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The Emergence and Decline of Southern Baptist Congregations in a Southeastern County, 1784–2011: An Ecological Analysis

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Review of Religious Research

Abstract

Studies of the growth and decline of religious organizations tend to focus on the ability of American religious institutions to adapt within an open market system, but theories of adaptation may overstate the ability of organizations to respond to changes in their environment. Theories of selection, on the other hand, emphasize the role environmental forces play in organizational growth and decline. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the usefulness of an ecological theory of selection for modeling growth and decline in a population of religious organizations. To test this model, I use historical data on a population of Southern Baptist congregations in the southeastern United States from 1784 to 2011. My analyses indicate that the processes of denominational growth and decline are consistent with the expectations of ecological theories of selection.

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Notes

  1. Although the information described here is publicly available through the SBHLA, the data and analyses for this paper are part of a larger project including qualitative interviews with the members and clergy of multiple MCBA congregations. For this reason, Mill Creek Baptist Association and Adams County are pseudonyms per the guidelines of my university’s Institutional Review Board.

  2. One example is the case of Dr. Molly Marshall-Green. In 1988, the Seminary’s Board of Trustees tried to block the promotion of Marshall-Green because her universalist theology was considered a threat to the conservative Convention’s commitment to missions, but Marshall-Green was ultimately granted tenure under moderate President Roy Honeycutt. Following the appointment of Albert Mohler in 1993, however, Marshall-Green was forced to resign (Leonard 2005).

  3. Models estimating the effect of church membership on organizational mortality without the population variable (not shown) are consistent with the models showing the effect of congregations’ religious market share on organizational morality.

  4. Early MCBA annuals omit potentially important predictors of organizational mortality among congregations like annual receipts (available beginning in 1875) and average weekly attendance (available beginning in 2009); it is not possible to estimate an accurate model of density dependence using these years (1875–2011 or 2009–2011) due to left censorship of the models.

  5. The odds of failure are calculated using the formula 1 − exp(− 0.03).

  6. The odds of failure are calculated using the formula 1 − exp(− 0.66).

  7. The odds of failure are calculated using the formulas: 1 − exp(− 0.70), 1 − exp(− 1.49), and 1 − exp(− 2.20).

  8. The differences between 2 and 15 years and 2 and 16 or more years are not statistically significant.

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Acknowledgements

I would like to thank David Smilde, Linda Renzulli, and Penny Edgell for their helpful comments on earlier drafts of this manuscript. I would also like to thank Bill Sumners of the Southern Baptist Historical Library and Archives in Nashville, TN for his help with the data collection. Data collection for this project was supported by a Lynn E. May Study Grant from the Southern Baptist Historical Library and Archives.

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  1. Department of Sociology, Anthropology, Social Work, and Criminal Justice, Oakland University, 371 Varner Drive, Rochester, MI, 48309-4485, USA

    Matthew May

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May, M. The Emergence and Decline of Southern Baptist Congregations in a Southeastern County, 1784–2011: An Ecological Analysis. Rev Relig Res 60, 455–475 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13644-018-0344-7

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