Projecting demand for mineral-based critical materials in the energy transition for electricity

Abstract

Several large scenario exercises in the last years present decarbonizing transitional energy pathways to 2050 and beyond. This changing energy landscape toward net zero is new territory to explore but is expected to be more intensive in mineral based materials than the current system. Mapping this territory and understanding the critical material needs to support the transition are essential for demanders and suppliers as well as policy makers seeking to orchestrate the transition. Our contribution is to provide such decision makers for electricity markets with a transparent tool that can be easily understood and modified as our transitional knowledge improves. In this tool, we take the International Energy Agency’s conservative Beyond Two Degrees scenario, which projects renewable energy penetration for 15 electricity technologies, supplemented by Bloomberg’s Electrical Vehicle Outlook. Coupling these electricity projections with estimates of material use per GW of new capacity, we estimate resulting needs for 33 materials through 2050. Assuming constant material intensities and recycle rates, our model finds dramatic increases in most included materials from 2021 to 2050. The total projected tonnage increases in materials used for the transition is 294% with a compounded average annual growth rate of 4.8%. However, there is wide heterogeneity across materials (from slightly negative for tungsten to nearly 1300% for lithium). Projected 2050 sales vary from less than 30 tonnes for hafnium and yttrium (with quantity demanded growth of − 4.8% from 2021 to 2050) to more than 17 million tonnes for steel (with growth of 291%) and aluminum (growth 419%). At 2021 prices, 2050 sales revenue varies from less than a million dollars for boron (growth of 164%) to more than $42 billion for aluminum (growth 419%), nickel (growth of 279%), and steel (growth of 291%).