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A probabilistic model for evaluating the operational safety and operational safety analysis by the maximum likelihood method: application on the cameroonian company of petroleum depot of garoua

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Abstract

This article presents an operational safety assessment model and analysis in cases where failure rate and repair rate vary over time, using the maximum likelihood analytical method as a method for estimating reliability parameters and uses Gumbel’s graphic paper for the estimation of maintainability parameters. The proposed approach takes into account both reliability and maintainability analyses, unlike current approaches in the literature which perform either reliability or maintainability analyses. A Weibull law for a reliability study has the advantage of being generalized and can also model, under certain conditions, one of the most frequent cases of distribution of technical repair times, namely the logarithmic normal distribution, which lends itself well to comparison with the laws of extreme values. The hypothesis acceptance test used is the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. The application on the equipment of the Cameroonian Company of Petroleum Depots (CCPD) of Garoua is based on a FMEA analysis and provides parameters and curves after operation of the time between failures and technical times to repair (TTR).

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The authors do not have permission to share data.

Abbreviations

FMECA:

Failure Modes Effets and Criticality Analysis

PRA:

Preliminary Risk Analysis

FTA:

Fault Tree Analysis

TBF:

Time Between Failures

TTR:

Technical Times to Repair

CCPD:

Cameroonian Company of Petroleum Depots

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Acknowledgements

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. The authors are grateful to the Cameroonian Company of Petroleum Depots of Garoua for having made available to them the data relating to their equipment.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mechanical Engineering, National Advanced School of Agro - Industrial Sciences, University of Ngaoundere, Ngaoundere, Cameroon

    Cedric Tatsinkou Fogang

  2. Department of Fundamental Sciences and Techniques of Enginner, School of Chemical Engeneer and Mineral Industry, University of Ngaoundere, Ngaoundere, Cameroon

    Wolfgang Nzié & Aslain Brisco Ngnassi Djami

Authors
  1. Cedric Tatsinkou Fogang
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  2. Wolfgang Nzié
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  3. Aslain Brisco Ngnassi Djami
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Contributions

Cedric Tatsinkou Fogang: Writing – review & editing, Writing – original draft, Validation, Software, Methodology, Formal analysis, Conceptualisation. Wolfgang Nzié: Writing – review & editing, Writing – original draft, Validation, Supervision. Aslain Brisco Ngnassi djami: Writing – review & editing, Formal analysis, Validation.

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Correspondence to Cedric Tatsinkou Fogang.

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Tatsinkou Fogang, C., Nzié, W. & Ngnassi Djami, A.B. A probabilistic model for evaluating the operational safety and operational safety analysis by the maximum likelihood method: application on the cameroonian company of petroleum depot of garoua. Life Cycle Reliab Saf Eng 13, 189–206 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41872-024-00255-9

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