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Dynamic risk analysis of hydrogen gas leakage using Bow-tie technique and Bayesian network

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Abstract

The power plants of each country can be considered as one of the most important factors in economic development and growth of that country. Accidents at power plants are very dangerous and make their accessibility difficult. So, it is critical to be able to predict and appropriately assess the relevant risks. In this study, we focus on hydrogen gas leakage from chlorination unit as the study scenario to evaluate potential risk of accidents. We then use the Bow-tie technique and Bayesian Network analysis to determine the type and the relationship between the effective causes of the catastrophic accidents. According to Bayesian Network, decrease in flow rate in the ventilation system of the storage tank was identified as the most probable base event, and erupted fire/sudden fire/explosion were identified as the most probable consequences of occurrence of the top event. The use of Bayesian network could reduce parameter uncertainty through probability updating.

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Acknowledgements

This research was done with the support of the Fam Safety Center. The authors would like to express their appreciation and thanks to the mentioned organizations.

Funding

This study is supported by Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Iran (Grant No. 970121131).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Engineering, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

    H. Borgheipour

  2. Department of Health, Safety and Environmental, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences and Health Services, Tehran, Iran

    G. M. Tehrani

  3. Department of Occupational Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran

    T. Eskandari

  4. Department of Executive Management Business Administration, Management School, Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran

    O. C. Mohammadieh

  5. Center of Excellence for Occupational Health, Occupational Health and Safety Research Center, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran

    I. Mohammadfam

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  1. H. Borgheipour
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  4. O. C. Mohammadieh
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Correspondence to I. Mohammadfam.

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Editorial responsibility: Agnieszka Galuszka.

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Borgheipour, H., Tehrani, G.M., Eskandari, T. et al. Dynamic risk analysis of hydrogen gas leakage using Bow-tie technique and Bayesian network. Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol. 18, 3613–3624 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-020-03090-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-020-03090-4

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