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Detecting and attributing the effect of climate change on the changes in the distribution of Qinghai-Tibet plateau large mammal species over the past 50 years

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Abstract

The effects of prior climate change on large mammal distributions are uncertain. We evaluated the relationship between the changes in the distribution of Qinghai-Tibet plateau large mammals and climate change over the past 50 years and examined whether these changes can be attributed to climate change in China. Long-term distribution records of mammal species, grey relational analyses, the fuzzy-set classification technique, the consistency index, and attribution methods were used. Over the past 50 years, the mammal distributions have primarily shifted eastward or westward, and most of these changes are correlated with the thermal index. In response to climate change over the past years, the distribution boundary and the distribution center of particular species have changed and have exhibited fluctuations. The observed and predicted changes in the distributions were highly consistent for certain species. The changes in the southern limit, western limit, or center latitude of the distribution of some mammal species can be attributed to climate change.

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Acknowledgments

The work described in this paper was supported by a project of the National Science and Technology Support Program of China (2012BAC19B06). We would like to thank those who provided a helpful discussion of the ideas presented in this paper. Instructive comments from three anonymous reviewers greatly improved this manuscript. Many thanks are given to Pr. Shaohong Wu, Dr Tao Pan, and Dr Jie Pan for providing climate dates and to Dr. Qiaofu Zhou for ArcGIS mapping.

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  1. The Center for Climate Change, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, No. 8 Da Yang Fang, Anwai, Beiyuan, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China, 100012

    Jianguo Wu

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  1. Jianguo Wu
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Correspondence to Jianguo Wu.

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Communicated by: Karol Zub

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Wu, J. Detecting and attributing the effect of climate change on the changes in the distribution of Qinghai-Tibet plateau large mammal species over the past 50 years. Mamm Res 60, 353–364 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13364-015-0235-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13364-015-0235-z

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