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A Meteorological–Statistic Model for Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

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Abstract

The problem of wind power forecasting is addressed in this work, considering a combination of a numerical weather prediction model (NWP) and statistical models. Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System is employed in two different areas in Brazil to simulate forecasts of 72 h ahead of the wind speed, at each 10 min. In one of the areas studied, the wind speed is converted into wind power. Different conversion methods are employed and discussed. Kalman filtering techniques are employed to reduce systematic error of the forecasts, both wind and generation. Each 72-h period of the NWP simulations had a computational time of approximately 60–70 min using indicating that the proposed method can be applied in real time for power system operation. The results obtained are very encouraging for further investigation to achieve more accurate wind power researches.

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Fig. 1

Source Adapted from Landberg (1999)

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Source Lima (2016)

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank CAPES Foundation (Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior) for financial supporting.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Copel Geração e Transmissão S.A., Rua Coronel Dulcidio, 800, Curitiba, PR, CEP 80420-170, Brazil

    João Marcos Lima

  2. Universidade Federal do Paraná – PPGERHA, Jardim das Américas, Curitiba, PR, CEP 81531-990, Brazil

    Alexandre K. Guetter

  3. USRA/GESTAR at NASA/GFSC, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, MD, 20771, USA

    Saulo R. Freitas

  4. Divisão de Ciência da Computação (IEC), Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica (ITA), Praça Marechal Eduardo Gomes, 50, São José dos Campos, SP, CEP 12228-900, Brazil

    Jairo Panetta

  5. Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC), Rodovia Dutra, km 39, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, CEP 12630-000, Brazil

    João G. Z. de Mattos

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  1. João Marcos Lima
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  2. Alexandre K. Guetter
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  3. Saulo R. Freitas
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Correspondence to João Marcos Lima.

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Lima, J.M., Guetter, A.K., Freitas, S.R. et al. A Meteorological–Statistic Model for Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting. J Control Autom Electr Syst 28, 679–691 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40313-017-0329-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40313-017-0329-8

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