Abstract
Due to climate change, commercial vessels may pass now through Arctic pack ice during summer, when ice beginning to melt. While Arctic ice is melting, there are floating broken-ice pieces, impeding navigation. Complex process of vessels and ice interaction includes analysis of areal stochastic ice loadings, acting on the vessel’s hull. Accurate statistical extrapolation methods need to be utilized, to accurately assess critical bow stresses, for the sake of safe Arctic ship design. Numerical analysis has been done in 2 steps. First, oil-tanker bow areal stress distribution has been simulated, using software ANSYS/LS-DYNA. Second, extreme bow pressures are predicted to assess return levels related to long return periods, using the novel reliability approach. This study is focused on oil-tanker bow stress distribution, taking into consideration in situ Arctic Ocean ice-thickness distribution. Vessel’s route being typically chosen to take advantage of summer thinning ice. In terms of ice-thickness statistics in the Arctic region, the onboard dataset being obviously route biased, but it is accurate in terms of the ice-thickness data, specific to the vessel’s route. This study proposed an accurate yet practical methodology for calculating high bow stresses for oil-tankers, voyaging along certain Arctic routes. Primary goal of this study was to validate novel methodology, making it possible to extract pertinent information regarding vessel hull areal pressure system’s extreme dynamics, from either numerically or experimentally recorded time-histories. Methodology presented in this study provides capability to efficiently, yet accurately predict failure or damage risks for a wide range of nonlinear multidimensional vessel hull pressure systems.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
Data will be available on request from the corresponding author.
References
Akagawa S, Nakazawa N, Sakai M (2000) Ice failure mode predominantly producing peak-ice-load observed in continuous ice load records. In: Proceedings of the 10th international offshore and polar engineering conference, p 613
ANSYS/LS-DYNA theory manual (2016) Release 17.0, ANSYS, Inc
ANSYS/LS-DYNA user's manual (2016). Release 17.0, ANSYS, Inc
ARCDEV Arctic Demonstration Voyage (1998) Final Public Report of the ARCDEV Project. European Commission Under the Transport RTD Programme of the 4th Framework Programme
Balakrishna R, Gaidai O, Wang F, Xing Y, Wang S (2022) A novel design approach for estimation of extreme load responses of a 10-MW floating semi-submersible type wind turbine. Ocean Eng. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.112007
Canadian Ice Service (2023) http://www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/. Accessed 22 Jan 2023
Dunwoody AB (1991) Non-simultaneous ice failure. A report to Amoco Production, Tulsa
Ehlers S, Kujala P (2013) Cost optimization for ice-loaded structures. In: Soares G, Romanoff (eds) Analysis and design of marine structures. Taylor & Francis Group, London, pp 111–118
Ehlers S, Erceg B, Jordaan IJ, Taylor R (2015) Structural analysis under ice loads for ships operating in Arctic waters. In: Proceedings of MARTECH 2014, 2nd international conference on maritime technology and engineering, Lisbon, 15–17 October 2014
Erceg B, Taylor R, Ehlers S, Leira BJ (2014) A response comparison of a stiffened panel subjected to rulebased and measured ice loads. In: Proceeding of the 33rd international conference on ocean, offshore and arctic engineering, volume 10: polar and arctic science and technology, San Francisco, June 8–13
Frederking RMW (2004) Ice pressure variations during indentation. In: Proceedings of the 17th IAHR international symposium on ice, vol 2, p 307
Frederking R, Jordaan I, McCallum J (1990) Field tests of ice indentation at medium scale: Hobson's Choice ice island, 1989. In: Proceedings 10th international association for hydraulic research (IAHR) ice symposium, vol. II. Espoo
Frederking RMW, Jordaan IJ, McCallum JS (1990) Field tests of ice indentation at medium scale: Hobson’s Choice ice island 1989. In: Proceedings of 10th international symposium on ice, IAHR, Espoo, vol 2, pp 931–944
Gaidai O, Xing Y (2022) Novel reliability method validation for offshore structural dynamic response. Ocean Eng. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.113016
Gaidai O, Fu S, Xing Y (2022a) Novel reliability method for multidimensional nonlinear dynamic systems. Mar Struct. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marstruc.2022.103278
Gaidai O, Wang F, Wu Y, Xing Y, Medina A, Wang J (2022b) Offshore renewable energy site correlated wind-wave statistics. Probab Eng Mech. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.probengmech.2022.103207
Gaidai O, Wang K, Wang F, Xing Y, Yan P (2022c) Cargo ship aft panel stresses prediction by deconvolution. Mar Struct. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marstruc.2022.103359
Gaidai O, Wu Y, Yegorov I, Alevras P, Wang J, Yurchenko D (2022d) Improving performance of a nonlinear absorber applied to a variable length pendulum using surrogate optimization. J. of Vibration and Control 30:156–168
Gaidai O, Xing Y, Balakrishna R (2022e) Improving extreme response prediction of a subsea shuttle tanker hovering in ocean current using an alternative highly correlated response signal. Results Eng. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2022.100593
Gaidai O, Xu J, Hu Q, Xing Y, Zhang F (2022) Offshore tethered platform springing response statistics. Sci Rep. www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-25806-x
Gaidai O, Xu J, Xing Y, Hu Q, Storhaug G, Xu X, Sun J (2022g) Cargo vessel coupled deck panel stresses reliability study. Ocean Eng 268:113318. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.113318
Gaidai O, Yan P, Xing Y (2022h) A novel method for prediction of extreme wind speeds across parts of Southern Norway. Front Environ Sci 10. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.997216
Gaidai O, Yan P, Xing Y (2022i) Prediction of extreme cargo ship panel stresses by using deconvolution. Front Mech Eng. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmech.2022.992177
Gaidai O, Hu Q, Xu J, Wang F, Cao Y (2023a) Carbon storage tanker lifetime assessment. Glob Chall. https://doi.org/10.1002/gch2.202300011
Gaidai O, Wang F, Xing Y, Balakrishna R (2023b) Novel reliability method validation for floating wind turbines. Adv Energy Sustain Res. https://doi.org/10.1002/aesr.202200177
Gaidai O, Cao Y, Loginov S (2023c) Global cardiovascular diseases death rate prediction. Curr Probl Cardiol. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cpcardiol.2023.101622
Gaidai O, Cao Y, Xing Y, Balakrishna R (2023d) Extreme springing response statistics of a tethered platform by deconvolution. Int J Nav Architect Ocean Eng. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijnaoe.2023.100515
Gaidai O, Cao Y, Xing Y, Wang J (2023e) Piezoelectric energy harvester response statistics. Micromachines 14(2):271. https://doi.org/10.3390/mi14020271
Gaidai O, Cao Y, Xu X, Xing Y (2023f) Offloading operation bivariate extreme response statistics for FPSO vessel. Sci Rep. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-31533-8
Gaidai O, Wang F, Yakimov V, Sun J, Balakrishna R (2023g) Lifetime assessment for riser systems. GRN Tech Res Sustain. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44173-023-00013-7
Gaidai O, Xing Y, Balakrishna R, Xu J (2023h) Improving extreme offshore wind speed prediction by using deconvolution. Heliyon. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e13533
Gaidai O, Xing Y, Xu J, Balakrishna R (2023i) Gaidai-Xing reliability method validation for 10-MW floating wind turbines. Sci Rep. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-33699-7
Gaidai O, Xing Y, Xu J, Balakrishna R (2023j) Gaidai-Xing reliability method validation for 10-MW floating wind turbines. Sci Rep. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-33699-7
Gaidai O, Xing Y, Xu X (2023k) Novel methods for coupled prediction of extreme wind speeds and wave heights. Sci Rep. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-28136-8
Gaidai O, Xu J, Yakimov V, Wang F (2023l) Analytical and computational modeling for multi-degree of freedom systems: estimating the likelihood of an FOWT structural failure. J Mar Sci Eng 11(6):1237. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11061237
Gaidai O, Xu J, Yakimov V, Wang F (2023m) Liquid carbon storage tanker disaster resilience. Environ Syst Decis. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-023-09922-1
Gaidai O, Xu J, Yan P, Xing Y, Wang K, Liu Z (2023n) Novel methods for reliability study of multi-dimensional non-linear dynamic systems. Sci Rep 13:3817. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30704-x
Gaidai O, Xu X, Xing Y (2023o) Novel deconvolution method for extreme FPSO vessel hawser tensions during offloading operations. Results Eng. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2022.100828
Gaidai O, Yakimov V, Niu Y, Liu Z (2023p) Gaidai-Yakimov reliability method for high-dimensional spatio-temporal biosystems. Biosystems. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biosystems.2023.105073
Gaidai O, Yakimov V, Sun J et al (2023q) Singapore COVID-19 data cross-validation by the Gaidai reliability method. NPJ Viruses. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44298-023-00006-0
Gaidai O, Yakimov V, Wang F, Hu Q, Storhaug G (2023r) Lifetime assessment for container vessels. Appl Ocean Res 139:103708. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apor.2023.103708
Gaidai O, Yakimov V, Wang F, Hu Q, Storhaug G (2023s) Lifetime assessment for container vessels. Appl Ocean Res. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apor.2023.103708
Gaidai O, Yakimov V, Wang F, Zhang F, Balakrishna R (2023t) Floating wind turbines structural details fatigue life assessment. Sci Rep. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-43554-4
Gaidai O, Yan P, Xing Y (2023u) Future world cancer death rate prediction. Sci Rep. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-27547-x
Gaidai O, Yan P, Xing Y, Xu J, Zhang F, Wu Y (2023v) Oil tanker under ice loadings. Sci Rep. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-34606-w
Gaidai O, Yakimov V, Wang F, Zhang F (2023w) Safety design study for energy harvesters. Sustain Energy Res 10:15 . https://doi.org/10.1186/s40807-023-00085-w
Gaidai O, Sheng J, Cao Y, Zhu Y, Loginov S (2024a) Generic COVID-19 epidemic forecast for Estonia by Gaidai multivariate reliability method. Frankl Open 6:100075 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fraope.2024.100075
Gaidai O, Wang F, Cao Y et al (2024b) 4400 TEU cargo ship dynamic analysis by Gaidai reliability method. J Shipp Trd 9:1. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41072-023-00159-4
Gaidai O, Wang F, Sun J (2024c) Energy harvester reliability study by Gaidai reliability method. Clim Resil Sustain. https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.64
Gaidai O, Yakimov V, Hu Q, Loginov S (2024d) Multivariate risks assessment for complex bio-systems by Gaidai reliability method. Syst Soft Comput 6:200074. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sasc.2024.200074
Gaidai O, Yakimov V, Wang F, Sun J, Wang K (2024e) Bivariate reliability analysis for floating wind turbines. Int J Low-Carbon Technol 19:55–64. https://doi.org/10.1093/ijlct/ctad108
Glen IF, Blount H (1984) Measurements of ice impact pressures and loads onboard CCGS Louis S. St. Laurent. In: Proceedings of the 3rd offshore mechanics and arctic engineering symposium, vol III. ASME, New Orleans, pp 246–252
Hahn M, Dankowski H, Ehlers S, Erceg S, Rung T, Huisman M, Sjöblom H, Leira BJ, Chai W (2017) Numerical prediction of ship-ice interaction: a project presentation. In: ASME 2017 36th international conference on ocean, offshore and arctic engineering. Am. Soc. Mech. Eng., vol 8
Huang Y (2010) Model test study of the non-simultaneous failure of ice before wide conical structures. J Cold Regions Sci Tech 63(3):87–96
IACS (2016) Requirements concerning polar class, International association of classification societies, IACS Req. 2006/Rev.2 2016
ISO, International Standards Organization (2010) International Standard ISO 19906, Petroleum and natural gas industries—Arctic offshore structures. First Edition, ISO 19906:2010(E)
ISSC (2022) https://www.issc2022.org/issc-2015-reports/
Johnston ME, Croasdale KR, Jordaan IJ (1998) Localized pressures during ice-structure interaction: relevance to design criteria. Cold Reg Sci Technol 1998(27):105–117
Jones SJ (1997) High strain-rate compression tests on ice. J Phys Chem B 1997(101):6099–6101
Jordaan IJ (2001a) Mechanics of ice–structure interaction. Eng Fract Mech 68(17):1923–1960
Jordaan IJ (2001b) Mechanics of ice-structure interaction. Eng Fract Mech 68:1923–1968
Jordaan IJ, Maes MA, Browne PW, Hermans IP (1993a) Probabilistic analysis of local ice pressures. ASME J Offshore Mech Arct Eng 115:83–89
Jordaan IJ, Maes MA, Brown PW, Hermans IP (1993) Probabilistic analysis of local ice pressures. In: Proceedings, 11th international conference on offshore mechanics and arctic engineering, Calgary, vol II, pp 7–13
Jordaan I, Li C, Sudom D, Stuckey P, Ralph F (2005) Principles for local and global ice design using pressure area relationships. In: POAC 2005, Potsdam, Proceedings, vol 1, pp 375–385
Jordaan IJ, Frederking R, Li C (2006) Mechanics of ice compressive failure, probabilistic averaging and design load estimation. In: IAHR Ice Symposium
Jordaan IJ, Li C, Mackey T, Stuckey P, Sudom D (2007) Ice data analysis and mechanics for design load estimation, Final Report. Prepared for NSERC, C-CORE, Chevron Canada Resources, National Research Council of Canada, Petro-Canada, Husky Energy
Kamio Z, Takawaki T, Matsushita H et al (2000) Medium scale field indentation tests: physical characteristics of first-year sea ice at Notoro Lagoon, Hokkaido. In: Proceedings of the tenth international offshore and polar engineering conference, p 562
Kujala P (1994) On the statistics of ice loads on ship hull in the Baltic. Dissertation. Acta Polytechnica Scandinavia. Me 116. Helsinki, p 98
Kujala P, Arughadhoss S (2012) Statistical analysis of ice crushing pressures on a ship’s hull during hull–ice interaction. Cold Reg Sci Technol 70:1–11
Lee J, Kwon Y, Rim C, Lee T (2016) Characteristics analysis of local ice load signals in ice-covered waters. Int J Nav Architect Ocean Eng 8(1):66–72
Lensu M (2002) Short term prediction of ice-loads experienced by ice going ships. Helsinki University of Technology
Liu Z, Gaidai O, Xing Y, Sun J (2023) Deconvolution approach for floating wind turbines. Energy Sci Eng. https://doi.org/10.1002/ese3.1485
Lu L, Ji S (2018) Ice load on floating structure simulated with dilated polyhedral discrete element method in broken-ice field. J Appl Ocean Res 7(5):53–65
Lu L et al (2014) Modeling walking behavior of pedestrian groups with floor field cellular automaton approach. J Chin Phys B 23(8):088901
Lubbad R, Løset S (2011) A numerical model for real-time simulation of ship–ice interaction. Cold Reg Sci Technol 65(2):111–127
Ni B (2021) Review on the interaction between sea ice and waves/currents. Chin J Theor Appl Mech 53(3):641–654
Ralph F, Jordaan I (2013) Probabilistic methodology for design of arctic ships. In: Proceedings of the 32nd international conference on ocean, offshore and arctic engineering (OMAE)
Richard M, Taylor R (2014) Analysis of high-pressure zone attributes from tactile pressure sensor field data. In: Proceedings of the 33rd international conference on ocean, offshore and arctic engineering, vol 10: polar and arctic science and technology, San Francisco, June 8–13, 2014
Sazidy MS (2015) Devleopment of velocity dependent ice flextural failure model and application to safe speed methodology for polar ships. Memorial University of Newfoundland
Sun J, Gaidai O, Wang F et al (2023a) Gaidai reliability method for fixed offshore structures. J Braz Soc Mech Sci Eng. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40430-023-04607-x
Sun J, Gaidai O, Xing Y, Wang F, Liu Z (2023b) On safe offshore energy exploration in the Gulf of Eilat. Qual Reliab Eng Int. https://doi.org/10.1002/qre.3402
Suyuthi A, Leira BJ, Riska K (2012) Short term extreme statistics of local ice loads on ship hulls. Cold Reg Sci Technol 82(2012):120–143
Suyuthi A, Leira B, Riska K (2014) A generalised probabilistic model of ice load peaks on ship hulls in broken-ice fields. J Cold Reg Sci Technol 97:7–20
Taylor R, Richard M (2014) Development of a probabilistic ice load model based on empirical descriptions of high-pressure zone attributes. In: Proceedings of the 33rd international conference on ocean, offshore and arctic engineering, vol 10: polar and arctic science and technology, San Francisco, June 8–13, 2014
Taylor R, Jordaan I, Li C, Sudom D (2009) Local design pressures for structures in ice: analysis of full-scale data. In: Proceedings of the ASME 2009 28th international conference on ocean, offshore and arctic engineering, May 31–June 5, Honolulu
Tunik A (1994) Route-specific ice-thickness distribution in the Arctic Ocean during a North Pole crossing in August 1990. J Cold Reg Sci Tech 22:205–217
Xu S, Kim E, Haugen S (2021) Review and comparison of existing risk analysis models applied within shipping in ice-covered waters. Saf Sci. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2021.105335
Xu X, Xing Y, Gaidai O, Wang K, Patel K, Dou P, Zhang Z (2022) A novel multi-dimensional reliability approach for floating wind turbines under power production conditions. Front Mar Sci. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.970081
Xu X, Gaidai O, Yakimov V, Xing Y, Wang F (2023) FPSO offloading operational safety study by a multidimensional reliability method. Ocean Eng. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2023.114652
Yakimov V, Gaidai O, Wang F, Wang K (2023a) Arctic naval launch and recovery operations, under ice impact interactions. Appl Eng Sci. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apples.2023.100146
Yakimov V, Gaidai O, Wang F, Wang K (2023b) Arctic naval launch and recovery operations, under ice impact interactions. Appl Eng Sci. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apples.2023.100146
Yulmetov R, Lubbad R, Løset S (2016) Planar multi-body model of iceberg free drift and towing in broken-ice. J Cold Reg Sci Technol 121(2):154–166
Zhang J, Gaidai O, Ji H, Xing Y (2023a) Operational reliability study of ice-loads acting on oil-tanker bow. Heliyon. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e15189
Zhang J, Gaidai O, Ji H, Xing Y (2023b) Operational reliability study of ice loads acting on oil tanker bow. Heliyon. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e15189
Zhao D, Wang J, Zhang X et al (2015) A Cellular-automata occupant evacuation model considering gathering behavior. Int J Mod Phys C 26(8):1550089
Funding
No funding was received.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
All authors contributed equally.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
Authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Gaidai, O., Sheng, J., Cao, Y. et al. Limit hypersurface state of art Gaidai reliability approach for oil tankers Arctic operational safety. J. Ocean Eng. Mar. Energy (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40722-024-00316-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40722-024-00316-2