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Autoregressive model extrapolation using cubic splines for damage progression analysis

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Journal of the Brazilian Society of Mechanical Sciences and Engineering Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The application of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) methods focuses mainly on its initial levels of the hierarchy of damage identification. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new strategy that allows going further, predicting the progression of the damage indices through the extrapolation of Autoregressive (AR) models with one-step-ahead prediction estimated at early-stage damage conditions using piecewise cubic splines. A trending curve capable of predicting the damage progression can be determined, and it allows the extrapolation to future structural conditions based on some assumptions. The data sets of a benchmark involving a three-story building structure are investigated to illustrate the proposed methodology. The extrapolated coefficients in the most severe condition are implemented to identify an extrapolated AR model, and the results are encouraging by adequately reproducing the structure’s future behavior if the damage is initially detected and not repaired immediately.

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Notes

  1. http://www.lanl.gov/projects/national-security-education-center/engineering/ei-software-download/index.php.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the financial support provided by Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development - CNPq (grant numbers 404463/2016-9 and 131297/2017-1), Research Productivity Scholarship PQ (grant numbers 306526/2019-0), São Paulo Research Foundation - FAPESP (grant numbers 15/25676-2, 17/15512-8, 2017/15512-8, 2019/19684-3), Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT), I.P. (grant number UIDMul-ti044632019 - DREAMS), Visiting Professor Fellowship Program 10/2017-PROPG from UNESP, Coordination of Superior Level Staff Improvement - CAPES (grant number 88882.433643/2019-01), the Los Alamos National Laboratory for the data sets provided, and the reviewers and editor for the contributions during the reviewing process. This work was financially supported by: Base Funding - UIDB/04708/2020 and Programmatic Funding - UIDP/04708/2020 of the CONSTRUCT - Instituto de I&D em Estruturas e Construções - funded by national funds through the FCT/MCTES (PIDDAC).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Departamento de Engenharia Mecânica, Ilha Solteira, Faculdade de Engenharia, UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista, São Paulo, Brasil

    Marcus Omori Yano & Samuel da Silva

  2. Departamento de Engenharia Mecânica, Vitória, Centro Tecnológico, UFES - Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, Espírito Santo, Brasil

    Luis G. G. Villani

  3. Faculty of Engineering, Lusófona University, Lisboa, Portugal

    Eloi Figueiredo

  4. Construct, Faculdade de Engenharia, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal

    Eloi Figueiredo

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  1. Marcus Omori Yano
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Correspondence to Marcus Omori Yano.

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Yano, M.O., Villani, L.G.G., da Silva, S. et al. Autoregressive model extrapolation using cubic splines for damage progression analysis. J Braz. Soc. Mech. Sci. Eng. 43, 19 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40430-020-02734-3

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