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Multi-site hydrometeorological simulation of streamflow for upper Jhelum basin in northwest Himalayas using HEC–HMS soil moisture accounting algorithm

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Abstract

Hydrometeorological influence on run-off is a process-driven mechanism in basin hydrology that needs to be captured for a reliable assessment of the basin-scale hydrological responses in the context of climate change. In this study, one of such process-based model, the Hydrologic Engineering Center–Hydrologic Modeling System model is used to simulate multi-site streamflow in the upper Jhelum basin, northwest Himalayas, India. The soil moisture accounting algorithm was used to calibrate and validate the model for continuous simulation on a monthly timescale at three gauging stations Ram Munshi Bhag, Sangam, and Rambiara. The model was calibrated for a period of 12 years (2003–2014) and validated for 5 years (2015–2019). Observed and simulated streamflow values during the calibration period were found to be in good agreement with R2 ranging from 0.783 to 0.808, NSE from 0.753 to 0.793, and P.B from 2.7 to 5.1%. Similar performance was obtained during the validation period also with R2 ranging from 0.80 to 0.83, NSE from 0.70 to 0.80, and PB from 2 to 6.8%. The sensitivity analysis of the model was performed using one-at-a-time analysis method. This helps to rank the parameter according to their sensitivities towards the model performance in simulating run-off volume. Soil storage, soil tension storage, and soil percolation were found to be the most sensitive parameters while groundwater-2 coefficient storage, and percolation were the least sensitive parameters in the basin. The overall model performance was reasonably good, and can be further used for rainfall–run-off simulation in the upper Jhelum basin for the climate change impact related studies in future.

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Availability of data and materials

Daily Metrological data were obtained from Indian Meteorological Center (IMC) Rambagh, Jammu and Kashmir, India and measured data of Stages and corresponding discharge for the gauging stations were obtained from the department of irrigation and flood control, Jammu and Kashmir, India.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are highly thankful for the assistance provided by the institute authorities and department of Civil engineering for providing the immense support to carry out this research. The authors are grateful to the Ministry of Human Resource Development (MHRD), Government of India, for providing funding support to carry out this research work.

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  1. Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Srinagar, Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, 190006, India

    Taroob Bashir Naqash & Manzoor Ahmad Ahanger

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, West Bengal, 721302, India

    Rajib Maity

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Naqash, T.B., Ahanger, M.A. & Maity, R. Multi-site hydrometeorological simulation of streamflow for upper Jhelum basin in northwest Himalayas using HEC–HMS soil moisture accounting algorithm. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 9, 431–455 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-022-01510-7

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