Evaluating transport externalities of urban growth: a critical review of scenario-based planning methods

  • S. Perveen
  • T. YigitcanlarEmail author
  • Md. Kamruzzaman
  • J. Hayes


Urban growth is an important phenomenon, which is taking place on an unprecedented scale, and its impacts on society and the environment are evident. In theory, an evaluation of such urban growth through scenario-based planning helps planners to better assess the future impacts of growth and develop better policies and plans. Within this context, the assessment of transport impacts is particularly important as transport plays an important role in shaping urban growth. Additionally, transport sector alone is responsible for about one-third of the greenhouse gas emissions of cities, which has detrimental effects on the environment, economy, community health, and quality of life. In practice, however, scarce evidence exists outlining the challenges of scenario-based evaluation and how to best address these while modelling the transport impacts of various urban growth scenarios. This research addresses these gaps in the literature and assesses the effectiveness of scenario-based planning methods that are used for modelling the transport impacts of alternative urban growth scenarios. The methodological approach of the study consists of a critical review of the key literature and relevant methods that are commonly used to assess transport impacts. The results of this analysis highlight limitations of existing methods for effectively evaluating transport externalities of urban growth scenarios. The findings suggest that among many reviewed models, the ILUTE, URBANSIM and TRANUS simulation models are identified as significant ones. However, due to various limitations of the former two, TRANUS is noted as the most suitable one for evaluating the transport impacts of urban growth scenarios.


Urban growth scenarios Integrated land use and transportation models Environmental impact Assessment methods Scenario evaluation Scenario generation 



This research is conducted with funding support from the Australian Postgraduate Award provided jointly by the Australian Federal Government and the Queensland University of Technology. Authors are grateful for the constructive comments of the editor and anonymous referees on an earlier version of this paper.


  1. Abdel-Galil RES (2012) Desert reclamation, a management system for sustainable urban expansion. Prog Plan 78:151–206. doi: 10.1016/j.progress.2012.04.003 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Al-shalabi M, Billa L, Pradhan B, Mansor S, Al-sharif AA (2013) Modelling urban growth evolution and land-use changes using GIS-based cellular automata and SLEUTH models: the case of Sana’a metropolitan city, Yemen. Environ Earth Sci 70:425–437. doi: 10.1007/s12665-012-2137-6 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Armstrong JM, Khan AM (2004) Modelling urban transportation emissions: role of GIS. Comput Environ Urban Syst 28:421–433. doi: 10.1016/S0198-9715(02)00070-4 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Ayad HM, Saad Allah DM, Abd ElAzeem HS (2012) Investigating urban growth scenarios in Wadi El Natrun area, Egypt, using the UPlan land use allocation model. J Land Use Sci 8:304–320. doi: 10.1080/1747423X.2012.667449 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Aysan M, Demir O, Altan Z, Dokmeci V (1997) Industrial decentralization in Istanbul and its impact on transport. J Urban Plan Dev 123:40–58. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9488(1997)123:3(40) CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Bailey K, Grossardt T, Pride-Wells M (2007) Community design of a light rail transit-oriented development using casewise visual evaluation (CAVE). Socio Econ Plan Sci 41:235–254. doi: 10.1016/j.seps.2006.04.002 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Banister D, Berechman J (2003) Transport investment and economic development. Routledge, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  8. Bartholomew K, Ewing R (2009) Land use transportation scenarios and future vehicle travel and land consumption: a Meta-Analysis. Am Plan Assoc J Am Plan Assoc 75:13–27. doi: 10.1080/01944360802508726 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Beardsley K, Thorne JH, Roth NE, Gao S, McCoy MC (2009) Assessing the influence of rapid urban growth and regional policies on biological resources. Landsc Urban Plan 93:172–183. doi: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2009.07.003 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Bhatta B (2010) Causes and Consequences of Urban Growth and Sprawl. In:  Analysis of Urban Growth and Sprawl from Remote Sensing Data, vol 1st. Springer, DE, pp 17–36. doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-05299-6
  11. Bowman JL, Ben-Akiva ME (2001) Activity-based disaggregate travel demand model system with activity schedules. Transp Res Part A Policy Pract 35:1–28. doi: 10.1016/S0965-8564(99)00043-9 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Bracken, I (2014) Urban planning methods: Research and policy analysis. RoutledgeGoogle Scholar
  13. Brown AL, Affum JK (2002) A GIS-based environmental modelling system for transportation planners. Comput Environ Urban Syst 26:577–590. doi: 10.1016/S0198-9715(01)00016-3 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Burke M, Li T, Dodson J (2011) What happens when government workers move to the suburbs?: impact on transport of planned decentralization of employment in Brisbane, Australia. Transp Res Rec J Transp Res Board 2255:110–116. doi: 10.3141/2255-12 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Button KJ (1994) Special issue transport externalities alternative approaches toward containing transport externalities: an international comparison. Transp Res Part A Policy Pract 28:289–305. doi: 10.1016/0965-8564(94)90004-3 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Cervero R (2006) Alternative approaches to modeling the travel-demand impacts of smart growth. Am Plan Assoc J Am Plan Assoc 72:285–295CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Chakrabarty BK (2001) Urban management: concepts, principles, techniques and education. Cities 18:331–345. doi: 10.1016/S0264-2751(01)00026-9 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Chakraborty A, Mishra S (2013) Land use and transit ridership connections: implications for state-level planning agencies. Land Use Policy 30:458–469. doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2012.04.017 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Chen T-C, Huang S-L (1998) Towards a symbiosis: urban development and environmental quality in the Taipei metropolitan region. J Environ Plan Manag 41:77–94. doi: 10.1080/09640569811803 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Choe K, Laquian AA (2008) City cluster development: toward an urban-led development strategy for Asia. Asian Development Bank, MandaluyongGoogle Scholar
  21. Correia FN, Da Graça SM, Da Silva FN, Ramos I (1999) Floodplain management in urban developing areas. Part I. Urban growth scenarios and land-use controls. Water Resour Manag 13:1–21. doi: 10.1023/A:1008097403587 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Corvalan CF, ebrary I, World Health O (2005) Ecosystems and human well-being: a report of the millennium ecosystem assessment. vol Book, Whole. World Health Organization.
  23. Dark SJ, Bram D (2007) The modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) in physical geography. Prog Phys Geogr 31:471–479. doi: 10.1177/0309133307083294 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. De Ridder K et al (2008) Simulating the impact of urban sprawl on air quality and population exposure in the German Ruhr area. Part II: development and evaluation of an urban growth scenario. Atmos Environ 42:7070–7077. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.06.044 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. De Vos J, Witlox F (2013) Transportation policy as spatial planning tool; reducing urban sprawl by increasing travel costs and clustering infrastructure and public transportation. J Transp Geogr 33:117–125. doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2013.09.014 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Dizdaroglu D, Yigitcanlar T (2014) A parcel-scale assessment tool to measure sustainability through urban ecosystem components: the MUSIX model. Ecol Ind 41:115–130. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.01.037 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Dizdaroglu D, Yigitcanlar T (2016) Integrating urban ecosystem sustainability assessment into policy-making: insights from the Gold Coast City. J Environ Plan Manag 59:1982–2006. doi: 10.1080/09640568.2015.1103211 Google Scholar
  28. Dizdaroglu D, Yigitcanlar T, Dawes L (2012) A micro-level indexing model for assessing urban ecosystem sustainability. Smart Sustain Built Environ 1:291–315. doi: 10.1108/20466091211287155 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Dobranskyte-Niskota A, Perujo A, Pregl M (2007). Indicators to assess sustainability of transportation activities. European Commission Joint Research Centre Institute for Environment and Sustainability, IspraGoogle Scholar
  30. Duque JAG, Panagopoulos T (2010) Urban planning throughout environmental quality and human well-being. Spat Organ Dyn Discuss Pap 4:7–20Google Scholar
  31. Dur F, Yigitcanlar T (2015) Assessing land-use and transport integration via a spatial composite indexing model. Int J Environ Sci Technol 12:803–816. doi: 10.1007/s13762-013-0476-9 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Dur F, Yigitcanlar T, Bunker J (2014) A spatial-indexing model for measuring neighbourhood-level land-use and transport integration. Environ Plan 41:792–812. doi: 10.1068/b39028 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Dutta P, Saujot M, Arnaud E, Lefevre B, Prados E (2012) Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis during calibration of TRANUS, an integrated land use and transport model. In: ICURPT 2012-International Conference on Urban, Regional Planning and Transportation, vol 65Google Scholar
  34. Duvarci Y, Yigitcanlar T, Mizokami S (2015) Transportation disadvantage impedance indexing: a methodological approach to reduce policy shortcomings. J Transport Geogr 48:61–75. doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2015.08.014 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Feng X, Zhang J, Fujiwara A (2009) Adding a new step with spatial autocorrelation to improve the four-step travel demand model with feedback for a developing city. Int Assoc Traffic Saf Sci Res 33:44–54. doi: 10.1016/S0386-1112(14)60236-3 Google Scholar
  36. Fertner C, Jørgensen G, Nielsen TS (2012) Land use scenarios for Greater Copenhagen: modelling the impact of the Fingerplan. J Settl Spat Plan 3:1–10Google Scholar
  37. Feudo FL (2014) How to Build an alternative to sprawl and auto-centric development model through a TOD scenario for the North-Pas-de-Calais region? Lessons from an integrated transportation-land use modelling. Transp Res Proced 4:154–177. doi: 10.1016/j.trpro.2014.11.013 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Fotheringham AS, Wong DWS (1991) The modifiable areal unit problem in multivariate statistical analysis. Environ Plan A 23:1025–1044CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Gärling T, Schuitema G (2007) Travel demand management targeting reduced private car use: effectiveness, public acceptability and political feasibility. J Soc Issues 63:139–153CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Goonetilleke A, Yigitcanlar T, Ayoko GA, Egodawatta P (2014) Sustainable urban water environment: climate, pollution and adaptation. Edward Elgar Publishing, NorthamptonCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Gwilliam KM (2002) Cities on the move: a world bank urban transport strategy review. World Bank Publications, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  42. Harries C (2003) Correspondence to what? Coherence to what? What is good scenario-based decision-making? Technol Forecast Soc Change 70:797–817. doi: 10.1016/S0040-1625(03)00023-4 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Haslauer E, Biberacher M, Blaschke T (2012) GIS-based backcasting: an innovative method for parameterisation of sustainable spatial planning and resource management. Futures 44:292–302. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2011.10.012 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Hatzopoulou M, Miller EJ (2010) Linking an activity-based travel demand model with traffic emission and dispersion models: transport’s contribution to air pollution in Toronto. Transp Res Part D Transp Environ 15:315–325. doi: 10.1016/j.trd.2010.03.007 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Healey P (2001) Planning theory: interaction with institutional contexts. In: Baltes NJSB (ed) International encyclopedia of the social and behavioral sciences. Pergamon, Oxford, pp 11485–11491. doi: 10.1016/B0-08-043076-7/04432-6 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Hensher D (2002) A systematic assessment of the environmental impacts of transport policy. Environ Resour Econ 22:185–217. doi: 10.1023/A:1015527601997 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Hu R (2015) Sustainability and competitiveness in Australian cities. Sustainability 7:1840–1860. doi: 10.3390/su7021840 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Hua L, Tang L, Cui S, Yin K (2014) Simulating urban growth using the SLEUTH model in a coastal peri-urban district in China. Sustainability 6:3899–3914. doi: 10.3390/su6063899 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Hunt JD, Kriger DS, Miller EJ (2005) Current operational urban land-use–transport modelling frameworks: a review. Transp Rev 25:329–376CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Jantz CA, Goetz SJ, Shelley MK (2004) Using the SLEUTH urban growth model to simulate the impacts of future policy scenarios on urban land use in the Baltimore—Washington metropolitan area. Environ Plan 31:251–271. doi: 10.1068/b2983 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Jarke M, Bui XT, Carroll JM (1998) Scenario management: an interdisciplinary approach. Requir Eng 3:155–173. doi: 10.1007/s007660050002 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Johnson RA, McCoy MC (2006) Assessment of integrated transportation/land use models. Information Center for the Environment. Department of Environmental Science & Policy, University of California, DavisGoogle Scholar
  53. Jovicic G (2001) Activity based travel demand modelling: a literature survey. Danmarks Transport Forskning ISSN:1601-0841Google Scholar
  54. Jun M-J, Hur J-W (2001) Commuting costs of “leap-frog” newtown development in Seoul. Cities 18:151–158. doi: 10.1016/S0264-2751(01)00007-5 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Kahn H, Wiener AJ (1967) The next thirty-three years: a framework for speculation. Daedalus 96:705–732. doi: 10.2307/20027066 Google Scholar
  56. Kamruzzaman M, Baker D, Washington S, Turrell G (2014) Advance transit oriented development typology: case study in Brisbane, Australia. J Transp Geogr 34:54–70. doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2013.11.002 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Kamruzzaman M, Hine J, Yigitcanlar T (2015) Investigating the link between carbon dioxide emissions and transport-related social exclusion in rural Northern Ireland. Int J Environ Sci Technol 12:3463–3478. doi: 10.1007/s13762-015-0771-8 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Kamruzzaman M, Yigitcanlar T, Yang J, Mohamed A (2016) Measures of transport-related social exclusion: a critical review of the literature. Sustainability 8:696. doi: 10.3390/su8070696 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Khodabakhshi S (2013) Density and Sustainable Urban Development.
  60. Kumar DS, Arya D, Vojinovic Z (2013) Modeling of urban growth dynamics and its impact on surface runoff characteristics. Comput Environ Urban Syst 41:124–135. doi: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2013.05.004 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Kwan M-P, Weber J (2008) Scale and accessibility: implications for the analysis of land use–travel interaction. Appl Geogr 28:110–123. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2007.07.002 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. Lauf S, Haase D, Seppelt R, Schwarz N (2012) Simulating demography and housing demand in an urban region under scenarios of growth and shrinkage. Environ Plan 39:229–246. doi: 10.1068/b36046t CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Li K, Zhang P, Crittenden JC, Guhathakurta S, Chen Y, Fernando H, Joshi H (2007) Development of a framework for quantifying the environmental impacts of urban development and construction practices. Environ sci technol 41(14):5130–5136CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Lindgren M, Bandhold H (2009) Scenario planning: revised and updated. Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke. doi: 10.1057/9780230233584 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Mahbub P, Ayoko GA, Goonetilleke A, Egodawatta P (2011) Analysis of the build-up of semi and non volatile organic compounds on urban roads. Water Res 45:2835–2844. doi: 10.1016/j.watres.2011.02.033 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Manzo S, Nielsen OA, Prato CG (2015) How uncertainty in input and parameters influences transport model: output A four-stage model case-study. Transp Policy 38:64–72. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2014.12.004 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  67. Martínez A, Mirás J (2009) Review essay: the second industrial revolution and urban growth: the impact of transport in Spanish cities. J Urban Hist 35:298–305. doi: 10.1177/0096144208327357 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. Mehaffy MW (2013) Prospects for scenario-modelling urban design methodologies to achieve significant greenhouse gas emissions reductions. Urban Des Int 18:313–324. doi: 10.1057/udi.2013.9 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. Mikelbank BA (2010) Quantitative Geography: perspectives on spatial data analysis. Geogr Anal 33(4):370–370. doi: 10.1111/j.1538-4632.2001.tb00453.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  70. Minnery JR (1992) Urban form and development strategies : equity, environmental and economic implications Background papers (Australia. National Housing Strategy), vol 7. Australian Govt. Pub. Service, Canberra.
  71. Mittal S, Dai H, Shukla PR (2015) Low carbon urban transport scenarios for China and India: a comparative assessment. Transp Res Part D Transp Environ. doi: 10.1016/j.trd.2015.04.002 Google Scholar
  72. Morrow E, Park J, Randall E, Sivasailam D, Son D (2013) Linking transportation and land use goals through scenario planning. Transp Res Rec J Transp Res Board 2397:22–29. doi: 10.3141/2397-03 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  73. Næss P (2001) Urban planning and sustainable development. Eur Plann Stud 9:503–524. doi: 10.1080/713666490 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  74. Newby-Clark IR, Ross M, Buehler R, Koehler DJ, Griffin D (2000) People focus on optimistic scenarios and disregard pessimistic scenarios while predicting task completion times. J Exp Psychol Appl 6:171–182. doi: 10.1037/1076-898X.6.3.171 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  75. Newman P (2001) Planning issues and sustainable development. In: Baltes NJSB (ed) International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences. Pergamon, Oxford, pp 11479–11482.
  76. Newton P (2000) Urban form and environmental performance. In: Achieving sustainable urban form, pp 46–53 Google Scholar
  77. Nguyen D, Coowanitwong N (2011) Strategic environmental assessment application for sustainable transport-related air quality policies: a case study in Hanoi City, Vietnam. Environ Dev Sustain 13:565–585. doi: 10.1007/s10668-010-9277-1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  78. Oana PL, Harutyun S, Brendan W, Sheila C (2011) Scenarios and indicators supporting urban regional planning. Proced Soc Behav Sci 21:243–252. doi: 10.1016/j.sbspro.2011.07.012 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  79. Openshaw S (1996) Developing GIS-relevant zone-based spatial analysis methods. Spatial analysis: modelling in a GIS environment, pp 55–73Google Scholar
  80. Pearman AD (1988) Scenario construction for transport planning. Transp Plan Technol 12:73–85. doi: 10.1080/03081068808717361 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  81. Rocha WP, Delgado MG, Sendra JB, (2011) Simulating urban growth scenarios using GIS and multicriteria analysis techniques: a case study of the Madrid region, Spain. Environ Plan 38:1012–1031. doi: 10.1068/b37061 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  82. Porter DR (1997) Managing growth in America’s communities. Island Press, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  83. Pucher J, Zr Peng, Mittal N, Zhu Y, Korattyswaroopam N (2007) Urban transport trends and policies in China and India: impacts of rapid economic growth. Transp Rev 27:379–410. doi: 10.1080/01441640601089988 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  84. Rafiee R, Mahiny AS, Khorasani N, Darvishsefat AA, Danekar A (2009) Simulating urban growth in Mashad City, Iran through the SLEUTH model (UGM). Cities 26:19–26. doi: 10.1016/j.cities.2008.11.005 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  85. Ratcliffe J, Krawczyk E (2011) Imagineering city futures: the use of prospective through scenarios in urban planning. Futures 43:642–653. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2011.05.005 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  86. Ren W et al (2015) Inter-city passenger transport in larger urban agglomeration area: emissions and health impacts. J Clean Prod. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.03.102 Google Scholar
  87. Rikkonen P, Tapio P (2009) Future prospects of alternative agro-based bioenergy use in Finland—Constructing scenarios with quantitative and qualitative Delphi data. Technol Forecast Soc Change 76:978–990. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2008.12.001 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  88. Roth NE, Thorne JH, Johnston RA, Quinn JF, McCoy MC (2012) Modeling impacts to agricultural revenue and government service costs from urban growth. J Agric Food Syst Commun Dev 2:1–20Google Scholar
  89. Rowe G, Wright G (1999) The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis. Int J Forecast 15:353–375. doi: 10.1016/S0169-2070(99)00018-7 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  90. Schoemaker PJH (1993) Multiple scenario development: its conceptual and behavioral foundation. Strateg Manag J 14:193–213. doi: 10.1002/smj.4250140304 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  91. Schroeder MJ, Lambert JH (2010) Scenario-based multiple criteria analysis for infrastructure policy impacts and planning. J Risk Res 14:191–214. doi: 10.1080/13669877.2010.515314 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  92. Seo Y, Kim S-M (2013) Estimation of greenhouse gas emissions from road traffic: a case study in Korea. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 28:777–787CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  93. Shearer AW et al (2009) Land use scenarios: environmental consequences of development. CRC Press, HobokenGoogle Scholar
  94. Shiftan Y (2008) The use of activity-based modeling to analyze the effect of land-use policies on travel behavior. Ann Reg Sci 42:79–97CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  95. Singh YJ, Fard P, Zuidgeest M, Brussel M, Mv Maarseveen (2014) Measuring transit oriented development: a spatial multi criteria assessment approach for the City Region Arnhem and Nijmegen. J Transp Geogr 35:130–143. doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2014.01.014 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  96. Smith JW, Floyd MF (2013) The urban growth machine, central place theory and access to open space. City Cult Soc 4:87–98. doi: 10.1016/j.ccs.2013.03.002 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  97. Solesbury, W (2013) Policy in urban planning: structure plans, programmes and local plans, vol 8. ElsevierGoogle Scholar
  98. Son H (2013) Alternative future scenarios for South Korea in 2030. Futures 52:27–41. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2013.06.005 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  99. Song Y, Ding C, Knaap G (2006) Envisioning Beijing 2020 through sketches of urban scenarios. Habitat Int 30:1018–1034. doi: 10.1016/j.habitatint.2005.10.006 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  100. Stead D, Banister D (2003) Transport policy scenario-building. Transp Plan Technol 26:513–536. doi: 10.1080/0308106032000167382 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  101. Storch H, Downes NK (2011) A scenario-based approach to assess Ho Chi Minh City’s urban development strategies against the impact of climate change. Cities 28:517–526. doi: 10.1016/j.cities.2011.07.002 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  102. Sung H, Oh J-T (2011) Transit-oriented development in a high-density city: identifying its association with transit ridership in Seoul, Korea. Cities 28:70–82. doi: 10.1016/j.cities.2010.09.004 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  103. Sushinsky JR, Rhodes JR, Possingham HP, Gill TK, Fuller RA (2013) How should we grow cities to minimize their biodiversity impacts? Glob Change Biol 19:401–410. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12055 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  104. Thapa RB, Murayama Y (2012) Scenario-based urban growth allocation in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. Landsc Urban Plan 105:140–148. doi: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2011.12.007 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  105. Thorne JH, Santos MJ, Bjorkman JH (2013) Regional assessment of urban impacts on landcover and open space finds a smart urban growth policy performs little better than business as usual. PLoS ONE. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0065258 Google Scholar
  106. Tian G, Qiao Z (2014) Modeling urban expansion policy scenarios using an agent-based approach for Guangzhou Metropolitan Region of China. Ecol Soc. doi: 10.5751/ES-06909-190352 Google Scholar
  107. Timmermans H (2006) Modelling land use and transportation dynamics: methodological issues, state of the art, and applications in developing countries. Discussion Paper SeriesGoogle Scholar
  108. Torrens PM (2000) How land-use-transportation models work. CASA Working Paper 29Google Scholar
  109. Vacík E, Fotr J, Spacek M, Soucek I (2014) Scenarios and their application in strategic planning. E+M Ekon Manag 3:118–135Google Scholar
  110. Verburg PH, Rounsevell MDA, Veldkamp A (2006) Scenario-based studies of future land use in Europe. Agric Ecosyst Environ 114:1–6. doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2005.11.023 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  111. Vermeiren K, Van Rompaey A, Loopmans M, Serwajja E, Mukwaya P (2012) Urban growth of Kampala, Uganda: pattern analysis and scenario development. Landsc Urban Plan 106:199–206. doi: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2012.03.006 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  112. Villarreal ML, Norman LM, Boykin KG, Wallace CSA (2013) Biodiversity losses and conservation trade-offs: assessing future urban growth scenarios for a North American trade corridor. Int J Biodivers Sci Ecosyst Serv Manag 9:90–103. doi: 10.1080/21513732.2013.770800 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  113. Von Wirth T, Wissen Hayek U, Kunze A, Neuenschwander N, Stauffacher M, Scholz RW (2014) Identifying urban transformation dynamics: Functional use of scenario techniques to integrate knowledge from science and practice. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 89:115–130. CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  114. Waddell P (2002) UrbanSim: modeling urban development for land use, transportation, and environmental planning. Am Plan Assoc J Am Plan Assoc 68:297–314CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  115. Walz A, Lardelli C, Behrendt H, Grêt-Regamey A, Lundström C, Kytzia S, Bebi P (2007) Participatory scenario analysis for integrated regional modelling. Landsc Urban Plan 81:114–131. doi: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2006.11.001 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  116. Wang L, Waddell P, Outwater M (2011) Incremental integration of land use and activity-based travel modeling. Transp Res Rec J Transp Res Board 2255:1–10. doi: 10.3141/2255-01 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  117. Wegener M (2004) Overview of land-use transport models. Handb Transp Geogr Spat Syst 5:127–146CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  118. Wheeler SM, Tomuta M, Haden VR, Jackson LE (2013) The impacts of alternative patterns of urbanization on greenhouse gas emissions in an agricultural county. J Urbanism: Int Res Placemaking Urban Sustain 6:213–235. doi: 10.1080/17549175.2013.777356 Google Scholar
  119. Wegener M (2014) Land-use transport interaction models. In: Fischer MM, Nijkamp P (eds) Handbook of regional science. Springer, Berlin, pp 741–758. doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-23430-9_41 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  120. Wu X, Hu Y, He H, Xi F, Bu R (2010) Study on forecast scenarios for simulation of future urban growth in Shenyang City based on SLEUTH model. Geospat Inf Sci 13:32–39. doi: 10.1007/s11806-010-0155-7 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  121. Yigitcanlar T, Kamruzzaman M (2014) Investigating the interplay between transport, land use and the environment: a review of the literature. Int J Environ Sci Technol 11:2121–2132. doi: 10.1007/s13762-014-0691-z CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  122. Yigitcanlar T, Kamruzzaman M (2015) Planning, development and management of sustainable cities: a commentary from the guest editors. Sustainability 7:14677–14688. doi: 10.3390/su71114677 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  123. Yigitcanlar T, Teriman S (2015) Rethinking sustainable urban development: towards an integrated planning and development process. Int J Environ Sci Technol 12:341–352. doi: 10.1007/s13762-013-0491-x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  124. Yigitcanlar T, Dodson J, Gleeson B, Sipe N (2007) Travel self-containment in master planned estates: analysis of recent Australian trends. Urban Policy Res 25:129–149. doi: 10.1080/08111140701255823 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  125. Zhang Q, Ban Y, Liu J, Hu Y (2011) Simulation and analysis of urban growth scenarios for the Greater Shanghai Area, China. Comput Environ Urban Syst 35:126–139. doi: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2010.12.002 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  126. Zhang H, Jin X, Wang L, Zhou Y, Shu B (2015) Multi-agent based modeling of spatiotemporal dynamical urban growth in developing countries: simulating future scenarios of Lianyungang city, China. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 29:63–78. doi: 10.1007/s00477-014-0942-z CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Islamic Azad University (IAU) 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.School of Civil Engineering and Built Environment, Science and Engineering FacultyQueensland University of Technology (QUT)BrisbaneAustralia

Personalised recommendations