Table 4 reports the outcome of the DID estimates regarding the effects of the training program, i.e., the coefficients (\({\beta }_{3}\)) associated with the interaction term \({Treated}_{i}*{Post}_{t}\) of Eq. (1) for several regressions, including covariates.Footnote 15 Covariates consist of participation in WPC (compulsory/voluntary attendance), number of loans, last loan amount, business previously owned by relatives and knowledge of English language. Col. (1) and (2) show the results obtained by analyzing the full sample, with the differences computed between January and March 2010 and between January and June 2010 respectively.Footnote 16
Table 4 Impact of training – DID with covariates Money management practices
The results (col. (1) and (2)) suggest a substantial positive impact of the training on money management practices, especially regarding the calculation of profit, basic principles of separating personal and business money and keeping track of revenues and expenditures.
These results are consistent with hypothesis H1 and the findings of previous studies (de Mel et al. 2014; Karlan and Valdivia 2011; Mano et al. 2012; McKenzie and Woodruff 2014; Valdivia 2015).
There is instead no significant evidence of a reduction in the share of borrowers who use loans for purposes other than business activities. Loan-drift is common among poor households (about 45% of the women declare they use the money for non-productive purposes, Table 2). Qualitative interviews testified, however, that recipients normally use the loan for unexpected events, such as medical expenses or ceremonies, whereas they rarely use borrowed money for personal consumption.Footnote 17 It is important to note that not only the course stressed the importance of using loans for business activities, but also IIMC constantly reiterates this message. The absence of a significant result suggests that treated women sincerely reported the changes that occurred after the course.
Participants’ economic outcomes
Results relating to personal and household economic outcomes (col. (2)), such as savings, withdrawals, income and expenditure, show that the experiment has not been effective in modifying households’ revenues and/or consumption habits. These results are not consistent with hypothesis H2 but consistent with the findings of previous studies (Berge et al. 2015; Giné and Mansuri 2014). One possible explanation for this result is that real constraints hamper business outcomes, such as revenues and profits, and personal consumption and savings decisions. Improving women's money management and entrepreneurial skills seems unable to overcome these constraints, at least in the short term. This result seems to confirm that substantial improvements in the outcomes of income-generating activities carried out by women, on the verge of subsistence entrepreneurship, require a higher level of intervention on the economic and social conditions of the context in which they operate (Bruton et al. 2015; Neal 2017).
Loan repayment performance
Estimates (col. (2)) provide evidence that the course had the strong positive effect of improving loan repayment performance. In particular, it should be noted that the average missing repayments per month at the time of the experiment were 0.831 (Table 2), whereas the average number of due repayments should be 4.35 per month, meaning that 19% (0.831/4.35) of the installments were not repaid at the due date but were delayed. An estimated effect of − 0.330 implies that post-treatment average delayed repayments become 11.5% (0.501/4.35). Similar effects are estimated excluding double repayments.Footnote 18 These results are consistent with hypothesis H3 and, in general, with the findings of some previous studies (Chowdhury and Mukhopadhaya 2012; Karlan and Valdivia 2011; Ledgerwood 1998; Roslan and Karim 2009). Better repayment performances can be the effect of improved money management practices by women but also of their greater willingness to show trustworthiness to the institution that provided the course.
Empowerment
Another interesting effect of the course is on the observed impact on decision making within the household (col. (1) and (2)), as the associated parameter is strongly significant and positive. This result is consistent with hypothesis H4 and previous findings in the literature (Cook, Belliveau and Von Seggern 2001; Edgcomb 2002; Dumas 2001). However, we cannot explain this result, as Karlan and Valdivia (2011) suggest, with improved business success because we did not find positive and significant economic outcomes. We may suppose that women became more empowered in their families either because they showed greater competence or confidence or because they acquired a greater status for having participated in the course.
The estimated effect of the course is also positive and significant on the variables relating to empowerment in social relations. In particular, sharing business experiences within the group (col. (1)–(2)) and asking advice about business (col. (2)) turn out to be significant and with the expected sign, especially in the follow-up period. For the short-term effects (col. (1)), however, the impact on seeking business advice cannot be tested due to lack of sufficient answers in the first training evaluation questionnaire. These results are consistent with hypothesis H4 and suggest that the women felt safe to express themselves with their classmates. As indicated by Cajiao and Burke (2016), this perception of psychological safety can have further contributed to the effects associated with course design. The supportive environment provided by IIMC, in particular with its debt collection mechanism built on tolerance and persuasion rather than on short-term coercive methods and sanctions, and by combining microcredit with other social programs, may have contributed decisively to this result. Indeed, a pleasant atmosphere and a supportive environment have a key role in enhancing learners’ motivation (Huang 2003; Saeed and Zyngier 2012; Williams and Williams 2011). Interestingly, Karlan and Valdivia (2011) do not find an empowerment effect of the training in their study of a pure microfinance institution that applies a much stricter policy.
This result also suggests that the course allowed women to develop a greater interaction with each other than they had previously developed within microcredit groups and, in general, that it is possible and convenient to intervene actively to facilitate the internal dynamics of microcredit groups.
Entrepreneurship
Regarding the impact of training on entrepreneurship, the results (col. (1) and (2)) are less clear. The intention to start a new business increased at the end of the course, but this intent rapidly decreased in the following months. The intention to introduce new products, already present at the end of the course, significantly improved in the follow-up period. These results are not fully consistent with hypothesis H5, but are consistent with the results of Karlan and Valdivia (2011). The course seems to have stimulated a passing intention that women have only partially realized. This result also can be the effect of real difficulties present in the IIMC context and suggests the need for supporting women who intend to introduce innovations in their businesses. These aspects will be further explored in the next sections.
Interest in training
The results (col. (1) and (2), Table 4) show that the interest in another free training course of the same kind did not vary in a significant way, although the participants in the course became much more motivated to pay for further instruction. However, low powerFootnote 19 seems to be a serious concern, especially in light of the fact that the treated group expressed its willingness to bear the cost of further training. Hence, there is partial evidence on the fact that H6 may hold. We will deserve more in-depth investigation also to these features.
Robustness check
Differences in baseline characteristics
Table 2 shows that the balancing properties for some baseline characteristics of the treated and control groups do not hold. The problem appears serious because significant differences are observed on some variables that are also the main target outcomes of the experiment (such as missed repayments).
In order to provide robustness to the empirical evidence illustrated in the previous section, we supplemented the analysis with further regressions to show that the main results are robust to different specifications of the estimated equation. First, as standard practice, we performed Simple Difference regressions with baseline values of the dependent variables to account for initial discrepancies between treated women and those in the control group. Second, and most relevant, we checked whether these baseline differences are likely to interact with treatment by including also an interaction term between the baseline values and the treatment dummy. In particular, we assume that a non-significant interaction term excludes the possibility that the observed disparities may affect the estimated treatment effects.
Estimates show that almost all the parameters associated with the interaction term are indeed not significant.Footnote 20 We conclude that the observed post-treatment outcome for the treated subjects is not affected by the initial disparities, and that these differences were probably due to the larger presence of WPC women in the treated group,Footnote 21 or random and due to the small-scale of the experiment.Footnote 22
ANCOVA
Following the indications from David McKenzie (2012)Footnote 23 and related discussion with other scholars, we considered an ACOVA model. Since dependent variables are sometimes correlated,Footnote 24 ANCOVA should provide more efficient estimates than OLS. Results do not provide substantial differences compared to the previous estimates.Footnote 25 In particular, estimated parameters are quite similar to those obtained using baseline DID, whereas efficiency gains are limited.
Principal component analysis (PCA)
A common concern with studies testing multiple hypotheses is that there are many outcomes tested at the same time, which increases the chances of false positives. For this reason, we conducted a Principal Component Analysis to construct representative measures for each of the six hypotheses H1–H6. We obtained Factor 1-Factor 6, the main principal components. Regressions, reproducing those described in the previous sub-sections were performed using factors from PCA, rather than the full set of outcome variables. Results, reported in Table 5, are in line with the main analysis, confirming that all the hypotheses hold, except H2 related to the attendees’ economic outcomes, saving, and consumption habits.
Table 5 Impact of training – DID with and without covariates—All participants – Principal component analysis Further empirical evidence
Compulsory vs. voluntary attendance
Focusing on the possible different effects of the training on participants for whom attendance was compulsory (treated WPC members) versus volunteers (microcredit borrowers non-WPC members) (Table 4, col. (3) and (4)),Footnote 26 it can be immediately concluded that the former found much greater advantage from the course. This result is consistent with hypothesis H7. Specifically, compared to non-treated WPC members, treated WPC members improved significantly their money management practices and repayment performances, as well as their empowerment, both within and outside the household. Instead, compared to untreated volunteers, treated volunteers only reduced the practice of using the loan for purposes other than those related to their business.
High interest in training vs. low interest in training
We compared borrowers who at the beginning of the course declared a high interest in entrepreneurial training, i.e., their intention to pay a small amount for a course, versus those who had a low interest, i.e., declared to be only interested in a free course (Table 4, col. (5) and (6)).Footnote 27 Estimates provide evidence that the group with previous interest in costly training is likely to achieve significant improvements in several fields. In particular, treated women among this group are likely to reduce missing repayments, increase interest in starting new businesses, and became more empowered. This confirms that H8 holds specifically for this subset of attendees.
The outcome associated with the increase in monthly spending for the group with the greatest interest in paying for future training probably reflects the fact that it is the richest women who want to support such kind of investment.
Attendance and interest
Considered altogether, women who have been required to compulsorily attend the course and those who were initially willing to pay for the training have been the ones who benefited the most from this opportunity.
However, given the positive correlation (17%) between the status of WPC affiliate and the willingness to pay for training, we opted for contemporaneously including the interaction terms treatment-voluntary and treatment-interest in the regression in order to see if one effect prevails over the other.
Although non-randomness prevents us from making any considerations regarding the causality mechanisms undergoing between the treatment applied to some particular categories of borrowers and the outcome variables, the results may be useful for providing indications in terms of either focusing more on the selection of the attendees or promoting stronger discipline during the program to maximize its effects. The results are reported in col. (7) and (8) of Table 4.
As is evident from the higher significance of some of the parameters in col. (8) (compared to col. (7)), the willingness to participate in a costly training seems to overcome the difference in impact between the women required to attend and the volunteers. The most significant effects of the treatment are observed on empowerment variables, such as joining the husband’s work, asking business advice, and sharing work experience with peers. It is also noteworthy that treated women who showed more interest in further training became more interested in developing new products and starting new business activities. An increase in monthly expenditure is also confirmed.
Overall, the empirical evidence suggests that to stimulate the learning process, the empowerment level of the beneficiaries, and their entrepreneurial skills, the MFI should concentrate more on selecting those who show more interest in learning. Indeed, the empirical evidence in col. (7) and (8) suggests that the mandatory participation requirement does not seem to be a key factor in determining the success of the program.
Leverage effects of training on entrepreneurial ideas: diligence, homework grades, and human capital
As in previous teaching experiments of business practices (Karlan and Valdivia 2011), the analyses conducted so far provides limited insights regarding the ability of the course to stimulate the start-up of new businesses and the development of new products. In this section, our purpose is to shed light on these aspects exploiting heterogeneities among the borrowers. Information on whether new activities started in the period spanning from the end of the course to 3 months later is available from the follow-up survey submitted in June.Footnote 28
Given these details, our first aim is to understand whether the program had the effect of encouraging those participants who had some projects in mind before attending the course to persevere in trying to implement their ideas. Our second purpose is to verify whether the course has been supportive in helping the participants with a higher level of human capital during the course (those who have shown greater diligence and achieved higher homework evaluation) to realize their intents.
As for the first aim, two relevant questions were asked before the start of the course. The first question is whether the respondent had the intention to start a new business, while the second is whether she had the intention to develop a new product. Combining the responses, which capture the borrowers’ intentions, with the information on whether they succeeded in implementing new activities afterwards, may shed light on the possibility that the program has been successful in encouraging those who had valuable entrepreneurial ideas to insist on pursuing their initial objectives.
We used a linear model to estimate the relationship between borrowers’ baseline characteristics and the intention to either start a new job or develop a new product for the control group. Then, we generated the predicted values of the variables “Intention to start a new business” and “Intention to introduce a new product” for the overall sample to obtain the probability of having "potentially" successful projects, net of the possible effects of being selected among the treated group. Finally, we interacted these predicted variables with the treatment dummy to estimate whether the program succeeded in turning good ideas into real investments.
The results are reported in the upper part of Table 6. The estimates provide evidence that the training program significantly helped women who had the intention to start a new business and to develop new products to persevere.
Table 6 Impact of training—role of potentially successful projects and diligence As for the second purpose, we completed a similar exercise using the information on the grades achieved by the attendees in homework assignments, including the quality of their business plans, as a measure of entrepreneurial skills,Footnote 29 and women’s class attendance ratesFootnote 30 as a proxy of their diligence throughout the course.Footnote 31 Our purpose is to evaluate whether the program succeeded in separating high-skilled and diligent attendees from low-skilled and less diligent ones, and whether training helped the best ones to start new projects and/or products.
Contrary to large-scale experiments, a small-scale RCT allowed us to grade all home assignments and the attendees’ business plans, as well as to keep track of their attendance rates. Obviously, grades and attendance rates are available only for the treated group.Footnote 32 Therefore, we reverted the approach previously used to estimate the effects of intentions on actual start-up measures.
In particular, after comparing the baseline characteristics of the two groups with higher and lower human capitalFootnote 33 we regressed the grades of the treated group at the end of the course on baseline borrowers’ characteristics and then used this model to predict the grades for the overall sample.Footnote 34 Then, as in the previous case, we regressed the actual development of new businesses or products on the predicted grades interacted with the treatment dummy. An analogous model has been adopted to estimate the role of the attendance rate on the setup of new ventures.
The results (Table 6, lower part) indicate that good grades and high attendance tend to increase the likelihood of starting new activities and/or of introducing new products, as suggested by the positive sign and significance of the parameters referred to the interaction between grades and the treatment variable. This confirms that H9 holds, as better educated and more diligent entrepreneurs, end up with taking more effective business decisions (Baklouti 2013; Bhatt and Tang 2002).
General assessment and comparison with other studies
We believe that the context in which our experiment was conducted (greater poverty, illiteracy and lower women’s emancipation) may have made the difference in the results of our study, compared to other RCTs (especially Karlan and Valdivia 2011).
In particular, with reference to the household empowerment effects, we obtained an extremely positive response from the course. Indian women, especially those living in the area of Kolkata, are on average less emancipated than elsewhere. Their activities at IIMC, including initiatives related to the microcredit program, are subject to the authorization of the husband. The husbands participated in the experiment (indirectly, but they were also invited to one of the training sessions), trusting the benefits that the course could have provided to their wives and the overall family. Women were allowed, at least initially, to apply the notions learned during the course to their husband's business. Hence, we obtained greater leverage from the point of view of empowerment, compared to previous studies (including K&V) conducted in contexts where women's emancipation is already at acceptable levels.
Another element of difference at the institutional level is the more supportive environment provided by IIMC (in particular debt collection mechanism), built on tolerance and persuasion rather than on short-term coercive methods and sanctions.). The consequence of this is that IIMC customers normally experience long delays and are unwilling to accumulate savings. This probably happens to a lesser extent in other contexts due to the incurred penalties.Footnote 35 In our opinion, the course may have helped to compensate for these more lenient policies towards customers, many of whom have realized without the need for coercive rules that delays, loan diversion, and over-indebtedness (a common practice in India) are harmful to them and their households.
Similarly, from the point of view of learning the basic principles of financial management, we obtained more significant results because we operated in a context in which the beneficiaries of the treatment had no knowledge of calculation. It was, therefore, relatively easy to achieve small but significant progress (separation of money from that of business, profit calculation, keeping income-expenditure records).
Other studies, including Karlan and Valdivia (2011), obtain more significant results than us from the point of view of the increase in sales and the general performance of already existing activities. We have no evidence from the point of view of income growth, but we have positive results on the start of new businesses, particularly for some sub-groups of beneficiaries. In our case, the absence of evidence on income may be dictated by the shorter duration of our experiment and the observation period, which may not have fully captured the economic benefits of the course in the long run. The fact that the IIMC women did not conduct any activities before the course may instead explain the greater success in having undertaken new businesses, unlike the women of FINCA who instead probably opted to enhance the activities they already were conducting.
In conclusion, we interpret the effects of training programs like ours as having positive but decreasing returns to scale: if the beneficiaries start from low levels of education, empowerment and wealth, even basic notions can have a strong hold on them, ceteris paribus.