Abstract
Best estimate probabilities of the incidence of disability are a cornerstone of product development and the control cycle in contemporary life insurance practice. The identification of occupational classes with homogeneous risk profiles is of special interest and tends to be addressed by what are essentially heuristic approaches. This paper looks at the applicability of alternative statistics based methods and suggests the application of tree-based methods to disability data. The interdependencies of influence variables and their impact as risk drivers for disability probabilities are studied. The paper assumes some familiarity with tree-based methods, ideally knowledge of the companion article Olbricht [Eur Actuar J 2:129–147, (2012)].
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Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank Cathal Rabbitte for checking the English and for suggesting a number of stylistic improvements and the organizers of the ‘DAV-Herbsttagung 2010’ for the invitation to present part of the material of this paper there. They would also like to thank the participants of the data monitoring pool workshops for the productive and fruitful cooperation. The authors are also grateful to an associate editor and two reviewers for very useful and constructive comments and suggestions.
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Bauer, M., Krüger, R. & Olbricht, W. Tree-based methods: an application to disability probabilities. Eur. Actuar. J. 3, 491–513 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13385-013-0081-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13385-013-0081-9