Abstract
Properties of geological materials vary significantly both spatially and temporally. Geotechnical design and practice are influenced by variations in properties and proper consideration of loads on geotechnical systems, and resistance provided by the geological systems represented by engineering properties, which are random variables/fields, is necessary. Significant developments exist in the consideration of the variability of loads and resistances, and the reliability-based design of geotechnical systems has developed very well. The objective of the paper is to present some work done by the author and his students in this area, with reference to foundations, retaining walls, slopes, dams, landslides, pavements, buried pipes, tunnels, landfill engineering, and contaminant transport in geological media. It is emphasized that probabilistic considerations play a significant role in understanding the role of uncertainties in design and provide a rational and risk-informed approach for the analysis and design of geotechnical and environmental systems. A few perceived benefits of rational design and analysis are demonstrated in this paper.
References
Christian JT, Ladd CC, Baecher GB (1994) Reliability applied to slope stability analysis. J Geotech Eng 120(12):2180–2207. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9410(1994)120:12(2180)
Vanmarcke EH (1977) Probabilistic modeling of soil profiles. J Geotech Eng 103(11):1227–1246. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJGEB6.0000517
Fenton GA, Griffiths DV (1996) Statistics of free surface flow through a stochastic earth dam. J Geotech Eng 122(6):427–436
Jaksa M, Goldsworthy J, Fenton G, Kaggwa G, Griffiths D, Kuo Y, Poulos H (2005) Towards reliable and effective site investigations. Geotechnique 55(2):109–121
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) (1997) Engineering and design: Introduction to probability and reliability methods for use in geotechnical engineering. ETL Rep. No. 1110-2-547. Dept. of the Army, Washington, DC
ISO (2015) International Organization for Standardization. ISO 2394:2015 General principles on reliability for structures. ISO/TC 98/SC2. 4th ed
ISSMGE (International Society of Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering) (2021) TC304 Engineering practice of risk assessment & management. Accessed 6 Dec 2021. http://140.112.12.21/issmge/tc304.htm
Phoon KK (2021) What geotechnical engineers want to know about reliability. ASCE-ASME J Risk Uncertainty Eng Syst Part A: Civ Eng. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.RUENG-1002
Haldar A, Mahadevan S (2000) Probability, reliability and statistical methods in engineering design. Wiley, New York
Baecher GB, Christian JT (2005) Reliability and statistics in geotechnical engineering. Wiley
Au SK, Beck JL (2001) Estimation of small failure probabilities in high dimensions by subset simulation. Probab Eng Mech 16(4):263–277
Cadini F, Avram D, Pedroni N, Zio E (2012) Subset simulation of a reliability model for radioactive waste repository performance assessment. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 100:75–83
Nazeeh KM, Sivakumar Babu GL (2018) Reliability analysis of near-surface disposal facility using subset simulation. Environ Geotech 6(4):242–249
Manjari KG, Sivakumar Babu GL (2022) Reliability and sensitivity analyses of discrete fracture network based contaminant transport model in fractured rocks. Comput Geotech 145:104674
Uzielli M, Vannucchi G, Phoon KK (2005) Random field characterization of stress-normalized cone penetration testing parameters. Geotechnique 55(1):3–20
Murthy DSN, Sivakumar Babu GL (2008) Reliability analysis of allowable pressure of strip footing in cohesionless soil. Geotech Eng J South East Geotech Soc Bangkok 39(2):77–85
Sivakumar Babu GL, Srivastava A, Murthy DSN (2006) Reliability analysis of bearing capacity of shallow foundation resting on cohesive soil. Can Geotech J 43(2):217–223
Sivakumar Babu GL, Murthy DSN (2007) Effect of spatial correlation of cone tip resistance on the bearing capacity of shallow foundations. Geotech Geol Eng J 26:37–46
Sivakumar Babu GL, Srivastava A (2007) Reliability analysis of allowable pressure on shallow foundation using response surface method. Comput Geotech 34(3):187–194
Geetha Manjari K, Rao B, Sivakumar Babu GL (2015) Stochastic model for settlement: footings on cohesionless soil. Int J Georisk - Assess Manag Risk Eng Syst Geohazards 8(4):269–283
Haldar S, Sivakumar Babu GL (2012) Response of vertically loaded pile in clay: a probabilistic study. Geotech Geol Eng 30(1):187–196
Haldar S, Sivakumar Babu GL (2009) Design of laterally loaded piles in clays based on cone penetration test data: a reliability-based approach. Geotechnique 59:1–14
Haldar S, Sivakumar Babu GL (2008) Reliability measures for pile foundations based on cone penetration data. Can Geotech J 45:1699–1714
Haldar S, Sivakumar Babu GL (2008) Probabilistic analysis of load-settlement response from pile load tests. Georisk: Assess Manag Risk Eng Syst Geohazards 2(2):79–91
Haldar S, Sivakumar Babu GL (2008) Load resistance factor design (LRFD) of axially loaded pile based upon load test results. ASCE J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 134(8):1106–1117
Haldar S, Sivakumar Babu GL (2009) Probabilistic seismic design of pile foundations in non-liquefiable soil by response spectrum approach. J Earthq Eng 13:737–757
Nazeeh KM, Sivakumar Babu GL (2019) Critical appraisal of codes for foundation design and role of reliability-based approach. Indian Geotech J 49:467–477
Fathima Sana VK, Nazeeh KM, Deepthi MD, Sivakumar Babu GL (2022) Reliability-based design optimization of shallow foundation on cohesionless soil based on surrogate-based numerical modeling. ASCE Int J Geomech 22(2). https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GM.1943-5622.0002274
Nazeeh KM, Sivakumar Babu GL (2022) Reliability-based design of geogrid reinforced soil foundation using kriging surrogates. Geosynth Int 1–14
Sivakumar Babu GL, Basha BM (2008) Optimum design of cantilever retaining walls using target reliability approach. ASCE J Int J Geomech 8(4):240–252
Basha BM, Sivakumar Babu GL (2008) Target reliability-based design optimization of anchored cantilever sheet pile walls. Can Geotech J 45:535–545
Basha BM, Sivakumar Babu GL (2009) Seismic reliability assessment of external stability of reinforced soil walls using pseudo-dynamic method. Geosynth Int 16(3):197–215
Basha BM, Sivakumar Babu GL (2010) Reliability assessment of internal stability of reinforced soil structures: a pseudo-dynamic approach. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 30(5):336–353
Basha BM, Sivakumar Babu GL (2010) Load and resistance factor design (LRFD) approach for the reliability-based seismic design of bridge abutments. Georisk: Assess Manag Risk Eng Syst Geohazards 4(3):127–139
Basha BM, Sivakumar Babu GL (2010) Optimum design for external seismic stability of geosynthetic reinforced soil walls: a reliability-based approach. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng ASCE 136(6):797–812
Basha BM, Sivakumar Babu GL (2010) Optimum design of bridge abutments under high seismic loading using the modified pseudo-static method. J Earthq Eng 14(6):874–897
Basha BM, Sivakumar Babu GL (2010) Optimum design of bridge abutments under seismic conditions: a reliability-based approach. J Bridge Eng ASCE 15(2):183–195
Basha BM, Sivakumar Babu GL (2011) Reliability-based earthquake-resistant design for the internal stability of reinforced soil structures. Geotech Geol Eng 29(5):803–820
Basha BM, Sivakumar Babu GL (2011) Seismic reliability assessment of internal stability of reinforced soil walls using the pseudo-dynamic method. Geosynth Int 18(5):221–241
Basha BM, Sivakumar Babu GL (2012) Target reliability-based optimization for internal seismic stability of reinforced soil structures. Geotechnique 62(1):55–68
Basha BM, Sivakumar Babu GL (2014) Reliability-based load and resistance factor design approach for external seismic stability of reinforced soil walls. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 60:8–21
Mukherjee S, Sivakumar Babu GL (2023) Probabilistic evaluation of the uplift capacity of transmission tower foundations using reinforced anchors. Int J Geomech 23(11):04023203
Pramanik R, Mukherjee S, Sivakumar Babu GL (2022) Deterministic and probabilistic prediction of the maximum wall facing displacement of geosynthetic-reinforced soil segmental walls using multivariate adaptive regression splines. Transport Geotech 36:100816. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.Trgeo.2022.100816
Sivakumar Babu GL, Singh vp (2009) Deformation and stability regression models for soil nailing. Proc Inst Civ Eng J Geotech Eng 162:1–11
Sivakumar Babu GL, Singh VP (2009) Reliability analysis of soil nail walls. J Georisk: Assess Manag Risk Eng Syst Geohazards 3(1):44–54
Sivakumar Babu GL, Singh VP (2009) Reliability-based study on the seismic stability of soil nail walls. J South East Geotech Soc Bangkok 40(4):237–246
Sivakumar Babu GL, Singh VP (2010) Reliability analyses of a prototype soil nail wall using regression models. Geomech Eng Int J 2(2):71–88
Sivakumar Babu GL, Singh VP (2011) Reliability-based load and resistance factors for soil nail walls. Can Geotech J 48(6):915–930
Pramanik R, Sivakumar Babu GL (2023) Reliability-based load and resistance factors for soil nail walls against facing failures. Int J Geosynth Ground Eng 9(3):27
Deepthi MD, Sivakumar Babu GL (2013) A methodology for pavement design evaluation and back analysis using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. J Transport Eng ASCE 139(1):65–74
Deepthi MD, Ravi P, Sivakumar Babu GL (2013) System reliability analysis of flexible pavements. ASCE J Transport Eng 139(10):1001–1009
Deepthi MD, Sivakumar Babu GL (2016) Methodology for global sensitivity analysis of flexible pavements in a Bayesian back-analysis framework. ASCE-ASME J Risk Uncertain Eng Syst Part A: Civ Eng, https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUa6.0000865, 04016002
Deepthi MD, Sivakumar Babu GL (2014) Influence of spatial variability on pavement responses using Latin hypercube sampling on 2D random fields. ASCE J Mater Eng J Mater Civ Eng 26(11):04014083
Deepthi MD, Sivakumar Babu GL (2016) Influence of anisotropy on pavement responses using adaptive sparse polynomial chaos expansion. ASCE J Mater Civ Eng 28(1):04015061
Deepthi MD, Sivakumar Babu GL, Lekshmi S (2015) Time-dependent reliability analysis of pavement structures under fatigue loading. Geotechnical Safety and Risk V; IOS Press: Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 358–363
Deepthi MD, Sivakumar Babu GL (2020) Reliability-based design optimization of flexible pavements using kriging models. J Transport Eng Part B: Pavements 147(3):04021046
Deepthi MD, Sivakumar Babu GL (2023) System reliability-based design optimization of flexible pavements using adaptive meta-modelling techniques. Constr Build Mater 367:130351
Deepthi MD, Nazeeh KM, Sivakumar Babu GL (2023) Reliability analysis of flexible based on the quantile-value method. Int J Pavement Eng 24(1):2241109. https://doi.org/10.1080/10298436.2023.2241109
Kalore SA, Sivakumar Babu GL, Mallick RB (2019) Risk analysis of permeable layer in pavement subsurface drainage system. Pavements J Transp Eng 145(3):04019028
Sivakumar Babu GL, Murthy DSN (2005) Reliability analysis of unsaturated slopes. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 131(11):1423–1429
Srivastava A, Sivakumar Babu GL, Haldar S (2010) Influence of spatial variability of permeability property on steady state seepage flow and slope stability analysis. Eng Geol 110(3–4):93–101
ICOLD (International Commission on Large Dams) (1999) Paris: ICOLD
USBR (United States Bureau of Reclamation) (2011) Embankment dams. Design Standards. No. 13, chapter 5, revision 9
Sivakumar Babu GL, Srivastava A (2010) Reliability analysis of earth dams. J Geotech Geoenviron Engineering ASCE 136(7):995–998
Ering P, Sivakumar Babu GL (2016) Probabilistic back analysis of rainfall-induced landslide: a case study of Malin landslide, India. Eng Geol 208:154–164
Ering P, Sivakumar Babu GL (2016) A Bayesian framework for updating model parameters while considering spatial variability. Georisk: Assess Manag Risk Eng Syst Geohazards. https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2016.1255760
Ering P, Sivakumar Babu GL (2020) Characterization of critical rainfall for slopes prone to rainfall-induced landslides. ASCE Nat Hazards Rev 21(3):06020003
Sivakumar Babu GL, Ering P (2017) Integrating rainfall load into remedial design of slopes affected by landslides, geotechnics for natural disaster mitigation and management, 67–74
Rana H, Sivakumar Babu GL (2022) Probabilistic back analysis for rainfall-induced slope failure using MLS-SVR and Bayesian analysis. Georisk: Assess Manag Risk Eng Syst Geohazards, 1–14
Rana H, Pandit B, Sivakumar Babu GL (2023) Estimation of uncertainties in soil using MCMC simulation and effect of model uncertainty. Geotech Geol Eng, 1–15
Showkat R, Mohammadi H, Sivakumar Babu GL (2022) Effect of rainfall infiltration on the stability of compacted embankments. Int J Geomech. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GM.1943-5622.0002425
Showkat R, Sivakumar Babu GL (2023) Reliability analysis of unsaturated embankment considering the effect of geocomposite under infiltration. Geosynth Int. https://doi.org/10.1680/jgein.22.00268
Moser A (1990) Buried pipe design. McGraw Hill Professional
Sivakumar Babu GL, Rajaparthy RS (2005) Reliability measures for buried flexible pipes. Can Geotech J 42(2):541–549
Sivakumar Babu GL, Srivastava A (2010) Reliability analysis of buried flexible pipe-soil systems. J Pipeline Syst Eng Pract ASCE 1(1):33–41
Pandit B, Sivakumar Babu GL (2017) Reliability based robust design for reinforcement of jointed rock slope. Georisk: Assess Manag Risk Eng Syst Geohazards 12(2):152–168
Pandit B (2021) Reliability based analysis and design of slopes and tunnels in rock mass, Ph.D. thesis, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore
Pandit B, Sivakumar Babu GL (2021) Probabilistic stability assessment of tunnel-support system considering spatial variability in weak rock mass. Comput Geotech 137:104242
Tiwari G, Pandit B, Madhavi LG, Sivakumar Babu GL (2017) Probabilistic analysis of tunnels considering uncertainty in peak and post-peak strength parameters. Tunnel Undergr Space Technol 70:375–387
Tiwari G, Pandit B, Madhavi LG, Sivakumar Babu GL (2018) Analysis of tunnel support requirements using deterministic and probabilistic approaches in average quality rock mass. Int J Geomech 18(4):04018017
Sivakumar Babu GL, Reddy KR, Srivastava A (2014) Influence of spatially variable geotechnical properties of MSW on the stability of landfill slopes. J Hazard Toxic Radioactive Waste 18(1):27–37
Reddy KR, Kulkarni HS, Srivastava A, Sivakumar Babu GL (2013) Influence of spatial variation of hydraulic conductivity of municipal solid waste on the performance of bioreactor landfill. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 139(11):1968–1972
Sivakumar Babu GL, Chouskey SK, Reddy KR (2013) Approach for the use of MSW settlement predictions in the assessment of landfill capacity based on reliability analysis. Waste Manage 33:2029–2034
Sivakumar Babu GL, Reddy KR, Chouksey SK (2010) Constitutive model for municipal solid waste incorporating mechanical creep and biodegradation-induced compression. Waste Manag J 30(1):11–22
Parameswaran TG, Nazeeh KM, Deekshith PK, Sivakumar Babu GL (2022) Probabilistic design of gas collection systems for a prototype bioreactor. ASCE-ASME J Risk Uncertain Eng Syst Part A: Civ Eng 8(4):04022053
Parameswaran T, Nazeeh KM, Deekshith PK, Sivakumar Babu GL, Chamindu DTKK (2023) Gas collection system design for a landfill via three-dimensional stochastic waste heterogeneity models and kriging. J Environ Chem Eng 11:110563
Santhosh LG, Sivakumar Babu GL (2014) Reliability of the liner system using the response surface method. Environ Geotech 1(2):71–80
Santhosh LG, Lakshmikanthan P, Sivakumar Babu GL (2017) Reliability-based approach for the prediction of leachate head in MSW landfills. Int J Geosynth Ground Eng 3(4). https://doi.org/10.1007/S40891-016-0080-4
USEPA (1993) Solid waste disposal facility criteria, subpart D-design criteria. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, EPA530-R-93-017, 40 CFR § 258.40
Rowe RK, Chappel MJ, Brachman RWI, Take WA (2012) Field study of wrinkles in a geomembrane at a composite liner test site. Can Geotech J 49(10):1196–1211
Sujitha S, Manjari GK, Datta S, Sivakumar Babu GL (2015) Risk and reliability analysis of multi-barrier system for near-surface disposal facilities. ASCE J Hazard Toxic Radioact Waste 20(2):04015014. https://doi.org/10.1061/HZ.2153-5515.0000284
Sujitha S, Deepthi DM, Sivakumar Babu GL (2016) Time-dependent reliability analysis for radionuclide migration in groundwater in near-surface disposal facility using enhanced Monte Carlo method. Georisk: Assess Manag Risk Eng Syst Geohazards. https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2016.1229867
Sujitha S, Sivakumar Babu GL (2017). System reliability analysis for near-surface radioactive waste disposal facilities. Georisk: Assess Manag Risk Eng Syst Geohazards 11(4):2017
Geetha Manjari K, Sivakumar Babu GL (2017) Probabilistic analysis of groundwater and radionuclide transport model from near surface disposal facilities. Georisk: Assess Manag Risk Eng Syst Geohazards 12(1):60–73
Geetha Manjari K, Sivakumar Babu GL (2021) Probabilistic analysis of radionuclide transport for near-surface disposal facilities in spatially varying soils. J Hazard Toxic Radioactive Waste 25(1):04020059
Geetha Manjari K, Sivakumar Babu GL (2022) Reliability and sensitivity analyses of discrete fracture network-based contaminant transport model in fractured rocks. Comput Geotech 145:104674
Kalore SA, Sivakumar Babu GL, Mahajan R (2021) Probabilistic design framework for granular filters. https://doi.org/10.1061/(Asce)Gt.1943-5606.0002674
Sivakumar Babu GL, Vasudevan AK, Haldar S (2008) Numerical simulation of fiber-reinforced sand behavior. Geotext Geomembr 26(2):181–188
Harr M (1977) Mechanics of particulate media: a probabilistic approach. McGraw-Hill
Harr M (1987) Reliability-based design in civil engineering. McGraw-Hill Book Company
De Mello VFB (1977) Reflections on design decisions of practical significance to embankment dams, 17th Rankine Lecture. Geotéchnique 27(3):281–355. https://doi.org/10.1680/geot.1977.27.3.281
Christian JT (2004) Geotechnical engineering reliability: How well do we know what we are doing? J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 130(10):985–1003. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1090-0241(2004)130:10(985)
Gregory BB (2021) Geotechnical systems, uncertainty, and risk. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 149(1):03023001. https://doi.org/10.1061/JGGEFK.GTENG-10201
Acknowledgements
I wish to thank the Indian Geotechnical Society (IGS), New Delhi, for bestowing the honor of Society’s 45th Annual lecture and IGS Roorkee Chapter for providing the facilities to give the lecture during the Indian Geotechnical Conference at Roorkee. I wish to remember Prof. M. E. Harr of Purdue University, West Lafeyette, Indiana, USA, for introducing me to the need for probabilistic thinking and analysis in geotechnical engineering during our discussions in 1996 while I was a visiting scholar at Purdue and was associated with Late Prof. G A Leonards, a strong supporter of IGS. I thank the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, for providing an excellent eco system for nurturing the research and efficient support system. I wish to thank my past and present colleagues in the Department of Civil Engineering and Centre for Sustainable Technologies for the support and valuable discussions. The work presented is based on the excellent work done in the area by my past and present students, Dr. Seshagiri Rao R, Prof. D S N Murty, Prof. A K Vasudevan, Prof. Sumanta Haldar, Prof. Munwar Basha, Prof. Vikas Pratap Singh, Prof. Amit Srivatsava, Dr. Sandeep K Chouskey, Dr. M D Deepthi, Dr. P Lakshmikanthan, Dr. Lekshmi Jaidev Nair, Dr. L G Santhosh, Dr. Pinom Ering, Dr. K Geetha Manjari, Prof. P Sughosh, Dr. Bharadwaj Pandit, Dr. Himansu Rana, Dr. K M Nazeeh, Dr. Shubham Arun Kalore, Sougata Mukherjee, Rakshanda Showkat, Prathima. P, Kalyani K, N. Anusree, and Prince Kumar. Thanks are due to M D Mukesh, Dr. Awdesh Kumar, Dr. Parameswaran, Dr. Rajarshi Pramanik, S Sujitha, Dr. Asha Nair and many others who were associated with me in research projects. The work received financial support from many funding agencies such as Council of Scientific & Industrial Research, (CSIR), Department of Science and Technology (DST), Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, Board of Research in Nuclear Sciences Government of India (BRNS), Public Works Department of Arunachal Pradesh, Ministry of Power, Science and Engineering Research Board (IMPRINT and NPDF schemes), and many others. I wish to specially thank Dr. Shubham Arun Kalore, Dr. Geetha Manjari, Dr. M D Deepthi and Prof. Munwar Basha for help in review and preparation of the manuscript. I thank Smt. K. Himabindu, my wife, children Deepti and Vennela for providing a wonderful atmosphere of happiness and joy at home which significantly contributed to my progress.
Funding
Not required.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The author declares that he does not have any conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Sivakumar Babu, G.L. Reliability and Risk Analysis in Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering. Indian Geotech J (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40098-024-00909-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40098-024-00909-6