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Atmospheric blocking anomalies as the synoptic precursors prior to the induced earthquakes: a new climatic conceptual model

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Abstract

Blocking as an interruption of the climatological storm tracks means an extreme disturbance in the synoptic scale of atmospheric circulation. In this study, we aimed to describe the main role of atmospheric blocking on the earthquake prediction in the southern Iran. We gathered the subjective evidences of a block generation during April 5–9, 2013, which was clearly identified by anomalous data of geopotential height, air temperature, vertical velocity, rainfall rate and latent heat flux. Analysis of geopotential heights at the 500 and 300 hPa levels revealed that there was a dipole split-flow block with associated of a remarkable low-pressure anomaly (−76 m), which has established over southern Iran during April 5–9, 2013. This low pressure into three temporal sequences has influenced three epicenters of upcoming earthquake swarms in south parts of Iran during April and May 2013. Hence, we detected an atmospheric–lithospheric cycle as a climatic conceptual model that describes the chain of the blocking-associated rainfall, preceding rainfall-triggered seismic stress, cyclogenesis, thunderstorm and subsequent stress-induced seismicity. We claimed that the blocking-associated anomalies together with the persistence of low pressure could be the earthquake precursors within 3–33 days before the main seismic shocks in Iran.

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Notes

  1. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (http://www.noaa.gov).

  2. National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

  3. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (http://www.nasa.gov).

  4. Geospatial Interactive Online Visualization and Analysis Infrastructure (Giovanni) is a Web-based application developed by Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) that provides an intuitive way to visualize, analyze, and access of Earth science remote sensing data.

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Acknowledgments

We wish to acknowledge the NASA/Giovanni and NOAA/NCEP on web data-centers for transmission of reanalysis data. We are very grateful to four anonymous reviewers for their technical recommendations and practical interpretations. We like to thank Mrs. Somayeh Rezayi for data preparation.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Physical Geography and Climatology, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

    M. R. Mansouri Daneshvar, T. Tavousi & M. Khosravi

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  1. M. R. Mansouri Daneshvar
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  2. T. Tavousi
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  3. M. Khosravi
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Correspondence to M. R. Mansouri Daneshvar.

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Mansouri Daneshvar, M.R., Tavousi, T. & Khosravi, M. Atmospheric blocking anomalies as the synoptic precursors prior to the induced earthquakes: a new climatic conceptual model. Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol. 12, 1705–1718 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-014-0731-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-014-0731-8

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