Abstract
Average labor productivity in the Thai manufacturing sector is hypothesized to have adverse effect from rising temperature. The study applied Business and Manufacturing Census 2012 and found that 10 out of 12 sub-sectors are statistically significant with an expected negative sign. If Thailand would face with climate change volatility, it is projected that the climate change raises temperature from Baseline scenario by 2.5, 5.5, 6.0, and 7.5%, respectively. Present value of the damage of climate change is estimated to be 95,519 million baht in 2020. The loss has increased to 160,335 million baht in 2050 (in current prices). Damage is expected to be 4.63% in 2020 and 3.95% in 2050 of gross output of manufacture (in 2012 prices), respectively. The government may use fiscal and monetary policy to reshape the cost–benefit of investing in the adaptation of roofing and internal air temperature control. The firm is recommended to implement a medical rehabilitation for affected employees at the firm level to avoid relocation and absenteeism of workers.
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(Source: Plot form data on labor productivity index of the Bank of Thailand 2001–2013, and Temperature is from Meteorological Department, https://www.facebook.com/tmd.go.th and Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization (TGO). http://www.tgo.or.th/2015/thai/)
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Notes
A general circulation model (GCM) is a type of climate model. It employs a mathematical model of the general circulation of a planetary atmosphere or ocean. The model belongs to the Meteorological Research Institute, (MRI), Meteorological Agency Japan. Koonthanakoonwong et al. (2010) had organized a joint research on climate change impact in Thailand with MRI by applying GCM. The prediction scenarios of temperature used in the model are referred in study organized by Limskul (2011). The predicated temperature is again used in this study.
This is unit of temperature measurement at work place.
Official temperature data series is published by the Department of Meteorological comprises maximum temperature and minimum temperature.
This is not inclusive of construction, transportation, banking and finance and agriculture sector.
Average labor productivity in Table 2 based on cross-sectional data is measured in ‘Gross Output per labor’ while the time-series data model is measured in ‘Gross Domestic Product or GDP per labor’.
The National Statistical Office has Business and Manufacturing Industry Survey of 1989, 1999, 2000, 2007 and 2012. The NSO has published only the tabulated data tables. It will be future effort to try the full sample estimation.
It is noted by Stern Review (2007) that climate change could have very serious impacts on growth and development. If no action is taken to reduce emissions, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere could reach double its pre-industrial level as early as 2035, virtually committing us to a global average temperature rise of over 2 °C.
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Limskul, K. Climate change impact on labor productivity in Thai manufacture. Asia-Pac J Reg Sci 2, 195–209 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41685-018-0073-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41685-018-0073-5