Cropping Calendar Scenario Based on Climate Projections Against Regional Climate Change in the Southern Part of Indonesia

Abstract

Although there have been many studies in climate projection and cropping calendar, but a little evidence in relationships with climate change in the southern part of Indonesia, especially in East Nusa Tenggara. East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) Province, a province with consists many islands, typical monsoon climate with low annual rainfall. The aims of this study is to predict potential rainfall that can be used for agriculture, to calculate crop water requirement (especially for rice and corn), and to decide planting schedule for rice and corn during 2016–2020 in Kupang, East Nusa Tenggara Province as the southern part of Indonesia. As the results, for climate projection, temperature during period 2015–2040 will be increased around 0.4 °C, and rainfall will be fluctuated during that period. Data rainfall prediction is used to predict water balance during 2016–2020. Water balance for each beginning of planting season was used as basic to decide planting schedule of rice and corn. The result shows that water potential from rainfall is 838.9 mm year⁻¹. The amount of crop water requirement for rice on December and January (2016–2020) are 605.73 mm per planting season and 611.56 mm per planting season, respectively. Further, crop water requirement of corn (December and January) are 344.78 mm per planting season and 348.19 mm per planting season, respectively. Planting schedule scenarios during 5 year (2016–2020) for rice and corn are dominates in December and January.