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Variability of Monsoon Over Homogeneous Regions of India Using Regional Climate Model and Impact on Crop Production

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Abstract

Any alteration in climatic parameter (such as rainfall) governs crop growth and has had a direct impact on quantity of food production. On the complex topographical terrain of Indian subcontinent this work represents the impact of seasonal monsoon rainfall variability on major food crop production over five homogeneous regions of India. The major Rabi crops, wheat (Triticum aestivum), sorghum (Sorghum vulgare), pulses and kharif crops rice (Oryza sativa), maize (Zea mays) and groundnut (Arachis hypogea), have a sharp dependency on Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) over the regions. Trend analysis in production of major food crops has been analyzed along with the dependency on seasonal monsoon rainfall of IMD as well as regional climate model version 4.3. Yearly crop production of Rabi and kharif has shown a clear decreasing trend with ISMR distribution. This study also shows the worse affected homogeneous regions in agriculture crop production due to rainfall variability. Along with rice–sorghum–maize, wheat and groundnut production is sharply affected by the decreasing trend of monsoon rainfall over the North Central India which is also known as Gangetic plain. The post-monsoonal crop production is also influenced by seasonal monsoon rainfall variability, and the fluctuation in monsoonal and post-monsoonal crop production is indicating alarming situation for food security and becoming the current issue to feed the huge population of India.

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Acknowledgements

This work is a part of a R&D project, funded by Department of Science and Technology (DST), Ministry of Earth Science (MoES), Govt. of India. The authors wish to thank to India Meteorology Department (IMD), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and International Crops Research Institute in Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT-IN) for providing dataset. Authors also wish their sincere gratitude to the editor and the reviewers for their valuable suggestion and comments. Special thanks to International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Italy, for RegCM-4.3 model.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geophysics, Institute of Science, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, 221005, India

    R. Bhatla, Soumik Ghosh & Shruti Verma

  2. DST-Mahamana Centre of Excellence in Climate Change Research, Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India

    R. Bhatla, Shruti Verma & R. K. Mall

  3. Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai, India

    Gaurav R. Gharde

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  1. R. Bhatla
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Contributions

RB and SG are conceived the study. SV, SG and GG have analyzed the data. RKM has guided in agriculture section. SG, SV and RB have written the manuscript.

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Correspondence to R. Bhatla.

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Bhatla, R., Ghosh, S., Verma, S. et al. Variability of Monsoon Over Homogeneous Regions of India Using Regional Climate Model and Impact on Crop Production. Agric Res 8, 331–346 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40003-018-0368-9

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