1 Introduction

This discussion examines the setting of the legal regime governing third country access to the UK financial market, in light of the political, market, and legal disruption associated with the UK withdrawal from the EU. It identifies a significant liberalization of the regime and considers the implications.Footnote 1

Section 2 considers the UK reform context and the priority being given to securing UK financial market competitiveness. Section 3 relates this context to the more restrictive legal setting of the UK’s access to the EU financial market following the UK withdrawal. Section 4 examines the current reforms. Section 5 examines the implications for the UK, the EU, and international financial market access.Footnote 2

2 The Context: Politics, Markets, and Reform

UK financial regulation is at an inflection point with the largest reform exercise since the financial crisis underway.Footnote 3 This exercise is distinct from previous large-scale UK reforms in that it is being carried out by the UK outside the EU.Footnote 4 It accordingly constitutes a political and technocratic expression of the ‘take back control’ agenda which animated the Brexit debate.Footnote 5 Some of the associated reform rhetoric likely constitutes political positioning. Nonetheless, and while the reforms do not imply normative change to the basis of UK financial regulation,Footnote 6 substantial deregulation may follow, certainly if the reforms to the prospectus and listing regimes, in the vanguard of the exercise, are a reliable guide.Footnote 7 Relatedly, the massive body of EU financial markets regulation ‘on-shored’ in the UK to mitigate withdrawal risksFootnote 8 will be repealed.Footnote 9 Significant institutional reform has already been achieved, with the architecture supporting UK financial regulation being revised to respond to the repatriation of rule-making competence to the UK from the EU.Footnote 10

The interests and incentives shaping the reforms, which are framed by the political imperative to secure regulatory autonomy post Brexit, are many and various, but the need to strengthen UK financial market competitiveness through regulatory reform recurs. The competitiveness of the UK public equity market, in particular, while long debated,Footnote 11 is of acute concern. The equity market weaknesses highlighted by the 2021 Hill ReviewFootnote 12 were brought into sharp relief over 2022–2023, given, inter alia, the significant drop in volumes of capital raised in 2022 on the London Stock Exchange,Footnote 13 a series of de-listings from the Exchange in 2023,Footnote 14 and the 2023 decision by the leading UK chip manufacturer Arm not to seek a primary listing of its much-anticipated IPO on the London Stock Exchange.Footnote 15 The public equity market challenges are not unique to the UK,Footnote 16 and are not entirely a function of regulation.Footnote 17 The securing of competitiveness through de-regulation is, nonetheless, a recurring theme of the UK reform agenda,Footnote 18 and has been given normative and operational priority through a change to the FCA’s objectives.Footnote 19 The fragility in global financial markets arising from tightening monetary policy,Footnote 20 exemplified by the early 2023 SVB failure, may moderate the current relating of competitiveness to de-regulation, but the direction of travel is unlikely to change significantly.Footnote 21

The driving concern to support competitiveness through (de-)regulatory reform is also shaping the UK’s increasingly liberal posture on third country access to its financial market. These third-country-specific reforms are a function of the incentives and interests shaping the wider reform context, but they can also be associated with specific interests relating to mitigation of the costs arising from the legal frictions on UK access to the EU financial market, as outlined in the following section.

3 UK Access to the EU Financial Market

3.1 Withdrawal Arrangements and the TCA

Access by third country actors to the EU financial market has long been associated with the EU’s ‘equivalence’ regime.Footnote 22 The EU’s equivalence arrangements, set out in relevant sectoral legislation, operate on a ‘deference’ basis.Footnote 23 Where the third country regime’s regulatory (and increasingly supervisory and enforcement) arrangements are ‘equivalent to’ (broadly, aligned with) the EU’s arrangements (in accordance with relevant legislative criteria), and subject to compliance with differing forms of gate-keeping registration/recognition/oversight requirements (typically, but not always, managed supranationally by ESMA), pan-EU access to the EU’s financial market opens for the relevant third country’s firms. The third country firm can accordingly operate in the ‘host’ EU market under its ‘home’ rules/license and so the EU ‘defers’ to the third country regime. The equivalence decision which unlocks pan-EU passporting benefits rests with the Commission (advised by ESMA) and is, as the Commission often underlines, discretionary and contingent.Footnote 24

The EU’s access-related equivalence arrangements are, however, silo-ed and partial and are not available for all financial market sectors. Third country actors must then either engage with each Member State in which they seek to operate and comply with relevant national (and increasingly harmonized) rules, including as regards branch establishment (such actors are accordingly ‘landlocked’ within the relevant Member State); or ‘subsidiarize’ by using EU-based subsidiaries which, as EU actors, benefit from EU rights, including passporting rights, but which carry costs, including as regards taxation, risk management, capital and liquidity management, and compliance with the ‘single rulebook’ that governs EU financial markets.Footnote 25

On 1 January 2021, UK firms lost their EU authorizations, and their access to the EU financial market became dependent on this third country regime. The potential legal frictions and market risks attendant on the adjustment to this new legal setting were, given the extensive UK/EU interdependencies,Footnote 26 significant.Footnote 27 They engaged, inter alia, potential contractual continuity risks, financial stability risks (in particular relating to the inability of UK central clearing counterparties (CCPs) to clear euro-denominated financial derivatives), and liquidity and funding risks relating to the removal of UK dealing capacity from the EU. A series of risk mitigations by regulators and the market followed, including the temporary licensing of UK firms by Member State regulators; two temporary Commission equivalence decisions to minimize ‘cliff-edge’ disruptions (relating to the UK regime governing CCPs (this arrangement is still in force, until 2025) and to the UK regime governing central securities depositaries (now lapsed)); and a series of market mitigations, including private contracting arrangements such as novation, the establishment of EU subsidiaries, and the use of delegation and outsourcing techniques to channel operations from EU subsidiaries (from which business could be passported) to UK entities.

The changed legal setting also engaged more long-term risks to the sustainability of the UK financial market, given potential threats to market strength (in particular to liquidity) were it to become a less attractive financial centre.Footnote 28 These risks could have been mitigated through new UK/EU trading arrangements. But by contrast with the withdrawal-related mitigations, the UK did not secure such bespoke trading mitigations from the EU, reflecting the political setting for the negotiations as well as the asymmetry in negotiating positions. The UK sought a tailored access arrangement for financial markets, based on the UK and EU recognizing their respective regulatory regimes and allowing dynamic regulatory divergence as long as high-level outcomes converged.Footnote 29 The EU’s position, reflecting a host of interests (including the concern not to allow UK ‘cherry picking’ of single market access, and the imperative to secure competitive advantage and support Capital Markets UnionFootnote 30), was consistent in rejecting any form of tailored UK access to the single financial market, and in making access a function of the third country regime, including its equivalence arrangements. The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) accordingly ‘covers financial services in the same way as they are generally covered in the EU’s other FTAs [free trade agreements] with third countries.’Footnote 31 It thus affords UK firms the foundational WTO rights that apply to services generally, particularly as regards establishment and national treatment/non-discrimination.Footnote 32 UK firms can establish in the EU, for example, through subsidiaries or branches, subject to the relevant authorization and other EU or national rules which apply.Footnote 33 The TCA relatedly applies the WTO ‘prudential carve-out’ in that nothing in the TCA prevents either party from adopting or maintaining measures for prudential reasons.Footnote 34 The parties’ respective ‘rights to regulate’, and accordingly to apply authorization, regulation, equivalence, and other requirements, are thereby protected. UK firms must therefore use the ‘standard’ equivalence or other establishment-related routes available under EU (and related Member State) law.Footnote 35

The immediate impact of the changed legal setting was muted, given the advance risk mitigations.Footnote 36 The most dramatic effect was on share trading, with the first day of trading after the end of the UK transition period seeing a large shift in liquidity from UK trading venues to EU venues as the MiFIR Article 23 ‘Share Trading Obligation’ (which requires certain equity transactions to take place on EU trading venues or venues determined to be equivalent; there was no such determination for the UK) took effect.Footnote 37 This shift in liquidity became an early emblem of the impact of the change of legal status, post EU withdrawal, on the UK financial market.Footnote 38

3.2 UK Access to the EU

Despite the high profile in the UK of the EU access/equivalence regime following the 2016 referendum, the UK exit from the EU came and went without the regime being of any real significance. No equivalence decisions of substance were adopted by the Commission as regards the UK, save the temporary and idiosyncratic CCP equivalence decision in place until 2025.Footnote 39 Other EU access routes were (and had to be) found, two in particular.

First, UK firms established EU subsidiaries (which also provided platforms from which business could be outsourced/delegated to UK group functions), mainly for dealing and risk management business. Second, the outsourcing/delegation arrangements already in common use in the EU collective investment management sphere, and permitted (if regulated) under EU funds legislation, were deployed for funds.Footnote 40 Both these access routes are, in principle, relatively stable legal supports for the export of UK financial market services to the EU, albeit that current indications suggest that more stringent controls are likely to be placed on fund delegation practices.Footnote 41 Nonetheless, and while the EU equivalence regime is in principle contingent, implies a significant incursion into home regulatory autonomy, and is becoming increasingly restrictive,Footnote 42 it has material advantages in that, once equivalence is granted, it supports passporting on the basis of home oversight.Footnote 43

In the immediate wake of the UK withdrawal, equivalence was in principle achievable. The UK financial markets rulebook was more or less identical to the EU single rulebook, being composed of ‘on-shored’ EU regulation. Further, powerful incentives and interests, not least as regards transaction cost avoidance and given the extent to which the UK had shaped the single rulebook,Footnote 44 could be identified to suggest that UK divergence would not be material and so equivalence would be achievable, at least technically. The UK has, however, consistently objected to the dynamic alignment that the equivalence process demands, given its need to secure its post-Brexit regulatory autonomy.Footnote 45 Relatedly, it has characterized the equivalence process as requiring ‘rule-taking’ inimical to its large and systemic financial centre. These objections are political,Footnote 46 but they are also technocratic given in particular financial stability risk management concerns.Footnote 47 Nonetheless, initial political indications suggested that any future regulatory divergence would reflect ‘what is right for the UK’ and not constitute large-scale deregulation.Footnote 48 Similarly, the UK regulators cautioned against any expectations of a ‘bonfire of regulation’.Footnote 49 Since then, however, the scale of the UK reforms and the acuity of the focus on competitiveness suggest that the level of divergence from the EU single rulebook could, certainly over time, be substantial (if technical; the normative basis of both regimes will likely remain aligned). A positive equivalence determination is, accordingly, increasingly looking to be challenging. This is all the more the case as, from the EU side, there were (and are), few indications of either special treatment for the UK or the ‘standard’ equivalence process being opened to assess UK rules. The EU had initially intimated that the UK equivalence assessment should be completed by end June 2020,Footnote 50 but progress was minimal,Footnote 51 and political tensions related to the Northern Ireland Protocol subsequently put all equivalence-related discussions in abeyance.

The effective irrelevance of the equivalence regime, the costs of subsidiarization, and the risks associated with any changes to the funds delegation/outsourcing regime can, given the frictions thereby placed on UK firms and counterparties, reasonably be regarded as giving rise to incentives to adopt a remedial, liberal approach to third country access to the UK financial market to protect market depth. In practice, such liberalization is following, as outlined in the next section.

4 The Evolving UK Third Country Regime

4.1 The UK Approach to the Withdrawal

As an EU Member State, the UK’s third country access arrangements for financial markets were based on EU requirements but also included UK-specific elements. A patchwork of arrangements accordingly governed third country access. These extended from EU-mandated equivalence and related recognition/registration requirements (such as those of the Prospectus RegulationFootnote 52), to UK-specific requirements for third country investment firm branches, for example, and to the UK exemption regime (or ‘regulatory perimeter’) for specified third country business (including the Overseas Persons Exclusion (OPE) and the Financial Promotion Order (FPO)).Footnote 53

As noted in Section 5 ahead, the UK has tended to adopt a liberal approach to market access. This liberal stance, despite the prevailing EU/UK political tensions, framed the UK’s approach to EU firms over the withdrawal process. Prior to the UK withdrawal, the FCA adopted a ‘temporary permissions regime’ (TPR), designed to ensure that EU firms operating in the UK through passport arrangements could continue to operate in the UK while they sought full UK authorization. The TPR was, however, only available to firms who sought to operate in the UK long term and so were committed to full authorization. EU firms could, accordingly, be asked to stop undertaking new business, or be removed from the TPR, if they missed their ‘landing slot’ for full authorization,Footnote 54 did not intend to apply for full authorization,Footnote 55 or if their authorization was refused by the FCA.Footnote 56 The TPR (which was used by some 1,500 firms) was to close in December 2023. Alongside, the similar ‘temporary marketing permissions regime’ (TMPR) facilitated passporting funds in operating in the UK post Brexit under temporary authorizations, pending full authorization. Originally due to close in 2021, it will now apply until the end of December 2025 (in tandem, a new regime is being constructed to support the equivalence of third country funds, as noted below).Footnote 57

In an associated initiative, the FCA set out its approach to the authorization of third country firms, given the significant increase in such authorizations following the UK withdrawal (the majority of third country firms operating in the UK are EU/EEA firms). Its 2021 ‘Approach to International Firms’ did not propose reforms, given the FCA’s view that its approach was ‘appropriate and proportionate’, but, in light of the scale of the new authorizations in progress, it set out the FCA’s approach, including for third country branches.Footnote 58 A commitment to openness and competitiveness is clear. The FCA emphasized the important contribution made by international firms, its commitment to maintaining ‘open and vibrant’ markets in the UK, the role played by such firms in supporting the smooth and efficient functioning of UK wholesale markets, and that it would authorize firms where the relevant requirements were met and firms had good risk mitigation in place.Footnote 59 This is not to say that the FCA applies a light-touch approach. The authorization process, undertaken under the Financial Services and Markets Act and FCA rules, operates on a case-by-case basis, with each third country firm considered on its merits. Specific requirements govern the third country branch process, given the potential risks of harm,Footnote 60 including that the FCA may decide that risk mitigation demands that the third country firm’s business be conducted through a UK subsidiary.Footnote 61

The UK has also, and by sharp contrast with the EU, adopted (through HM Treasury) a series of equivalence decisions as regards EU regulation.Footnote 62 For example, while the UK decided that UK prospectuses must follow UK International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) (and not EU-endorsed IFRS), EU IFRS were declared equivalent for the purposes of the use in the UK of EU prospectus and ongoing issuer disclosures. These equivalence decisions, adopted before the end of the transition period to facilitate EU-based business, while operationally important, also suggest an intention to nudge the EU towards reciprocity.Footnote 63

The UK equivalence/access regime is also under review more generally, and is tilting towards an ever more liberal and deferential approach, as noted ahead.

4.2 The Emerging Regime: Prospectuses

The UK third country prospectus regime is currently based on the on-shored 2017 Prospectus Regulation and so follows the EU’s approach.Footnote 64 In its initial post-Brexit review of the regime (2021),Footnote 65 HM Treasury noted that the Regulation’s third country regimes were rarely used, as both routes (where the third country prospectus is based on the Regulation and is approved by the FCA (Prospectus Regulation Article 28: ‘rarely used’); and where the third country prospectus is based on third country rules deemed to be equivalent by the FCA and is approved by the FCA (Prospectus Regulation Article 29: ‘never used’)) required an FCA review of the prospectus, regardless of whether it had been previously reviewed by the home regulator, and so were cumbersome.Footnote 66 HM Treasury also noted that the Article 29 equivalence route was narrowly drawn, being cast entirely in terms of equivalence with the Regulation and not referencing equivalence as regards well-established international standards. In practice, however, the restrictive approach adopted did not have a material impact. Third country issuers in the UK tend not to be subject to the prospectus regime in that they typically use the exemptions available under the regime for wholesale market offers (particularly for offers to ‘qualified investors’). Nonetheless, the review argued that a more liberal regime could encourage retail offers by third country issuers, and so afford wider investment and diversification opportunities to retail investors.

Three review options were canvassed: retention of the status quo and so of the requirement for an FCA-approved third country prospectus; a prohibition on all third country prospectuses (and so removal of the equivalence route); and the use of ‘regulatory deference.’ Under this latter option, the UK would allow a third country offering to take place in the UK market, on the basis of a prospectus approved by the third county authority, and FCA approval would not be required. Investor protection risks would be considered on a ‘holistic basis’ through a general review of the third country’s approach to investor protection, including as regards ongoing issuer disclosures. This high-level, equivalence-light review would be supported by FCA back-stop powers to close an offer to the public where it was detrimental to the interests of investors in the UK. This deference-based approach has resonances with the ‘substitute compliance’ model trialed by the US SEC immediately prior to the financial crisis but which lapsed following the change in market and regulatory conditions.Footnote 67 It is also similar, in its deference to home regulation, to the bilateral US/Canada and Australia/New Zealand mutual recognition regimes,Footnote 68 although it has a significantly wider reach, not being restricted to specific bilateral arrangements. Over the review, the regulatory deference option prevailed, without significant contestation. The new deference-based regime will apply to securities listed on certain designated overseas markets (and thereby enrol additional protections, including as regards the admission requirements and ongoing disclosures that apply to listed issuers). The FCA will not review the third country prospectus once the jurisdiction has met high-level equivalence-like requirements regarding its approach to investor protection,Footnote 69 but will be empowered with exceptional intervention powers.

This reform to the third country prospectus regime is significant on several grounds. It represents a strong articulation of regulatory deference and a pivot away from the more formal, line-item regulatory equivalence associated with the EU regime. It applies in a global/multilateral setting (by contrast with the similar US/Canada and Australia/New Zealand regimes). It is supported by the gatekeeper function of trading venues in that the offer must be admitted to a designated overseas trading venue (it is not yet clear whether specific equivalence requirements would govern this designation), but, unlike other similar models (chiefly the US/Canada arrangement), it does not, as yet, appear to be restricted to secondary offers. Accordingly, and while the operational detail of the system is awaited, it represents a clear statement of intent as to the openness of the UK financial market, as well as a privileging of investor access to investments and diversification opportunities over more formal, host-based, investor protections.

4.3 The Emerging Regime: Investment Funds

Similar reforms have already been adopted for investment funds. The new overseas funds regime (OFR) contains two outcomes-based regimes for specified investment funds (retail investment funds, and money market funds (MMFs)).Footnote 70 Like the proposed prospectus regime, the OFR is not based on line-item equivalence, but on HM Treasury’s overall view of the home country’s regulatory regime. It accordingly reflects a governing assumption that different approaches to regulation can achieve the same regulatory objective, and that exactly similar regulation is not necessary to support market access.Footnote 71 As well as being concerned to support competitiveness, the regime is designed to ensure that investors, and in particular retail investors, have a wide choice of funds, given that many funds (including exchange-traded funds) are domiciled outside the UK.Footnote 72

Taking the retail investment fund example, once an equivalence determination is in place, the relevant fund must be ‘recognized’ by the FCA; recognition then allows the marketing of the fund to the retail market in the UK. The FCA will, however, rely on self-certification by the fund that it is eligible for recognition.Footnote 73 The equivalence assessment which is the gateway to fund recognition is based on the fund’s home country providing at least equivalent protection on an outcomes basis, as compared to UK regulation, and on adequate supervisory cooperation arrangements being in place with the home regulator. As with the prospectus regime, exceptional powers are provided for: HM Treasury can impose specific conditions on certain categories of retail funds, as part of the equivalence process. A distinct equivalence regime applies to MMFs, based on ensuring that the regulatory regime of the home country has equivalent effect to the UK Money Market Fund Regulation (which takes the form of the ‘retained’ 2017 EU Money Market Fund Regulation). A distinct recognition process applies, depending on whether the fund is to be recognized under the retail regime or as a wholesale market fund.

The equivalence assessment and the related fund recognition processes are underway, with the FCA estimating that it will take two years or so to process the 8,000 funds eligible for treatment under the OFR.Footnote 74

4.4 The Emerging Regime: Overall Design

The UK third country regime is also being reviewed more generally, including as regards, inter alia, the exemptions for specified third country business from UK regulation, such as the previously noted OPE regime, as well as certain sector-specific equivalence arrangements.

This review has been prompted by the UK withdrawal from the EU and the related ‘opportunity to look at [the] overseas framework, and the regimes within it, to ensure that they continue to work effectively and support UK consumers, firms, and markets’ and as part of the process of considering ‘how we best move forward as an independent nation and as a global centre for financial services’.Footnote 75 It is focusing on the overseas ‘regulatory perimeter’ (which sets the boundary for when financial market business is within and without UK regulation) and on its resilience in light of the UK withdrawal. While large-scale deregulation is unlikely given the need to secure financial stability and investor protection (a theme which recurs across the FCA’s related 2021 ‘approach document’), the review has a tilt towards liberalization and facilitation which chimes with the current privileging of competitiveness in UK financial regulation policy.Footnote 76

Some indication of the potential direction of travel can be drawn from the emerging approach to the crypto-asset market, although caution is needed as this market segment is idiosyncratic, in particular as it sits outside the ‘financial instruments’ perimeter that sets UK financial regulation and also as it forms a key element of the UK’s post-Brexit strategy for financial services. Nonetheless, current indications suggest a liberal approach. Notably, and by contrast with the new EU MiCAR regime,Footnote 77 the UK regime is likely to contain equivalence arrangements to facilitate international business.Footnote 78

5 The Implications

What, if any, conclusions can be drawn from how the UK third country regime is evolving? Any conclusions must be tentative given the dynamic context and as the reforms have a way to go. But some modest observations can be hazarded and, given the international setting of these reforms, within three concentric spheres—the UK, the EU, and global financial markets—albeit with diminishing levels of certainty in each case.

As regards the UK, the reforms are emerging from a period of disruption, including to the UK’s position as a leading global financial centre.Footnote 79 They do not, however, represent first-order, normative change to the third country regime but rather a refinement, if a significant one, of a longstanding approach.Footnote 80 Historically, the UK, reflecting its facilitative, ‘market-making’ approach to financial markets,Footnote 81 has tilted towards a permissive approach to third country access and it adopted this posture, as an EU Member State, in related negotiations on the EU equivalence regime.Footnote 82 Relatedly, securing the competitiveness of the UK financial market has long been a priority of UK financial regulatory policy. This is well illustrated by the 2006 reforms to the regulation of trading venues. Amidst concern at the time that the London Stock Exchange could be acquired by a US exchange, and so become subject to onerous US regulatory requirements, the 2006 Investment Exchanges and Clearing Houses Act, enacted at speed, empowered the then Financial Services Authority (now the FCA) to veto any adoption by a UK exchange of ‘excessive’ rules, not required under UK law and not justified as pursuing a reasonable regulatory objective, or disproportionate to the end sought.Footnote 83 While an idiosyncratic reaction to the deep political concern at the time, it remains in force, and provides a useful example of the longstanding concern of the UK to ensure its international competitiveness through regulation.

Nonetheless, the current reforms appear to engage a materially more liberal approach than that previously adopted, given the extent to which they have embraced deference as a design principle. They accordingly suggest that the UK does not seek to deploy ‘bonding’ by third country actors to its rules as a means for securing competitiveness.Footnote 84 The articulation in practice of deference, however, in the new reforms, suggests a more nuanced reading of the UK’s approach. The more liberal approach that can currently be identified is limited to the retail/MMF fund and the prospectus sectors. With the exception of MMFs, these are market segments not prone to financial stability risks and so more conducive to liberal treatment. Further, the funds regime is, in practice, directed to EU fundsFootnote 85 and, accordingly, the UK regime is, in practice, deferring to the sophisticated and mature EU ‘UCITS’ regime (a global benchmark for high-quality fund regulation) and MMF regime (a highly detailed, and frequently refined system).Footnote 86 And, as regards prospectuses, there is a strong logic to using prospectus regulation as a test bed for deference, given the relatively sophisticated state of harmonization internationallyFootnote 87 and the successful examples of prospectus mutual recognition already in place (albeit on a bilateral basis).Footnote 88

Whether or not this approach endures and/or is extended is hard to predict. The UK’s incentives to liberalize access in order to deepen its market will, however, likely remain strong given the probability of ongoing frictions to EU access. The EU’s incentives to secure competitive advantage over the UK, not least to progress the CMU agenda, are significant and so caution against predictions of speedy EU engagement with the equivalence process for the UK, particularly given the UK’s current deregulatory turn.Footnote 89 Further, the UK rulebook will meet a more stringent EU equivalence process than that in place at the time of the Brexit referendum in 2016. The EU equivalence regime, particularly since a swathe of legislative reforms in 2019, is becoming increasingly prescriptive as regards the extent of the alignment required, as well as more contingent and less deferential.Footnote 90 It is also not expanding significantly and is, thereby, excluding activity of direct relevance to the UK market.Footnote 91 Alongside, the Commission has shown an appetite for withdrawing equivalence decisionsFootnote 92 while, at the gatekeeper level, ESMA has been similarly robust.Footnote 93

Ultimately, while the observation that the EU will act in its strategic interests is a trivial one, the reality is not, as the differential treatment of two forms of UK market infrastructure, CCPs and trading venues, as regards equivalence, underlines. The adoption by the Commission of a temporary equivalence decision for UK CCP regulation (after a series of extensions, this decision applies until 2025)Footnote 94 was a force majeure response to financial stability risks,Footnote 95 given the EU’s strategic dependence on UK clearing for euro-denominated financial derivatives.Footnote 96 The adoption of this decision was accompanied by an acute EU political and policy focus on the adoption of measures that would secure EU oversight over UK clearing activity in the EU (these measures have also transformed the CCP third country regime generally),Footnote 97 and to promote an autonomous EU clearing capacity which would remove the need for the UK equivalence accommodation.Footnote 98 A sharply different approach was taken with the equivalence of UK trading venues. Notwithstanding that the absence of an equivalence decision could have generated market disruption on the UK’s withdrawal, not least given the impact of the MiFIR Share Trading ObligationFootnote 99 (although, in the end, the absence did not), the Commission did not adopt a temporary equivalence decision. The contrast in interests appears clear: the CCP temporary equivalence decision was taken to secure EU financial stability; the trading venue equivalence decision was not taken given lower financial stability risks and, impliedly, the prospect of a repatriation of trading to the EU.

Given, therefore, the likely persistence of legal frictions to its access to the EU financial market, the UK’s incentives to adopt a liberal approach to access to its market, in order to strengthen competitiveness and so market liquidity and efficiency, can be expected to remain strong in the short term. This is all the more the case given Brexit-related changes to the organization of global markets.Footnote 100 But how the UK’s third country arrangements will evolve in the medium to long term can be expected to be shaped by three forces in particular: market conditions; how the UK regulators deploy their (new) powers and manage any conflicts between their investor protection/financial stability and competitiveness objectives; and prevailing political conditions, particularly as regards UK/EU relations. While modest,Footnote 101 this is not a trivial observation, particularly as regards political dynamics. Politics always matter in international financial relations,Footnote 102 as witnessed by the failure of the UK financial services industry to get traction on the UK negotiating position until the later stages of the withdrawal process, which failure can be associated with political attention being elsewhere.Footnote 103 Hitherto, however, UK and EU third country arrangements (UK arrangements being up to now mainly based on the EU regime) have, with some flashpoints, been largely a function of technocratic regulator-regulator engagement, reflecting also the post-financial-crisis development of international financial market governance and the increasing influence of technocracy.Footnote 104 Since the Brexit referendum, however, these arrangements have become heavily freighted with UK/EU political interests and they have relatedly become a proxy for wider political contestation as both parties have re-set their political and trading relationships.Footnote 105 Accordingly, the setting for UK third country access requirements may change as the UK/EU political environment evolves. The operational management of the UK third country regime for the UK financial market is primarily in the hands of the FCA, and so is largely depoliticized, but it remains dependent in many places on a gateway equivalence determination being made by HM Treasury—and the EU example shows how such gateways can be blocked. Some signs augur well. The June 2023 adoption of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for EU/UK financial services cooperation,Footnote 106 previously committed to in the TCA,Footnote 107 followed a period of stalemate associated with the political tensions generated by the UK government threatening to suspend the Withdrawal Agreement’s Northern Ireland Protocol.Footnote 108 The normalization of political relations in February 2023 with the adoption of the ‘Windsor Framework’Footnote 109 unlocked the MoU.Footnote 110 Nonetheless, the episode stands as a reminder of the acute importance of live political conditions to the arcana of financial market access.

As regards the EU sphere, as previously noted, a decisive tilt towards a more restrictive, less deferential approach to third country access can be observed in the EU over the period since the Brexit referendum, a development which is hard to disassociate from Brexit effects.Footnote 111 Certainly, in the application of the EU’s equivalence regime to the UK, there is, so far, little evidence of EU reciprocity as regards the UK’s facilitative approach to the EU. Alongside, the EU’s ‘open strategic autonomy’ priority,Footnote 112 while so far primarily being articulated in relation to the imperative to develop an EU clearing capacity for certain euro-denominated financial derivatives,Footnote 113 cautions against predictions of a significant change in direction, particularly in the contested area of clearing. The recent shift in EU/UK political dynamics may, however, lead to a more facilitative approach, which may be further supported if discussions become more technocratic and so somewhat depoliticized.Footnote 114 The MoU represents a key step in this regard.Footnote 115 Technocratic engagement may also intensify given the prevailing uncertainty as to how changing global financial market risks, notably as to non-bank financial intermediation,Footnote 116 are to be managed, and so may moderate political interests.Footnote 117

Finally, as regards international financial market governance, there is little evidence of a setting conducive to the wider ‘up-loading’ of the UK’s evolving approach.Footnote 118 It remains to be seen how the UK’s capacity to influence the international standard-setters will change now that it is operating outside the EU. And more generally, while the major international standard-setter for financial markets, IOSCO, is reporting on increasing reliance internationally on deference to manage access, regulatory and market fragmentation remain significant.Footnote 119 Further, the regulatory uncertainties associated with how to contain the risks of the ongoing restructuring of financial markets as non-bank financial intermediation continues to grow and monetary policy remains dynamic, suggest that appetite for a more pervasive reliance on deference, certainly in sectors of systemic significance, may remain limited. The EU’s more restrictive approach, while a function of EU specificities, might better represent future developments.