Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

„Diktatorenendspiel“

Ein Literaturbericht zur Reaktion des Militärs auf Massenproteste in Autokratien

  • Literaturbericht
  • Published:
Zeitschrift für Politikwissenschaft Aims and scope Submit manuscript

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. Im Folgenden verwende ich die Begriffe „nichtdemokratisch“, „autokratisch“, „autoritär“ und „diktatorisch“ sowie ihre Nominalisierungen synonym.

  2. Syrien ist in dieser Beziehung ein Sonderfall, da die gewaltsame Antwort des Regimes auf die zunächst friedlichen Massenproteste in eine Gewaltspirale und einen blutigen Bürgerkrieg eskalierte (Droz-Vincent 2016).

  3. Dieser Überblick diskutiert einzig die Literatur zum Ausgang von Diktatorenendspielen, nicht aber die vorgelagerte Problematik, wie es zum Entstehen von autoritären Regimekrisen und Massenprotesten kommt.

  4. Siehe statt vieler (Finer 1962; Nordlinger 1977; O’Kane 1987; Belkin und Schofer 2003; Roessler 2011; Powell 2012; Svolik 2013).

  5. Vergleiche unter anderem (Gaub 2013; Hale 2013; Makara 2013; Böhmelt 2015; Bove und Rivera 2015; Nassif 2015; Croissant und Selge 2016).

Literatur

  • Acemoglu, Daron, Davide Ticchi, und Andrea Vindigni. 2009. A theory of military dictatorships. http://works.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1005&context=andreavindigni. Zugegriffen: 01.05.2011

    Google Scholar 

  • Ahram, Ariel I. 2016. Pro-government militias and the repertoires of illicit state violence. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 39(3):207–226.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Albertus, Michael, und Victor Menaldo. 2012. Coercive capacity and the prospects for democratization. Comparative Politics 44(2):151–169.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anisin, Alexei. 2016. Violence begets violence: why states should not lethally repress popular protest. The International Journal of Human Rights 20(7):893–913.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Art, David. 2012. What do we know about authoritarianism after ten years? Comparative Politics 44(3):351–373.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bamert, Justus, Fabrizio Gilardi, und Fabio Wasserfallen. 2015. Learning and the diffusion of regime contention in the Arab spring. Research & Politics 2(3): doi:10.1177/2053168015593306.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bank, André. 2009. Die Renaissance des Autoritarismus: Erkenntnisse und Grenzen neuerer Beiträge der Comparative Politics und Nahostforschung (The Renaissance of Authoritarianism: Insights and Limits of Recent Contributions of Comparative Politics and Near East Studies). Hamburg Review of Social Sciences 4(1):10–41.

    Google Scholar 

  • Barany, Zoltan. 2012. The soldier and the changing state: building democratic armies in Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Barany, Zoltan. 2016. How armies respond to revolutions and why. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Belkin, Aaron, und Evan Schofer. 2003. Toward a structural understanding of coup risk. Journal of Conflict Resolution 47(5):594–620.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bell, Curtis. 2016. Coup d’État and democracy. Comparative Political Studies 49(9):1167–1200.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bellin, Eva. 2012. Reconsidering the robustness of authoritarianism in the middle east: lessons from the Arab spring. Comparative Politics 44(2):127–149.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Böhmelt, Tobias, und Ulrich Pilster. 2015. The impact of institutional coup-proofing on coup attempts and coup outcomes. International Interactions 41(1):158–182.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bove, Vincenzo, und Maurizio Rivera. 2015. Elite co-Optation, repression, and coups in autocracies. International Interactions: Empirical and Theoretical Research in International Relations 41(3):453–479.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brownlee, Jason. 2007. Authoritarianism in an age of democratization. New York: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Bruneau, Thomas C., und Florina Cristiana Matei (Hrsg.). 2012. Routledge handbook of civil-military relations. London: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carey, Sabine C., Michael P. Colaresi, und Neil J. Mitchell. 2015. Governments, informal links to militias, and accountability. Journal of Conflict Resolution 59(5):850–876.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cheibub, José Antonio, Jennifer Gandhi, und James Raymond Vreeland. 2010. Democracy and dictatorship revisited. Public Choice 143(1–2):67–101.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chenoweth, Erica, und Orion A. Lewis. 2013. Unpacking nonviolent campaigns introducing the navco 2.0 dataset. Journal of Peace Research 50(3):415–423.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chenoweth, Erica, und Maria J. Stephan. 2011. Why civil resistance works: the strategic logic of nonviolent conflict. New York: Columbia University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chenoweth, Erica, und Jay Ulfelder. 2015. Can structural conditions explain the onset of nonviolent uprisings? Journal of Conflict Resolution 1–27. doi:10.1177/0022002715576574.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chorley, Katharine. 1943. Armies and the art of revolution. London: Faber & Faber.

    Google Scholar 

  • Croissant, Aurel, und David Kuehn. 2015. The military’s role in politics. In The Routledge handbook on comparative political institutions, Hrsg. Jennifer Gandhi, Rubén Ruiz-Rufino. London: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Croissant, Aurel, und Tobias Selge. 2016. Should I stay or should I go? Comparing military (non-)cooperation during authoritarian regime crises in the Arab world and Asia. In Military engagement in mobilizing societies, Hrsg. Holger Albrecht, Aurel Croissant, & Fred H. Lawson, 79–124. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Croissant, Aurel, David Kuehn, Philip Lorenz, und Paul W. Chambers. 2013. Democratization and civilian control in Asia. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Davenport, Christian. 2007. State repression and the domestic democratic peace. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Desch, Michael C. 1999. Civilian control of the military: the changing security environment. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Diamond, Larry J. 2008. The democratic rollback: the resurgence of the predatory state. Foreign Affairs 87(2):36–48.

    Google Scholar 

  • Droz-Vincent, Philippe. 2016. The Syrian military and the 2011 uprising“. In Military engagement in mobilizing societies, Hrsg. Holger Albrecht, Aurel Croissant, & Fred H. Lawson, 168–184. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Escribà-Folch, Abel. 2013. Repression, political threats, and survival under autocracy. International Political Science Review 34(5):543–560.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feaver, Peter D. 1999. Civil-military relations. Annual Review of Political Science 2(1):211–241.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Finer, Samuel E. 1962. The man on horseback: the role of the military in politics. London: Pall Mall.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gandhi, Jennifer. 2008. Political institutions under dictatorship. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Gaub, Florence. 2013. The Libyan armed forces between coup-proofing and repression. Journal of Strategic Studies 36(2):221–244.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Geddes, Barbara. 1999. What do we know about democratization after twenty years? Annual Review of Political Science 2(1):115–144.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Geddes, Barbara, Joseph Wright, und Erica Frantz. 2014. Autocratic breakdown and regime transitions: a new data set. Perspectives on Politics 12(2):313–331.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gerschewski, Johannes. 2013. The three pillars of stability: legitimation, repression, and co-optation in autocratic regimes. Democratization 20(1):13–38.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gleditsch, Kristian S., und Mauricio Rivera. 2015. The diffusion of nonviolent campaigns. Journal of Conflict Resolution doi:10.1177/0022002715603101.

    Google Scholar 

  • Goldstone, Jack A. 2014. Revolutions: a very short introduction. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Greitens, Sheena Chestnut. 2016. Dictators and their Secret Police: Coercive Institutions and State Violence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  • Hale, Henry E. 2013. Regime change cascades: what we have learned from the 1848 revolutions to the 2011 Arab uprisings. Annual Review of Political Science 16(1):331–353.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huntington, Samuel P. 1957. The soldier and the state. The theory and politics of civil-military relations. Cambridge: Belknap.

    Google Scholar 

  • Huntington, Samuel P. 1991. The third wave: democratization in the late twentieth century. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Insoo, Kim. 2012. Intra-military divisions and democratization in South Korea. Armed Forces & Society 39(4): doi:10.1177/0095327x12454533.

    Google Scholar 

  • Koehler, Kevin, Dorothy Ohl, und Holger Albrecht. 2016. From disaffection to desertion: how networks facilitate military insubordination in civil conflict. Comparative Politics 48(4):439–457.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Köllner, Patrick. 2008. Autoritäre Regime – Ein Überblick über die jüngere Literatur. Zeitschrift für Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft 2(2):351–366.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lawson, Fred H. 2016. Armed forces, internal security services, and popular contention in the middle east and North Africa. In Military engagement in mobilizing societies, Hrsg. Holger Albrecht, Aurel Croissant, & Fred H. Lawson, 54–70. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lehoucq, Fabrice. 2016. Does nonviolence work? Comparative Politics 48(2):269–287.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lehoucq, Fabrice, und Aníbal Pérez-Liñán. 2014. Breaking out of the coup trap political competition and military coups in Latin America. Comparative Political Studies 47(8):1105–1129.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Levitsky, Steven, und Lucan Way. 2010. Competitive authoritarianism: hybrid regimes after the cold war. Cambrige: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Lichbach, Mark I. 1997. Social theory and comparative politics. In Comparative politics: rationality, culture, and structure, Hrsg. Mark I. Lichbach, Alan S. Zuckerman, 239–276. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Magaloni, Beatriz. 2006. Voting for autocracy: hegemonic party survival and its demise in Mexico. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Mainwaring, Scott, und Aníbal Pérez-Liñán. 2014. Democracies and dictatorships in latin america: emergence, survival, and fall. Cambrige: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Makara, Michael. 2013. Coup-proofing, military defection, and the Arab spring. Democracy and Security 9(4):334–359.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • March, James G., und Johan P. Olsen. 1984. The new institutionalism: organizational factors in political life. The American Political Science Review 78(3):734–749.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McMahon, Blake R., und Branislaw L. Slantchev. 2015. The guardianship dilemma: regime security through and from the armed forces. American Political Science Review 109(2):297–313.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nassif, Hicham Bou. 2015. Generals and autocrats: how coup-proofing predetermined the military elite’s behavior in the Arab spring. Political Science Quarterly 130(2):245–275.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nepstad, Sharon. 2011. Nonviolent revolutions: civil resistance in the late twentieth century. New York: Oxford University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Nepstad, Sharon. 2013. Mutiny and nonviolence in the Arab spring exploring military defections and loyalty in Egypt, Bahrain, and Syria. Journal of Peace Research 50(3):337–349.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nepstad, Sharon. 2015. How regimes counter civil resistance movements; the cases of Panama and Kenya. In Civil resistance: comparative perspectives on nonviolent struggle, Hrsg. Schock, Kurt Schock, 121–144. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nordlinger, Eric A. 1977. Soldiers in politics: military coups and governments. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice Hall.

    Google Scholar 

  • Owen, John M. 2016. Springs and their offspring: the international consequences of domestic uprisings. European Journal of International Security 1(1):49–72.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • O’Donnell, Guillermo A., und Philippe Schmitter (Hrsg.). 1986. Transitions from authoritarian rule: prospects for democracy. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • O’Kane, Rosemary H.T. 1987. The likelihood of coups. Aldershot: Avebury.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pion-Berlin, David. 2016. Military relations in comparative perspective. In Military engagement in mobilizing societies, Hrsg. Holger Albrecht, Aurel Croissant, & Fred H. Lawson, 7–33. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pion-Berlin, David, und Harold Trinkunas. 2010. Civilian Praetorianism and military shirking during constitutional crises in Latin America. Comparative Politics 42:395–411.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pion-Berlin, David, Diego Esparza, und Kevin Grisham. 2014. Staying quartered civilian uprisings and military disobedience in the twenty-first century. Comparative Political Studies 47(2):230–259.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Powell, Jonathan M. 2012. Determinants of the attempting and outcome of coups d’état. Journal of Conflict Resolution 56(6):1017–1040.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roessler, Philip. 2011. The enemy within: personal rule, coups, and civil war in Africa. World Politics 63(2):300–346.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rudbeck, Jens, Erica Mukherjee, und Kelly Nelson. 2016. When autocratic regimes are cheap and play dirty: the transaction costs of repression in South Africa, Kenya, and Egypt. Comparative Politics 48(2):147–166.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Russell, D.E.H. 1974. Rebellion, revolution, and armed force: a comparative study of fifteen countries with special emphasis on cuba and South Africa. New York: Academic Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schedler, Andreas. 2013. The politics of uncertainty: sustaining and subverting electoral authoritarianism. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Schock, Kurt. 2004. Unarmed insurrections: people power movements in nondemocracies. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Skocpol, Theda. 1979. States and social revolutions: a comparative analysis of France, Russia and China. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Stepan, Alfred. 1973. The new professionalism of internal warfare and military role expansion. In Authoritarian Brazil: origins, policies, and future, Hrsg. Alfred Stepan, 47–65. New Haven: Yale University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stepan, Alfred. 1988. Rethinking military politics: Brazil and the Southern Cone. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Svolik, Milan W. 2009. Power sharing and leadership dynamics in authoritarian regimes. American Journal of Political Science 53(2):477–494.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Svolik, Milan W. 2012. The politics of authoritarian rule. Cambrige: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Svolik, Milan W. 2013. Contracting on violence the moral hazard in authoritarian repression and military intervention in politics. Journal of Conflict Resolution 57(5):765–794.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Terence, Lee. 2009. The armed forces and transitions from authoritarian rule: explaining the role of the military in 1986 Philippines and 1998 Indonesia. Comparative Political Studies 42(5):640–669.

    Google Scholar 

  • Terence, Lee. 2014. Defect or defend: military responses to popular protests in authoritarian Asia. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tilly, Charles. 1978. From mobilization to revolution. New York: McGraw-Hill.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tofalvi, Fruzsina. 2013. Military disloyalty and regime change. CEU Political Science Journal 8(1):79–107.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tullock, Gordon. 1987. Autocracy. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishing.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Varol, Ozan O. 2011. The Democratic Coup d’État. Harvard International Law Journal 53(2):292–356.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wahman, Michael, Jan Teorell, und Axel Hadenius. 2013. Authoritarian regime types revisited: updated data in comparative perspective. Contemporary Politics 19(1):19–34.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wendy, Hunter. 1997. Eroding military influence in Brazil: politicians against soldiers. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wintrobe, Ronald. 2000. The Political Economy of Dictatorship. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wolfsfeld, Gadi, Elad Segev, und Tamir Sheafer. 2013. Social media and the Arab spring politics comes first. The International Journal of Press/Politics 18(2):115–137.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institut für Politische Wissenschaft, Universität Heidelberg, Bergheimer Str. 58, 69115, Heidelberg, Deutschland

    David Kühn

Authors
  1. David Kühn
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to David Kühn.

Additional information

Dieser Literaturbericht entstand im Rahmen des von der DFG geförderten Forschungsprojekts „Dictator’s Endgame. Theory and empirical analysis of military behavior in authoritarian regime crises, 1946–2014“ (KU 2485/4–1). Für hilfreiche Diskussionen danke ich Aurel Croissant und Tanja Eschenauer.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Kühn, D. „Diktatorenendspiel“. Z Politikwiss 26, 351–363 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41358-016-0056-x

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41358-016-0056-x

Search

Navigation