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Examining the Relation Between Estimated Life Expectancy and Delinquency Across Development: an Examination of Adolescent Males Following Their First Arrest

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Abstract

Adolescents who anticipate a shorter lifespan are more likely to engage in reckless behavior, but few studies consider whether an adolescent’s estimated life expectancy (ELE) demonstrates change across development. This study examined whether ELE changes over time, and if these changes are associated with within-person changes in delinquency in 1147 males who had been arrested for the first time. An accelerated cohort design provided data for youth aged 14–21. Estimated life expectancy showed linear change, suggesting that adolescents grow more optimistic about their life expectancy as they age. Within person, increases in ELE were associated with decreased offending, a pattern consistent across development. These findings support the utility of ELE as a target for intervention in reducing adolescent crime.

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Notes

  1. When applying the same analytic approach to the reverse model (i.e., using delinquency as the independent variable and ELE as the dependent variable), the results suggest that within-and between-person changes in delinquency are significantly related to changes in ELE. A full report of these analyses is available upon request.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Arizona State University, Phoenix, AZ, USA

    Alissa Knowles

  2. School of Criminology, Simon Frasier University, Vancouver, Canada

    Zachary Rowan

  3. Department of Psychology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA

    Paul J. Frick

  4. Australian Catholic University, Brisbane, Australia

    Paul J. Frick

  5. Department of Psychology, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, USA

    Laurence Steinberg

  6. King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

    Laurence Steinberg

  7. Department of Psychological Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA

    Elizabeth Cauffman

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  1. Alissa Knowles
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  2. Zachary Rowan
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Correspondence to Alissa Knowles.

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Knowles, A., Rowan, Z., Frick, P.J. et al. Examining the Relation Between Estimated Life Expectancy and Delinquency Across Development: an Examination of Adolescent Males Following Their First Arrest. J Dev Life Course Criminology 8, 1–24 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40865-021-00177-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40865-021-00177-5

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