Abstract
The rural and urban areas of Central Asia underwent substantial land cover changes which has escalated the water scarcity condition in the Aral Sea, during past decades. In this article, we analyzed spatial variation of the vegetation based on GIMMS NDVI (Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies) and its correlation with climatic variables (temperature, precipitation and soil moisture) in the Aral Sea Basin (ASB) for growing and non-growing seasons over two different periods, i.e., 1982–1999 and 2000–2015. For this purpose, NDVI was obtained from GIMMS and climatic variables from datasets on the CRU (Climatic Research Unit). The results showed a weak positive correlation between NDVI and climatic variables during the growing season for both the study periods. The analysis revealed 0.08/10 years and 0.04/10 years of vegetation trends during growing and non-growing periods, respectively. During the growing season of 2000–2015, the spatial vegetation trend decreased by 7.84% area coverage as compared to 1982–1999. The small regions that showed only slight vegetation increase were observed over cropland and mountain regions in the northeastern and southeastern parts of basin. The impacts of human activities on the growing NDVI season were further investigated using residual trend analysis. The results revealed that in the growing season of 1982–1999, the human impact on NDVI changes was significant, with a positive residual trend accounting for 37.03% of the total area. For the period 2000–2015, a positive residual trend of 2.22% was found in the basin.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abdurahimov BF, Kurbanov UH (2015) The response of the climate system to small temperature perturbations in the Aral Sea region. Bull Nov Comp Center, Num. Model. in Atmosph., etc., 15: 1–6. https://elibrary.ru/contents.asp?id=34222658. Accessed Dec 2020
Aitekeyeva N, Li X, Guo H, Wu W, Shirazi Z, Ilyas S, Yegizbayeva A, Hategekimana Y (2020) Drought risk assessment in cultivated areas of central asia using MODIS time-series data. Water. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061738
Akramkhanov A, Kuziev R, Sommer R, Martius C, Forkutsa O, Massucati LF (2012) Soils and soil ecology in Khorezm. In: pp 37–58. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-1963-7_3
Ataniyazova OA (2003) Health and Ecological Consequences of the Aral Sea Crisis. In: The 3rd World Water Forum Reg. Coop. in Shared Wat. Res. in CA
Beck PSA, Goetz SJ (2011) Satellite observations of high northern latitude vegetation productivity changes between 1982 and 2008: ecological variability and regional differences. Environ Res Lett 6(4):045501. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045501
Berdimbetov TT, Zhu-Guo M, Chen L, Sana I (2020) Impact of climate factors and human activities on water resources in the Aral Sea Basin. Hydrol MDPI 7(30):14. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology7020030
Berdimbetov T, Nietullaeva S, Yegizbaeva A (2021) Analysis of Impact of Aral Sea catastrophe on anomaly climate variables and hydrological processes. Int J Geoinform 17(1):65–74. https://journals.sfu.ca/ijg/index.php/journal/article/view/1711. Accessed Feb 2021
Bilal M, Nazeer M, Nichol JE, Bleiweiss MP, Qiu Z, Jäkel E, Campbell JR, Atique L, Huang X, Lolli S (2019) A simplified and robust surface reflectance estimation method (SREM) for use over diverse land surfaces using multi-sensor data. Remote Sens. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11111344
Bothe O, Fraedrich K, Zhu X (2011) Precipitation climate of Central Asia and the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Theoret Appl Climatol 108(3–4):345–354. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0537-2
de Beurs KM, Henebry GM, Owsley BC, Sokolik I (2015) Using multiple remote sensing perspectives to identify and attribute land surface dynamics in Central Asia 2001–2013. Remote Sens Environ 170:48–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2015.08.018
Deng H, Yin Y, Han X (2020) Vulnerability of vegetation activities to drought in Central Asia. Environ Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab93fa
Djanibekov U, Villamor G, Dzhakypbekova K, Chamberlain J, Xu J (2016) Adoption of sustainable land uses in post-Soviet Central Asia: the case for agroforestry. Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.3390/su8101030
Duulatov E, Orozbaev R, Chen X, Amanambu CA, Ochege UF, Issanova GI, Omurakunova G (2019) Projected rainfall erosivity over Central Asia Based on CMIP5 climate models. Water. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11050897
ESA-CCI (2017) Land cover CCI climate research data package. Retrieved from https://maps.elie.ucl.ac.be/CCI/viewer/. Accessed 20 July 2017
Evans J, Geerken R (2004) Discrimination between climate and human-induced dryland degradation. J Arid Environ 57(4):535–554. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-1963(03)00121-6
Gallo KP, Ji L, Reed BC, Dwyer JL, Eidenshink JC (2004) Comparison of MODIS and AVHRR 16-day normalized difference vegetation index composite data. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL019385
Garzelli A, Aiazzi B, Alparone L, Lolli S, Vivone G (2018) Multispectral pansharpening with radiative transfer-based detail-injection modeling for preserving changes in vegetation cover. Remote Sens. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10081308
Gaybullaev B, Chen S, Gaybullaev D (2012) Changes in water volume of the Aral Sea after 1960. Appl Water Sci. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-012-0048-z
Gessner U, Naeimi V, Klein I, Kuenzer C, Klein D, Dech S (2013) The relationship between precipitation anomalies and satellite-derived vegetation activity in Central Asia. Glob Planet Change 110:74–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.09.007
Glantz MH (1999) Creeping environmental problems and sustainable development in the Aral Sea Basin. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 47–66
Glazovsky NF (1995) The Aral Sea basin. In: Kasperson JX, Kasperson RE, Turner BL II (eds) Regions at risk: comparisons of threatened environments. United Nations University Press, Tokyo (on-line edition)
Guo H, Bao A, Ndayisaba F, Liu T, Jiapaer G, El-Tantawi AM, De Maeyer P (2018) Space-time characterization of drought events and their impacts on vegetation in Central Asia. J Hydrol 564:1165–1178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.07.081
Guo H, Bao A, Liu T, Jiapaer G, Ndayisaba F, Jiang L, Kurban A, De Maeyer P (2019) Spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts in Central Asia during 1966–2015. Sci Total Environ 628:1523–1538. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.120
Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ, Lister DH (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations—the CRU TS3.10 Dataset. Int J Climatol 34(3):623–642. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711
Hu Z, Zhang C, Hu Q, Tian H (2013) Temperature changes in Central Asia from 1979 to 2011 based on multiple datasets. J Clim 27(3):1143–1167. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00064.1
Hu Z, Li Q, Chen X, Teng Z, Chen C, Yin G, Zhang Y (2015) Climate changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in an alpine grassland of Central Asia. Theor Appl Climatol 126:519–531. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1568-x
Hu Y, Dao R, Hu Y (2019) Vegetation change and driving factors: contribution analysis in the loess plateau of China during 2000–2015. Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11051320
Ibrahim Y, Balzter H, Kaduk J, Tucker C (2015) Land degradation assessment using residual trend analysis of GIMMS NDVI3g, soil moisture and rainfall in Sub-Saharan West Africa from 1982 to 2012. Remote Sens 7(5):5471–5494. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs70505471
Ichii K, Kawabata A, Yamaguchi Y (2002) Global correlation analysis for NDVI and climatic variables and NDVI trends: 1982–1990. Int J Remote Sens 23(18):3873–3878. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160110119416
Ilyas S, Xu X, Jia G, Zhang A (2019) Interannual variability of global wetlands in response to El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and land-use [Original Research]. Front Earth Sci 7:289. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00289
Jiang L, Guli J, Anming B, Hao G, Felix N (2017) Vegetation dynamics and responses to climate change and human activities in Central Asia. Sci Total Environ 599–600:967–980. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.012 (v.2599-2600)
Kang C, Zhang Y, Wang Z, Liu L, Zhang H, Jo Y (2017) The driving force analysis of NDVI dynamics in the trans-boundary Tumen River basin between 2000 and 2015. Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9122350
Li Z, Chen Y, Li W, Deng H, Fang G (2015) Potential impacts of climate change on vegetation dynamics in Central Asia. J Geophys Res Atmos 120(24):12345–12356. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jd023618
Lioubimtseva E, Cole R (2006) Uncertainties of climate change in arid environments of Central Asia. Rev Fish Sci 14(1–2):29–50. https://doi.org/10.1080/10641260500340603
Lioubimtseva E, Cole R, Adams J, Kapustin G (2005) Impacts of climate and land-cover changes in arid lands of Central Asia. J Arid Environ 62:285–308. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2004.11.005
Liu X, Tian Z, Zhang A, Zhao A, Liu H (2019) Impacts of climate on spatiotemporal variations in vegetation NDVI from 1982–2015 in inner Mongolia. China Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11030768
Luo H, Dai S, Xie Z, Fang J (2018) NDVI-Based analysis on the influence of human activities on vegetation variation on Hainan Island. IOP Conf Ser Earth Environ Sci. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/121/3/032045
Micklin P (1998) Regional and International Responses to the Aral Crisis. PostSoviet Geogr Econ 39(7):399–417
Micklin P (2000) Managing water in Central Asia (Central Asian and Caucasian Prospect). The Royal Institute of International Affairs
Micklin P (2007) The Aral Sea disaster. Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 35(1):47–72. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.earth.35.031306.140120
Micklin P (2014) Efforts to revive the aral sea. In: The Aral Sea. Springer, pp 361–380 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-02356-9_15
NOAA (2018) NOAA AVHRR. Normalized-difference-vegetation-index. In: National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff (Eds). Last modified 14 Mar 2018
Peng S, Piao S, Ciais P, Myneni R, Chen A, Chevallier F, Dolman H, Janssens I, Penuelas J, Zhangf G, Vicca S, Wan S, Wang S, Zeng H (2013) Asymmetric effects of daytime and night-time warming on Northern Hemisphere vegetation. Nature 501:88–92. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12434
Pettitt AN (1979) A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem. J R Stat Soc Ser C (applied Statistics) 28(2):126–135. https://doi.org/10.2307/2346729
Piao S, Mohammat A, Fang J, Cai Q, Feng J (2006) NDVI-based increase in growth of temperate grasslands and its responses to climate changes in China. Glob Environ Change 16(4):340–348. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.002
Potter CS, Brooks V (1998) Global analysis of empirical relations between annual climate and seasonality of NDVI. Int J Remote Sens 19(15):2921–2948. https://doi.org/10.1080/014311698214352
Rodell M, Houser PR, Jambor U, Gottschalck J, Mitchell K, Meng C-J, Arsenault K, Cosgrove B, Radakovich J, Bosilovich M, Entin JK, Walker JP, Lohmann D, Toll D (2004) The global land data assimilation system. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 85(3):381–394. https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-85-3-381
Singh A, Seitz F, Schwatke C (2012) Inter-annual water storage changes in the Aral Sea from multi-mission satellite altimetry, optical remote sensing, and GRACE satellite gravimetry. Remote Sens Environ 123:187–195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2012.01.001
Sommer R, Glazirina M, Yuldashev T, Otarov A, Ibraeva M, Martynova L, Bekenov M, Kholov B, Ibragimov N, Kobilov R, Karaev S, Sultonov M, Khasanova F, Esanbekov M, Mavlyanov D, Isaev S, Abdurahimov S, Ikramov R, Shezdyukova L, de Pauw E (2013a) Impact of climate change on wheat productivity in Central Asia. Agric Ecosyst Environ $V178:78–99
Sommer R, Glazirina M, Yuldashev T, Otarov A, Ibraeva M, Martynova L, Bekenov M, Kholov B, Ibragimov N, Kobilov R, Karaev S, Sultonov M, Khasanova F, Esanbekov M, Mavlyanov D, Isaev S, Abdurahimov S, Ikramov R, Shezdyukova L, de Pauw E (2013b) Impact of climate change on wheat productivity in Central Asia. Agric Ecosyst Environ 178:78–99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2013.06.011
Sun W, Song X, Mu X, Gao P, Wang F, Zhao G (2015) Spatiotemporal vegetation cover variations associated with climate change and ecological restoration in the Loess Plateau. Agric for Meteorol 209–210:87–99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.05.002
Tong S, Zhang J, Bao Y, Lai Q, Lian X, Li N, Bao Y (2018) Analyzing vegetation dynamic trend on the Mongolian Plateau based on the Hurst exponent and influencing factors from 1982–2013. J Geog Sci 28(5):595–610. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-018-1493-x
Tucker CJ, Vanpraet CL, Sharman MJ, Van-Ittersum G (1985) Satellite remote sensing of total herbaceous biomass production in the Senegalese Sahel: 1980–1984. Remote Sens Environ 17:233–249. https://doi.org/10.1016/0034-4257(85)90097-5
Unger-Shayesteh K, Vorogushyn S, Merz B, Frede H-G (2013) Introduction to “Water in Central Asia—Perspectives under global change.” Glob Planet Change 110:1–3. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.09.016
Wang X, Chen Y, Li Z, Fang G, Wang F, Liu H (2020) The impact of climate change and human activities on the Aral Sea Basin over the past 50 years. Atmos Res. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105125
Xu H-J, Wang X-P, Zhang X-X (2016) Decreased vegetation growth in response to summer drought in Central Asia from 2000 to 2012. Int J Appl Earth Obs Geoinf 52:390–402. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2016.07.010
Yin G, Hu Z, Chen X, Tiyip T (2016) Vegetation dynamics and its response to climate change in Central Asia. J Arid Land 8(3):375–388. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-016-0043-6
Yuan X, Cui WW, Meng J, Kurban F, De Maeyer AP (2017) Vegetation changes and land surface feedbacks drive shifts in local temperatures over Central Asia. Sci Rep 12(7(1)):3287. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-03432-2
Zang YX, Min XJ, de Dios VR, Ma JY, Sun W (2020) Extreme drought affects the productivity, but not the composition, of a desert plant community in Central Asia differentially across microtopographies. Sci Total Environ 717:137251. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137251
Zavialov PO, Kostianoy AG, Emelianov SV, Ni AA, Ishniyazov D, Khan VM, Kudyshkin TV (2003) Hydrographic survey in the dying Aral Sea. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003gl017427
Zhou Y, Zhang L, Fensholt R, Wang K, Vitkovskaya I, Tian F (2015) Climate contributions to vegetation variations in Central Asian drylands: pre- and Post-USSR Collapse. Remote Sens 7(3):2449–2470. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs70302449
Zmijewski K, Becker R (2014) Estimating the effects of anthropogenic modification on water balance in the Aral Sea watershed using GRACE: 2003–12. Earth Interact 18(3):1–16. https://doi.org/10.1175/2013ei000537.1
Zou J, Ding J, Welp M, Huang S, Liu B (2020) Assessing the response of ecosystem water use efficiency to drought during and after drought events across Central Asia. Sensors (basel, Switzerland). https://doi.org/10.3390/s20030581
Acknowledgements
We are grateful to the University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS) for providing academic facilities for this study. We are grateful to the Nukus branch of Tashkent University of Information Technologies named after Muhammad Al-Khwarizmi and SDGnexus Network Project of the DAAD’s ‘Higher Education Excellence in Development Cooperation – exceed’ program for providing the opportunity to work on this study.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
All authors have read and agreed to publish this version of the manuscript.
Corresponding authors
Ethics declarations
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Berdimbetov, T., Ilyas, S., Ma, Z. et al. Climatic Change and Human Activities Link to Vegetation Dynamics in the Aral Sea Basin Using NDVI. Earth Syst Environ 5, 303–318 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00224-7
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00224-7