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Synoptic detection of the short-term atmospheric precursors prior to a major earthquake in the Middle East, North Saravan M 7.8 earthquake, SE Iran

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Abstract

At the present study, we applied a synoptic prospect to the analysis of the short-term atmospheric precursors that occurred prior to a major earthquake. The North Saravan M 7.8 earthquake on April 16, 2013 was the first major recorded earthquake in the Middle East for the past 40 years. We compiled the eight atmospheric variables during March, April, and May of 2013 by using NASA/Giovanni and NOAA/NCEP data. According to the anomaly detection of variables, we determined the sudden increasing anomalies for surface-specific humidity, surface-latent heat flux, and surface-wind velocity on April 8–9, of 2013, 6–7 days prior to the earthquake. After the O3 and NO2 anomalous records and long-term anomaly of pressure levels, we observed the abnormal cloud fractions generated due to a severe greenhouse effect and a violent low geopotential height. Based on satellite observations as obtained from MODIS and Meteosat data, we exposed the local-waved shape of low clouds and circular pattern of high clouds in the synoptic scale, respectively. We believed the greenhouse effect plays a main role in triggering the chain of increased anomalous atmospheric variations, ascending air turbulence, and abnormal cloud circulation 1 week prior to the M 7.8 earthquake. Over the results, we propose to use the continuous monitoring of greenhouse and reactive gasses release, e.g., O3, CH4, NO2, SO2, etc. as the motive precursor of earthquake precursor’s chain, to detection of possible major earthquakes in the active fault region of the Makran subduction zone.

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Notes

  1. National Aeronautics and Space Administration

  2. Geospatial Interactive Online Visualization and Analysis Infrastructure (Giovanni) is a web-based application developed by Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) that provides an intuitive way to visualize, analyze, and access Earth science remote sensing data.

  3. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

  4. National Centers for Environmental Prediction

  5. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

  6. Polar–Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite

  7. Indian Ocean Data Coverage Imagery

  8. Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite

  9. Taftan is among the active Makran volcanic belt and was formed by subduction of the Oman oceanic lithosphere underneath the continental Eurasia plate (Biabangard and Moradian 2008). The Taftan volcano is a calc–alkaline type, and the magma, which generated it, is the result of a compressive regime (Berberian and King 1981). The main volcanic activity belongs to the Neogene compressional phase but the subduction probably is initiated in the Paleocene (Platt et al. 1988) which associated tectonism has been triggering volcanism and magmatic events. Taftan volcano is pointed as a strongly eroded andesitic stratovolcano in the Global Volcanism Program via (http://www.volcano.si.edu), which is hosted by the National Museum of Natural History, USA.

  10. Hierarchical Data Format

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Acknowledgments

We wish to acknowledge the NASA/Giovanni and NOAA/NCEP on web data centers for transmission of reanalysis data. We like to thank Mrs. Somayeh Rezayi for data preparation. Thanks also to one anonymous reviewer for suggestions on data interpretations.

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  1. Department of Physical Geography and Climatology, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

    Mohammad Reza Mansouri Daneshvar, Taghi Tavousi & Mahmood Khosravi

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  1. Mohammad Reza Mansouri Daneshvar
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Correspondence to Mohammad Reza Mansouri Daneshvar.

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Mansouri Daneshvar, M.R., Tavousi, T. & Khosravi, M. Synoptic detection of the short-term atmospheric precursors prior to a major earthquake in the Middle East, North Saravan M 7.8 earthquake, SE Iran. Air Qual Atmos Health 7, 29–39 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11869-013-0214-y

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