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PM2.5 concentration modeling and mapping in the urban areas

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Abstract

The aim of our study was to compare and evaluate four models by which the ground-level PM2.5 concentrations in the urban area are predicted. These are ordinary kriging (OK), universal kriging (UK), inverse distance weighting (IDW), and multi-layer perceptron (MLP). Root mean square error (RMSE) and standard deviation (SD) were used to select semi-variogram and the transformation type of renormalized data in kriging models. The spherical semi-variogram, Box-Cox with the power parameter equal to one, and first order trend of removal were used to run OK and UK models. In the IDW method, the weighing was conducted according to the distance between points and the measurement station. The trial and error method along with a coefficient of determination (R2) and the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) values were used to obtain the optimum model in MLP approach. Regarding the mapping, the nearest area to main roads showed generally the highest annual average concentrations of PM2.5. Based on the RMSE and R2 of models, the order of fitted models of PM2.5 concentrations in the air from the best to worst was as follows: MLP > OK > UK > IDW.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would also like to show your gratitude to the individuals and departments who supplied PM2.5 data from their respective local and district councils.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Student Research Committee, Esfarayen Faculty of Medical Sciences, Esfarayen, Iran

    Abdolmajid Gholizadeh & Ali Asghar Neshat

  2. Environmental and Food Hygiene Laboratory (LIAA), Department of Medical, Surgical Sciences and Advanced Technologies “G.F. Ingrassia”, University of Catania, Catania, Italy

    Gea Oliveri Conti, Pietro Zuccarello & Margherita Ferrante

  3. Social Determinants in Health Promotion Research Center, Hormozgan Health Institute, Hormozgan University of Medical Sciences, Bandar Abbas, Iran

    Hamid Reza Ghaffari

  4. Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Semnan University of Medical Sciences, Semnan, Iran

    Hamideh Ebrahimi Aval

  5. GIS & RS Department, Engineering College, Yazd Branch, Islamic Azad University, Yazd, Iran

    Seyyed Ali Almodarresi

  6. Department of Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Hamedan University of Medical Sciences, Hamedan, Iran

    Mohsen Yazdani Aval

  7. Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Social Development & Health Promotion Research Center, Gonabad University of Medical Sciences, Gonabad, Iran

    Mahmoud Taghavi

  8. Department of Public Health, Maragheh University of Medical Sciences, Maragheh, Iran

    Amir Mohammadi

  9. Cellular and Molecular Research Center, Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Sabzevar University of Medical Sciences, Sabzevar, Iran

    Mohammad Miri

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  1. Abdolmajid Gholizadeh
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  2. Ali Asghar Neshat
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  3. Gea Oliveri Conti
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  4. Hamid Reza Ghaffari
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  5. Hamideh Ebrahimi Aval
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  9. Mahmoud Taghavi
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  12. Mohammad Miri
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Correspondence to Mohammad Miri.

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Gholizadeh, A., Neshat, A.A., Conti, G.O. et al. PM2.5 concentration modeling and mapping in the urban areas. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 5, 897–906 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-019-00576-0

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