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Climate Change Induced Precipitation and Temperature Effects on Water Resources: the Case of Borkena Watershed in the Highlands of Wollo, Central Ethiopia

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Abstract

This study acquiring series issue of climate change which significantly affect the amount of precipitation and temperature at regional level, which intern would affect the water resources and future water availability of Borkena watershed located in the highlands of Wollo in Awash Basin, Ethiopia. Bias corrected Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenario data were used for precipitation and temperature projections in the 2050s. The projection result indicates mean annual precipitation increases at a rate of 14.70% and 13.21%; similarly, temperature increases by 1.16 °C and 1.59 °C, under both scenarios, respectively. After the projections of precipitation and temperature, Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) was used to simulate future streamflow and current evaporation estimated by Penman-Monteith while Hargreaves methods were used to estimate future evapotranspiration. The evaluation result showed that hydrological model is well performed for the watershed with daily R2 values 0.79 and 0.85 and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values 0.78 and 0.83 for calibration and validation periods, respectively. Results of this study present climate change induced temperature and precipitation changes significantly affect the monthly, seasonally, and annually evapotranspiration and streamflow of the watershed. The results show an increase in projected Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) at a rate of 2.77% and 3.20%; similarly, mean annual streamflow increases up to 22.63% and 14.57% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Seasonally, the mean streamflow during Kiremt and Bega expected to increase by 4.5% and 90.57% and 7.5% and 57.39%, but Belg season would decrease by 27.18% and 21.16% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. These results are important to consider the influence of climate change on water resources of central Ethiopia, which is valuable for the planning and management of water resources in different watersheds of Ethiopia.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank the data support of Ethiopian Ministry of Water Resources, Irrigation and Electricity and National Meteorological Service Agency.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Kombolcha Institute of Technology, Wollo University, Kombolcha, Ethiopia

    Fikru F. Abera, Solomon Arega & Birhanu H. Gedamu

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  1. Fikru F. Abera
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Contributions

Solomon Arega, Berhanu Gedamu, and Fikru F. Abera designed the study, developed the methodology, and wrote the manuscript. Berhanu H. Gedamu and Solomon Arega performed the field work, collected the data, and conducted the computer analysis. Fikru F. Abera supervised this part of the work and directed the study by helping to interpret the results and to improve the quality of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Fikru F. Abera.

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Abera, F.F., Arega, S. & Gedamu, B.H. Climate Change Induced Precipitation and Temperature Effects on Water Resources: the Case of Borkena Watershed in the Highlands of Wollo, Central Ethiopia. Water Conserv Sci Eng 5, 53–66 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41101-020-00084-8

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