The 28th edition of the “Conference of Parties”, or more famously known as the COP summit, ended on the 13th of December, 2023 in Dubai, UAE. COP summits provide a platform for countries around the world to discuss, review and take decisions required to achieve the goals of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It is a space where global leaders and organisations meet and discuss the strategies being implemented or that should be implemented to achieve the targets of the goals set-up by previous COP summits, and most importantly the Paris Agreement. Adopted at COP21, the Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty accepted by 196 countries that targets to limit the increase of global average temperatures to below 2℃ above pre-industrial levels and put efforts to limit it below 1.5℃.Footnote 1 UN Secretary General recently stated that 2023 marked the beginning of “the era of global boiling” and “the end of global warming” with record shattering temperatures being observed throughout the year. Additionally, the impacts of Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts on the human lives and environment have been huge. This made COP28 one of the most critical summits for countries around the world to join hands and implement decisions required to achieve the targets made over the years at the ground-level. The main target of COP28’s presidency was to achieve a global consensus for majority of the decisions, if not all. This was achieved to a certain extent which led to the formation of the “UAE Consensus”. This resulted in the release of a Global Stocktake based on the target of Paris Agreement. The stocktake aims to address several topics with the major ones being: loss and damage fund, fossil fuel transition, and building and implementing resilience and mitigation strategies.

Loss and Damage Fund

Loss and Damage Fund was the first agenda of the COP28 summit. The fund was first set-up at COP27 and was defined as a funding to adapt and mitigate anthropogenic climate change related impacts for highly vulnerable poor, developing and small island nations.Footnote 2 At COP28, the Loss and Damage Fund was adopted in the first session of the first day. Nineteen countries made commitments to the fund, which totalled up to USD 792 million.Footnote 3 Although a historic decision for the vulnerable parts of the world, the amount contributed to it has left them disappointed. A study by Newman and Noy (2023) estimated that globally extreme weather has costed around USD 140 billion every year in between 2000–2019. Although the figure varies yearly, trends suggest a constant rise in these numbers. In 2022, the damage was estimated to be approximately USD 280 billion. The cost is expected to rise exponentially in the future as weather extremes increase, not only in frequency but also in intensity. Year 2023 was the hottest on record with July, 2023 recorded as the hottest month as global average temperatures spiked above the 1.5 ℃ mark.Footnote 4 The combination of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) along with anthropogenic activities has led to this warming anomaly in 2023, resulting in damage to life, infrastructure, human activities like food production, etc. in every continent around the world.Footnote 5

The African continent has been hit hard by weather extremes. The numbers published by the Emergency Event Database revealed that Africa suffered a total of 80 meteorological, hydrological, and climate-related hazards in 2022.Footnote 6 Of these, 56% were flood events while the rest were droughts, showcasing the complexity of the situation. Approximately 110 million people were directly affected by these extremes, causing an overall economic damage of around USD 8.5 billion. The impacts varied from region to region. According to the World Meteorological Organisation’s (WMO) State of the Climate in Africa Report 2022, parts of West and Central Africa suffered significant floodings during the monsoon season in 2022 affecting over 37,000 people directly. A dozen of health facilities and 88 schools were flooded, affecting access to healthcare and education. East Africa, particularly countries in the Horn of Africa, continued experiencing their worst-ever droughts in the past 40 years. The drought-stressed conditions wreaked havoc for agriculture and food security in the region with a record 4.4 million people suffering from acute food insecurity, 90% more than the average yearly numbers. Southern Africa was hit by a series of tropical cyclones that affected an estimated 2.8 million people and resulted in more than 800 deaths.Footnote 7 These events led to the displacement of about 7.4 million people in the continent.Footnote 8 The report also estimated that the lost and damage costs required in Africa will range between USD 290 billion (2℃ warming scenario) to USD 440 billion (4℃ warming scenario), this is 376–571% above the current amount in the fund (see footnote 7).

Asian countries have been the worst hit by extreme weather disasters in terms of human and economic damage. The Emergency Event Database suggests that 81 weather disasters were reported in Asia, of which 83% were floodings and storms. Around 50 million people were directly affected by these events, causing a total economic damage of about USD 36 billion (see footnote 6). The economic damages by floods in 2022 exceeded the average damages over the past 20 years. Floodings in Pakistan (in 2022) were one of the country’s most severe disasters ever. According to WMO’s State of the Climate in Asia Report 2022, more than 33 million people were directly affected and around 8 million were displaced due to the flash floods. Floods had a major impact on rural livelihoods as they wiped out 1.7 million hectares of agricultural land and more than 800,000 livestock animals. Lack of defensive infrastructure and shelter made the situation worse for people. North-east India and Bangladesh were also affected by floods that displaced about 1.3 million people and caused over 2000 deaths, the highest in India in 2022 due to a natural disaster. China incurred a total economic damage of about USD 12.6 million from both floods and droughts.Footnote 9

The Arctic and the Antarctic are other regions of high vulnerability. They have gained high importance in the past decade due to their global implications. The Arctic region recorded 56 weather extremes in 2022, with rains and heatwaves forming most of these. Temperatures in Arctic were 0.76℃ above the 1991–2020 mean, making it the fifth warmest year on record. These temperatures were associated with wetter-than-normal conditions across the Arctic, making summer of 2022 the third-wettest on record. The sea-ice extent suffered as well, with March 2022 (month with greatest sea-ice cover) having 5.1% lesser extent than the 1991–2020 average, and September 2022 (month with lowest sea-ice cover) having 12.7% lesser extent than the 1991–2020 average. The Greenland Ice Sheet lost about 165 ± 18 Gt (gigatonnes) of ice mass, which is equivalent to a 0.5 mm rise in global sea levels. Permafrost temperatures continued to rise as well with the ones at higher latitudes warming more rapidly than their lower counterparts. An average increase of 0.7℃ has been observed for permafrost across the Arctic.Footnote 10 Antarctica suffered from some weather extremes as well, with most important being the heat wave in March 2022. During the heatwave, temperatures in East Antarctica exceeded 10℃ above the March mean temperatures. The temperatures were at a record high and resulted in 300% more precipitation in the region in comparison to the 1991–2020 average. The extreme temperatures and rains were also associated with record melting of ice with a maximum melt area of 28,100 km2, more than double the previous record of 10,600 km2. Sea-ice extent and area in Antarctica and Southern Ocean fell below record low in 2022.Footnote 11

These weather extremes in Arctic and Antarctic have and will continue to impact lives locally and globally. Models suggest that the decline in sea ice extent and area will result in an additional global warming of 0.43℃ at a carbon dioxide concentration of 400 ppm (Wunderling et al. 2020). This occurs because the removal of ice exposes a darker ocean surface, which absorbs more incoming solar radiation resulting in lowered albedo. Thawing of permafrost due to rapid warming has also been associated with release of greenhouse gases. Models suggest that at current warming rates, approximately 400–500 gigatonnes of carbon can be emitted in the atmosphere in the form of carbon dioxide and methane.Footnote 12 These can exemplify global warming and hence the weather extremes globally. Locally, the impacts on indigenous communities are already visible in the form of loss of traditional food sources like reindeers, seals, etc., loss of hunting grounds due to melting ice, and more intense and frequent weather disasters. A study suggests that these impacts will result in economic damages of approximately USD 350 trillion, making it the most expensive disaster in the history of human civilisation.Footnote 13

With the start of El Niño in 2023, global warming and weather disasters have only gone worse. According to WMO’s provisional State of the Climate Report 2023, the near-surface air temperature in 2023 was 1.40 ± 0.12℃ above the 1850–1900 average, breaching the 1.5℃ target of the Paris Agreement and making 2023 the warmest year on record. This was associated with lowest Antarctic sea-ice extent since 1979 and highest global mean sea level on record.Footnote 14 The world was hit by several major weather disasters as well. Wildfires in Canada were one of the worst in the country’s history and emitted around 480 megatons of carbon in the atmosphere, contributing 23% of the global wildfire carbon emissions in 2023.Footnote 15 The US island state of Hawaii was also hit by a strong wildfire in mid-2023 that killed at least 115 people and costed USD 6 billion in economic damages.Footnote 16 Cyclone Freddy killed more than 300 and displaced more than 80,000 people in Madagascar, Mozambique, and Malawi, and was the longest lasting tropical cyclone on record.Footnote 17 Europe experienced a highly complex hydrological and weather cycle throughout 2023. June was hot and dry in northern Europe and colder than average in southern Europe. Contrastingly, July and August were colder and wetter than average for northern Europe, while southern Europe experienced heatwaves and wildfires.Footnote 18 Extreme warming across Europe has resulted in Swiss Alps losing about 10% of their snow volume in the past two years (see footnote 14). In China, torrential rains and flooding, deadly landslides, hailstorms, and typhoons had a direct economic loss of USD 308 billion in the first nine months of the year.Footnote 19 Severe heatwaves were also witnessed in Beijing with temperatures above 35℃ for 10 consecutive days being witnessed for the first time since 1961, forcing the authorities to ban outdoor activities in the region.Footnote 20 India suffered two major weather disasters in 2023 in the form of cyclone in Gujarat and flooding in Himachal Pradesh, which together had an estimated economic impact of approximately USD 18.4 billion,Footnote 21.Footnote 22 Overall, 2023 has been a record-breaking year for anthropogenic climate change related weather disasters and the economic losses associated with them. At least 12,000 people, which are 30% more than 2022, were killed in the year with almost half of these deaths coming from highly vulnerable countries that are responsible for less than 0.1% of the world’s emissions.Footnote 23 The Loss and Damage Fund is a right step towards tackling these damages for vulnerable nations, however, the current amount would cover less than 0.2% of the loss associated with the disasters every year.Footnote 24 The fund is a historic achievement for vulnerable nations’ battle against climate change and achieving resilient systems, but more efforts are still required by rich nations to make sure that the vulnerable part of the world does not keep on suffering the consequences of their mistakes.

Fossil fuel transition

One of the most historical decisions in the 28 years of international climate negotiations was taken at COP28 when nearly every country agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels”. Fossil fuels were also mentioned as the main driver of climate change for the first time in the UN document (see footnote 3). Approximately 89% of the carbon dioxide emissions in 2022 were due to the energy sector alone, making burning of fossil fuels a direct culprit in rising greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations.Footnote 25 According to the Emissions Gap Report 2023, global GHG emissions will have to be cut down by 28% to get on a least-cost pathway to achieve the 2℃ target of the Paris Agreement, and by 42% to keep temperatures from rising above 1.5℃. However, the report also states that GHG emission increased by 1.2% between 2021 and 2022 leading to a new record of 5.74 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.Footnote 26 Reducing emission in the energy sector is therefore highly critical to achieve the targets of the Paris Agreement. To accomplish this, Global Decarbonization Accelerator (GDA) programme was launched at COP28 to allow an orderly, just, and fast transition in the energy sector. The GDA is based on three pillars, which include, (1) reducing the emissions of methane and non-carbon dioxide GHGs across sectors. USD 1.2 billion were mobilized for this as an initial fund for developing nations. (2) Decarbonizing the present energy system; to achieve this, Oil and Gas Decarbonizing charter was endorsed by 52 companies that represent 40% of global oil and gas production. The charter aims to accelerate the decarbonization of the energy sector by 2030 and manage a just transition from coal in order to achieve the net zero by 2050 targets. (3) Building the energy system of the future. A Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge was endorsed by 132 countries that committed to triple renewable and double annual energy efficiency by 2030. Fund of USD 5 billion was mobilized for the implementation of the pledge in the global south (see footnote 3). However, estimates suggest that approximately USD 4 trillion will have to be invested yearly if the countries in global south, apart from China, have to achieve the targets of the pledge.Footnote 27 These numbers suggest that the finances are still far from what is required to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement globally. In addition to this, the language used in the final released official document has been rather inadequate. Terms like “phase-out” have been completely removed and decline in use of “unabated” coal has been mentioned, showcasing the dependency of nations on fossil fuels.Footnote 28 The document consists of several loopholes and lacks concrete global targets for reduction of fossil fuel consumption and sounds more suggestive than decisive. Hence, although the decision marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era, care will have to be taken so that loopholes are not taken an advantage off.

Talks were also opened on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). First introduced in 2015, NDCs are defined as the climate pledges that nations globally will fulfil in order to reach the targets of the Paris Agreement.Footnote 29 NDCs give every nation the opportunity to tailor their needs and requirement to achieve the goal of the Paris Agreement based on their situations. As of 2023, 149 NDCs have been submitted to the UN.Footnote 30 NDCs are divided into two types- unconditional NDCs, which are defined as NDCs that can be fulfilled using domestic resources, and conditional NDCs that require international resources for implementation. Full implementation of current unconditional NDCs would only limit the global warming to 2.9℃. Additional implementation of conditional NDCs would reduce this to 2.5℃, and only meeting all the unconditional NDCs, conditional NDCs and net-zero pledges would result in achieving the 2℃ target of Paris Agreement (see footnote 30). However, as current data suggests, nations worldwide, especially the G20 nations, which are responsible for 80% of the global GHG emissions, are way off track from achieving the deadlines set for the net zero targets.Footnote 31 This makes achieving the Paris Agreement a herculean task based on current global trajectories. At COP28, leaders from all nations were asked to set more ambitious targets for their NDCs in the next round, which is expected to start from 2025 (see footnote 3). Various suggestions were made in the official documents for countries to take up. However, no official global targets that have to be covered by the NDCs were made, giving a huge possible margin of error in terms of achieving the Paris Agreement.

Adaptation and mitigation programmes

Global Goal on Adaptation and Mitigation Transition Programmes were also adopted at COP28 which focused on several topics including: food and water, health, relief and recovery, and nature. Food security was treated as a topic of high priority at COP28. According to the Status of the Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2023 report published by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations, approximately 735 million people suffered from food insecurity in 2022, 122 million more than 2019 numbers.Footnote 32 Several factors including the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia-Ukraine war, and climate disasters have been the major reasons behind this rise. Situation in Africa is worst with 20% of its population suffering from hunger. With the increase in global population levels as well as 68% of the population projected to live in urban set-up by 2050, pressure is going to increase on the agrifood systems to perform under a changing climate (see footnote 32). China, India, and Brazil are the major crop producing and exporting countries in the world, and face serious threats in their agricultural productivity if the goals of the Paris Agreement are not met. Studies predict that rice and wheat production in China are expected to decline by 16% and 19% respectively, by 2050 (Ding et al. 2022). Similarly, rice and wheat production in India are also expected to suffer and decline by 3.5% and 19.3% respectively, by 2050.Footnote 33 Sugarcane production is expected to decline in Brazil, India, and China. Maize production is also expected to decline by 10.8% if the targets of Paris Agreement are not met (Li et al. 2022). Apart from crop production loss, soil degradation due to climate change is another major factor affecting agro-systems. Globally, 33% of soils are already degraded and 90% could be degraded by 2050, causing an economic damage of approximately USD 400 billion every year.Footnote 34 These declines in food production and soil quality will result in an increase in prices of major crops globally, making it harder for people to afford them and pushing them towards food insecurity. Building a sustainable and resilient agriculture system is therefore critical for the future sustenance of human population. Apart from food, water availability is also a major issue globally. According to the UN World Water Development Report 2023, globally 2 billion people (26% of the population) do not have an access to safe water, with majority of these numbers coming from Africa and Asia.Footnote 35 At COP28, 159 heads of state and governments agreed to the UAE Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action to address the vulnerability of food systems to climate change. USD 3.2 billion was financed to help with the implementation of the declaration. Water security was also mentioned at the summit, making it the second time that this topic was raised at COPs. An amount of USD 150 million was pledged for innovations to tackle water scarcity (see footnote 3). The declaration aims to scale up adaptation and resilience activities to reduce vulnerability of farmers, and other food producers to climate change. This will be done through financial and technical support, setting up early warning systems for weather extremes, and improving infrastructure in the agricultural sector. It also targets to increase innovation and research in the field to increase food production as well make it more nutritious. Strengthening water system and management, especially in agricultural sector, is another main aim of the declaration.Footnote 36 The declaration, if successful, would allow the building of a resilient food and water system. However, finances will have to be ramped up if all the goals have to be met by the 2025 deadline.

A new agenda relating to climate and health was launched at COP28. Supported by the World Health Organisation (WHO), the COP28 UAE Declaration on Climate and Health aims to address health effects of climate change. The main objectives of this declaration include development and implementation of policies that maximize health gains from adaptation and mitigation actions, prevent worsening of health impacts due to pollution and climate change, and address mental health and climate change related anxiety issues.Footnote 37 This marked the first time that health impacts of climate change were considered at the COPs and would help millions of vulnerable communities by providing them necessary healthcare facilities. Pollution is estimated to kill approximately 9 million people each year.Footnote 38 Air pollution has the largest contribution to this number. In 2019, 99% of the global population was living in regions where WHO guidelines for ambient air quality were not met.Footnote 39 Poor air quality is involved in approximately 75% of deaths related to pollution since it increases the risk of strokes, heart disease, and lung cancer (Fuller et al. 2022). Water pollution is the second biggest contributor, and is responsible for approximately 1.4 million deaths every year, mostly due to consumption of unsafe water resulting in diseases like cholera, diarrhoea, etc. or heavy metal poisoning including lead, arsenic, etc..Footnote 40 The remaining deaths largely occur due to soil and land pollution, which lead to contamination of food resulting in biomagnification of contaminants in human bodies. Considering the effects of climate change on mental health and climate anxiety, especially among the youth, is also a strong step forward. According to a study by Hickman et al. (2021), 61.8% of the young adults globally feel anxious due to climate change, 38% are suffering from depression, and more than half of them blame governments for these feelings. Showcasing the importance of mental health at such a large level would therefore benefit youth globally. Apart from Climate and Health, the One Health Approach was also introduced that collaborates human, animal, environmental, and climate health challenges into one common goal for global health, showcasing the importance of collaboration between these topics.

The importance of nature in climate actions was also discussed at COP28. Heads of state and governments from forest-rich countries across Asia, Africa, South America, and ocean-rich countries across Pacific introduced a landmark investment to implement the Global Biodiversity Framework along with the Paris Agreement. A USD 2.7 billion fund was mobilized from private and public sources in order to protect the populations whose livelihood depends directly on nature as well as initiate development programmes for indigenous communities. Commitment of USD 1 trillion was also pledged specifically for the Amazon rainforests (see footnote 3). Approximately 2 million hectares of Amazon was deforested in 2020 resulting in a global economic damage of around USD 110 billion.Footnote 41 Conserving the Amazon rainforest is highly critical due to several reasons. Although they cover only 1% of the planet’s surface, they harbour 10% of the world’s animal species. They are also called Earth’s lungs since they store 150–200 billion tonnes of carbon.Footnote 42 Approximately 33 million people live in the rainforests and are directly dependent on them for their livelihood.Footnote 43 A roadmap introduced to scale up financial flow in mangrove protection was endorsed by global institutions. Mangrove forests offer a nature-based solution to offset GHG emissions by capturing and storing carbon. These forests can store four to five times more carbon than tropical forests, and their destruction through deforestation and wild fires can result in release of millions of tonnes of carbon, making their conservation critical for future mitigation strategies.Footnote 44

Future prospects and conclusion

COP28 was a summit of finances and global funding for climate disasters and resilient system. Large amount of money were pledged by participating countries on various global targets. Although the money pledged still does not cover the expenses required to build a sustainable and resilient world, it marks the beginning of an era of finance mobilization at the international stage. The set-up of Loss and Damage Fund will help vulnerable developing nations fight against climate disaster related damages. However, the execution of the fund will be highly critical for its success. Poor and developing nations across Africa and Asia still lack investments in basic necessities like healthcare and education for all. According to the World Investment Report 2023, the gap of required investment by developing nations has increased from USD 2.5 trillion in 2015 to USD 4 trillion in 2023.Footnote 45 Majority of these investments are required to fulfil the basic requirements of populations. This might force the governments to utilize the funds received towards these problems rather than focusing them on adaptation, mitigation, and energy transition. This makes it necessary for the UN to monitor the funds received by developing and vulnerable nations and ensure that they are being used towards their intended purposes. Representation is another problem that must be addressed at the next COP summit. Indigenous communities, which include people living in remote parts of the world like Amazon rainforests, Arctic, mountains, etc., and small-island populations are the worst sufferers from climate change, yet their voices are often overlooked in the global targets. Around 300 indigenous people were a part of COP28; this represents less than 1% of the total attendees.Footnote 46 These numbers will have to be increased if the solutions that specifically focus on these groups must be taken. On the other hand, at least 2456 fossil fuel lobbyists were allowed access to the summit, hitting a record number in the history of all COPs.Footnote 47 Thus, changing the representation dynamic is critical for the success of future COPs. Apart from changing the representation dynamics, hearing the important voices is also important. The Small Island Alliance which consists of 39 countries claimed that they were not present while the final decision was taken, showcasing the ignorance and lack of importance given to these nations.Footnote 48 Youth representation should also be increased at COP summits. The voices of youth are one of the most important since they are the ones that would face the repercussions of today’s decisions. Involving them and making them a part of the global stocktake would be highly beneficial for long-term future goals. Global industrial leaders and entrepreneurs from all sectors should also be made a part of COP summits. These people can play an important role in pushing green technologies in different sectors including transport, energy, infrastructure, etc. which can be very beneficial for climate targets.

COP28 was a summit of many firsts. Several new deals and declarations ranging from funding for loss and damage to nature and food security were signed at the summit, making it a historical summit. It provided a lot of ambitious targets, mostly in terms of finance deals, which will be highly important to build resilient systems in the upcoming years. However, the amount mobilized throughout the summit is far off from what is required to achieve a resilient global system. The summit also lacked a balance between financial decisions and science-based decisions. These will have to be considered before the next COP summit takes place. We still have a long way to go and the global time clock is ticking faster than ever for the mankind.