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Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Balance of Lake Hawassa Catchment

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Abstract

In this study, we assessed the impact of climate change (CC) on the water balance of the Lake Hawassa catchment (a sub-catchment of the Rift Valley basin) in southern Ethiopia. The CMhyd (Climate model data for hydrologic modeling) was used to correct biases in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios under the Hadley Global Environment Model 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) for the 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100). The CC impact analysis performed by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) demonstrated very reliable performance during the calibration (NSE = 0.81, R2 = 0.61) and validation (NSE = 0.85, R2 = 0.88) periods. Projected precipitation (PPT) is expected to increase by 3.4% and 6.9% in the 2050s, and reduce by 1.5% and 0.2% in the 2080s, respectively for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, while, respectively, minimum and maximum temperatures (Tmin and Tmax) are expected to increase by 0.6 °C and 3.2 °C under RCP4.5 and by 1.6 °C and 3.8 °C under RCP8.5. By the end of 2100, the long-term water balance of Lake Hawassa catchment under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 showed PPT increased by 7.1% and reduced by 11.6%, surface runoff increased by 8.8% and reduced by 16.2%, lateral discharge reduced by 40.5% and 49.8%, water yield reduced by 19% and 39.4%, evapotranspiration increased by 21.1% and 19.2%, and potential evapotranspiration increased by 76.1% and 76.7% respectively. These results indicate that the water balance of the catchment will be altered by CC. Therefore, constantly monitored and updated sustainable water resource management and development is required.

Highlights

  • Climate change scenarios were reviewed and bias correction was carried out for HadGEM2-ES Climate Model data

  • Future precipitation and temperature were projected and their trend was assessed

  • SWAT model was calibrated and validated for the years 1991–2002

  • The projected change in temperature and rainfall impacts the hydrologic responses

  • Impact of future climate changes on seasonal and annual water balance was quantified

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Data Availability

The DEM data is freely available at http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov and the dynamically downscaled daily-based RCPs climate data for the historical and future periods are freely available from http://cordexesg.dmi.dk/esgf-web-fe/ CORDEX Africa database.

Abbreviations

AR5:

Fifth Assessment Report

CC:

Climate Change

CMhyd:

Climate Model Data for Hydrologic Modeling

CN:

Curve Number

CORDEX:

Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment

DEM:

Digital Elevation Map

ET:

Evapotranspiration

FAO:

Food and Agricultural Organization

GCM:

Global Climate Model

GIS:

Geographic Information System

HadCM3:

Hadley Centre Coupled Model3

HadGEM2-ES:

Hadley Global Environment Model2-Earth System

HRU:

Hydrologic Response Unit

IPCC:

Inter governmental Panel on Climate change

LuLc:

Land use lands cover change

MAE:

Mean Absolute Error

MoWIE:

Ministry of Water and Irrigation Engineering

NMA:

National Meteorological agency

NSE:

Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency

PET:

Potential Evapotranspiration

PPT:

Precipitation

R2 :

Coefficient of determination

RMA:

Regional Meteorological Agency

RCM:

Regional Climate Model

RCP:

Representative Concentration Pathway

RE:

Relative Error

RMSE:

Root Mean Square Error

SUFI2:

Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Version 2

SCS:

Soil Conservation System

SWAT:

Soil and Water Assessment Tool

SWAT CUP:

Soil and water assessment tool Calibration and Uncertainty program

Tmin&Tmax:

Minimum and Maximum Temperature

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Acknowledgements

We would like to acknowledge the Regional Meteorological Agency (RMA) of Hawassa and the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia for providing the hydrological and meteorological data. And, our thanks go to the Ministry of Water Irrigation and Electricity (MoWIE) for providing streamflow, LuLc, and Soil data.

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  1. Department of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, College of Engineering and Technology, Dilla University, SNNPR, PO. Box 419, Dilla, Ethiopia

    Beyene Akirso Alehu & Seble Gizachew Bitana

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  1. Beyene Akirso Alehu
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We equally developed, analyzed, interpreted, and adjusted each task from the very beginning to the end. And we read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Beyene Akirso Alehu or Seble Gizachew Bitana.

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Alehu, B.A., Bitana, S.G. Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Balance of Lake Hawassa Catchment. Environ. Process. 10, 14 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40710-023-00626-x

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