12, 2019 highlighted by red dashed lines.
Hard-braking event counts by day for this stretch of I-65 northbound are shown in Fig. 6c with the corresponding region of elevated crash counts and congestion highlighted by red dashed lines. It can clearly be seen from Fig. 6a, b, c how hard-braking activity clusters correspond to regions of elevated crash counts and congestion.
In this study, congested conditions are defined as lengths of interstate roadway that are operating below a speed threshold of 45 miles per hour (Brennan et al. 2013; Day et al., 2016). Long queues that often build up on interstate work zones, such as those highlighted by red dashed lines in Fig. 6a, would result in motorists having to swiftly slow down or hard-brake which increases the risk of a rear-end collision. Figure 7 shows the manner of collision percentages for the 92 crashes recorded for this work zone in Fig. 6b. From the congestion seen in the region of MM 106–110 in Fig. 6a, significant hard-braking activity is seen to have occurred in this same region shown in Fig. 6c, some of which may have contributed to back-of-queue collisions. This is validated by the 49% of crashes occurring in the two-month period being rear end collisions shown in Fig. 7. Lane closures, lane shifts, crashes, sweeping and painting in work zones, and inclement weather are some of the leading causes that are expected to result in hard-braking activity as motorists adjust to changing roadway conditions.
In this particular instance, the region of heavy congestion and elevated crash counts was only able to be identified in an after-action review once crash reports were filed. Using hard-braking events as a surrogate for crash counts could have pinpointed this region of concern within 24 h instead of having to wait for a crash history to develop. This is visibly verifiable by the strong relationship observed between crash activity and hard-braking events in Fig. 6b, c.
Evaluating Relationship Between Hard-braking and Crashes Within Work Zones
Hard-braking events for each work zone occurring during July 1 to August 31, 2019 were totaled and divided by the extent of the work zone in miles (including approaches) to arrive at a value of hard-braking events per mile as shown below:
$$\frac{\text{Hard-braking Events}}{\text{mile}}\text{=}\frac{{\mathrm{Hard}- \text{braking Events} }_{\mathrm{July }2019}\text{+}{\mathrm{Hard}- \text{braking Events} }_{\mathrm{August }2019}}{\text{Approach End MM - Approach Start MM}}$$
(1)
Mile markers and directional information were used from statewide crash reports to spatially determine if a crash occurred within any of the 23 work zones’ boundaries. The total 2-month crash count was then calculated and divided by the extent of the work zone in miles (including approaches) to similarly arrive at the crashes per mile value defined as:
$$\frac{\text{Crashes}}{{\text{mile}}}\text{=}\frac{{\text{Crashe}}{\text{s}}_{\text{July 2019}}+ \text{Crashe} {\text{s}}_{\text{August 2019}}}{\text{Approach End MM - Approach Start MM}}$$
(2)
These numerical quantities together form the basis for evaluating the relationship between hard-braking activity and crash occurrences.
Figure 8 shows a scatter plot of crashes per mile against hard-braking events per mile for each of the 23 work zones, calculated separately for each direction of travel, for data totaled over the 2 months of July and August in 2019. A linear trendline is plotted over the data points which returned an R2 value of 0.85. The plot shows that in general, 1 crash per mile is to be expected for approximately every 147 hard-braking events per mile within a work zone. With the exception of a few outliers visible in Fig. 8, it can be safely said that crashes per mile increase at a steady rate with respect to hard-braking events per mile. Our approach to determining the correlation between hard-braking event and crash incident counts involved the use of the linear regression method. The regression resulted in an adjusted R2 value of 0.845 with a p value of 0.000 (rounded to three decimal places) reinforcing the statistical significance of obtained results.
Using this established relationship between crashes per mile and hard-braking events per mile and having accomplished the first objective of this study, one of the 23 work zones needed to be chosen for a case study in order to look at causal factors for increased hard-braking activity, the second objective of this study. The availability of an independent dataset, namely a mobile LiDAR map of the pavement profiles in work zone Z11 made it an ideal candidate for further analysis. Secondly, work zone Z11 was an area that had observed construction activity both in 2018 and 2019 and saw a 28% increase in crash count in 2019 pointing to a cause of concern for INDOT. This led to a case study analysis of crashes and hard-braking activity in this work zone described in detail in the following section.