In a total of 1224 renal transplants, 440 patients experienced at least one episode of AKI giving an incidence of AKI of 35.4% over the study period (Table 1). In total there were 937 episodes of AKI with roughly half (224) of the patients who experienced an AKI episode experiencing more than one AKI episode. For patients with multiple episodes, mean number of episodes was 3.2 ± 2.1. The majority (64.7%) of episodes were classified as AKI stage 1 at presentation, with 7.3% AKI stage 2 and 28% AKI stage 3.
Table 1 Characteristics of transplant patients who had AKI vs. patients who had no AKI The mean age of the AKI cohort of transplant recipients was no different to those with no AKI (47.2 ± 15.4 vs. 46.2 ± 14.7 yrs). There was no difference in gender distribution between the AKI and non-AKI patients (38.2% were female in the AKI vs. 35.3% in the non-AKI group, p = 0.3). Similarly, the average time since transplant to inclusion in the study was also no different between the AKI and non-AKI cohort (1942 ± 2350 vs. 1998 ± 2380 days). In contrast, the mean baseline serum creatinine was significantly higher in the AKI cohort compared to the non-AKI cohort (173.0 ± 127.2 vs. 128.1 ± 51.2 μmol/l). The aetiologies of underlying end-stage renal disease of transplant patients are shown in Table 1. Diabetic nephropathy as a primary renal diagnosis was more common in the AKI cohort. There were no differences in the distribution of all other primary diagnoses.
Within the AKI cohort there were significantly more patients receiving a transplant from a donor after cardiac death (26.4% vs. 21.4%, p < 0.05) and less from live related donation (23.6% vs. 33.7%, p < 0.001) compared to the non-AKI cohort.
The clinical locations of the blood test resulting in the incident AKI alert are shown in Fig. 1. Roughly half of the AKI episodes were associated with an alert related to a nephrology request, the majority of which were a result of a blood test requested in a transplant out-patient setting. Of the remaining AKI episodes, the majority of alerts were reported following requests from general medical in-patients (7.9%), Accident and Emergency (7.9%), primary care (6.3%) and general medical out patients (6.1%).
Natural history of AKI in renal transplant recipients (Table 2)
Following an AKI episode, 30-day mortality was 19.8% and overall mortality over the study period was 34.8%. Baseline serum creatinine was significantly higher in the cohort of AKI patients who died compared to the surviving patients (210.29 ± 173.1 vs. 153.5 ± 89.2 μmol/l, p = 0.0002). More than one episode of AKI was associated with higher overall patient mortality compared with patients with only one episode (41.1% vs. 28.2%, RR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1–1.9, p = 0.005). In those patients who survived an episode of AKI and had follow-up biochemistry data available, recovery of renal function occurred in 75% of episodes. In the surviving group severity of AKI was a determinant of recovery of renal function, which was lower in patients with incident stage 2 or 3 AKI alerts compared with stage 1 (56.8% vs. 70.5%, P < 0.001). There was no association between non-recovery of renal function and overall patient mortality, with a 29% mortality rate for those that recovered compared to 31.6% for those that did not. There was also no association between non-recovery and repeated AKI episodes, with 52.3% of patients that recovered their index episode experiencing at least one further episode, compared to 60.7% of those that did not recover their renal function in their index episode.
Table 2 Natural history of AKI in Renal Transplantation Multivariate Binary Logistic Regression showed that a lower baseline SCr (B = − 0.01, p < 0.001) and age at AKI (B = − 0.07, p < 0.001) were associated with an increased likelihood of overall patient survival, and patients with multiple AKI episodes were less likely to survive compared to those who had a single episode (OR = 0.47, 95% CI 0.30–0.75, p < 0.001). Similarly, a lower baseline SCr (B = − 0.01, p < 0.001) and age at AKI (B = − 0.07, p < 0.015) were also associated with an increased likelihood of overall patient and graft survival. Patients with AKI stage 3 were less likely to survive with a functioning graft compared to those with AKI stage 1 (OR = 0.46, 95% CI 0.25–0.86, p = 0.014), as was the case with patients with multiple AKI episodes compared to patients with a single episode (OR = 0.39, 95% CI 0.25–0.61, p < 0.001). Furthermore, a lower baseline SCr (B = − 0.01, p = 0.048) lower age at AKI (B = − 0.05, p = 0.011), and higher age at transplant (B = 0.05, p = 0.011) were associated with an increased likelihood of overall renal recovery from AKI, and patients with multiple AKI episodes were far less likely to recover compared to those who had a single episode (OR = 0.28, 95% CI 0.17–0.47, p < 0.001).
Our previous work in non-transplant associated AKI has demonstrated that a significant proportion of patients highlighted with an AKI alert do not have further monitoring of renal function. In this transplant recipient cohort 96.1% of the AKI episodes were associated with a repeat measure of renal function within 7 days of the alert, with a mean time to repeat of 3.8 ± 5.9 days. It should be noted however that in 37 episodes no repeat measure of renal function was requested within 7 days of the incident alert.
The clinical diagnosis associated with each AKI episode is shown in Table 3. Rejection was associated with only 6.2% of all episodes. This cohort was significantly younger than the non-rejection group, and had a higher proportion of AKI stage 3 at presentation. In the non-rejection cohort, the predominantly associated clinical diagnosis was sepsis, with urinary tract and respiratory infection accounting for the majority of cases. There were no differences in mortality between the rejection- and non-rejection-associated AKI episodes. Recovery of renal function was however significantly worse following rejection-associated AKI, reflecting the higher proportion of stage 3 AKI at presentation.
Table 3 Clinical course by clinical diagnosis associated with AKI episode Comparison of hospital- and community-acquired (HA)/(CA) transplant-associated AKI
CA-AKI accounted for 57.4% of all episodes (n = 538), of which hospitalisation following the alert occurred in only 37 episodes. Transplant out-patients’ requests accounted for 61.3% of CA-AKI. The other major sources of CA-AKI alerts were Accident and Emergency (13.9%), Primary care (11.0%) and medical out-patients (10.6%).
HA-AKI accounted for 29.1% (273) of all transplant-associated AKI. For hospital-acquired AKI, the largest single cohort was reported following a blood test requested from the renal transplant in-patient ward (49.8%), followed by general medical in-patients (27.1%), cardiology in-patients (13.9%), general surgery in-patients (13.5%), and intensive treatment unit (ITU) (11.7%). The remaining 13.4% (126) of alerts were generated in an in-patient setting, but as no results were available for the previous 7 days it was not possible to confidently classify these as either CA- or HA-AKI.
The proportion of incident AKI alerts reported as AKI stage 3 was significantly higher in CA-AKI compared to HA-AKI (Table 2). Conversely the proportion of AKI stage 1 was lower in the CA-AKI group compared to HA-AKI. Compared to CA-AKI, 30-day mortality was significantly higher for patients following HA-AKI (HA-AKI: 16.8% vs. CA-AKI: 4.8%, p = 0.001). In contrast to mortality outcomes, for the surviving patients recovery of renal function at 30-days was significantly better following HA-AKI (HA-AKI; 81.8% vs. CA-AKI: 70.2%, p < 0.001). Within the CA-AKI cohort the mean time to repeat measurement was 5.5 ± 7.1 days; following 33 AKI episodes there were no repeat measures of renal function within 7 days of the alert. In contrast, in the HA AKI cohort, there were no repeat measures of renal function within 7 days following only 3 AKI episodes, and the average time to repeat was significantly shorter than in CA-AKI (1.4 ± 1.9 days, p < 0.001).
Influence of AKI on transplant patient outcomes (Table 4)
Mortality censored at 4 years was significantly higher in the AKI cohort compared to those who did not have an AKI episode during the study period (p < 0.0001, Fig. 2a). Overall mortality for the non AKI cohort was 8.4% compared to 34.8% in the AKI group (RR 4.1, 95% CI 3.1–5.3, p < 0.001 compared to AKI cohort).
Table 4 Comparison of outcomes AKI vs No AKI in renal transplantation A comparison of the status of the patients at the end of the study period demonstrated significantly fewer patients alive with a functioning graft in the AKI group. More patients were alive with a non-functioning graft, and a higher proportion of patients had died, either with a functioning graft or with a non-functioning graft, in the AKI group. The association between AKI and graft failure was analysed by Kaplan–Meier estimation. Graft survival (GS), and death censored graft survival (DCGS) censored at 4 years, in the AKI cohort were significantly lower than in the non AKI group (p < 0.0001 for both GS and DCGS, Fig. 2b and c).
For patients who had poststudy renal function data available (i.e. alive with a functioning graft) the pre-study baseline renal function was no different in the AKI group compared to the non-AKI group (133.4 ± 52.0 μmol/l vs. 123.9 ± 17.3 μmol/l). In contrast, post-study serum creatinine was significantly higher in the AKI cohort compared to the non-AKI cohort (167.6 ± 82.4 μmol/l vs. 123.8 ± 50.7 μmol/l, p < 0.001). Similarly, whilst the eGFR was not significantly different at the beginning of the study (50.5 ± 18.1 ml/min for the AKI cohort vs. 53.9 ± 17.3 ml/min for the non-AKI cohort), at the end of the study period those from the AKI cohort had a significantly lower eGFR compared to the non-AKI group (42.3 ± 20.7 ml/min vs. 55.4 ± 20.1 ml/ml, p < 0.001). The percentage of patients with an end of study period renal function which was worse than the starting renal function as defined by a greater than 15% or 5 ml/min deterioration in eGFR, was also higher in the AKI group (57.0% vs. 24.5%, RR 2.3 95% CI 1.9–2.7, p < 0.001). The duration of follow up from the time of transplant was no different between these two groups (3669.6 ± 2701.7 days for the AKI group vs. 3515.7 ± 2780 days for the non-AKI group, p = 0.34).