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Potential impacts of climate change on the distributions and diversity patterns of European mammals

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Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an increase in global temperatures of between 1.4°C and 5.8°C during the 21st century, as a result of elevated CO2 levels. Using bioclimatic envelope models, we evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the distributions and species richness of 120 native terrestrial non-volant European mammals under two of IPCC’s future climatic scenarios. Assuming unlimited and no migration, respectively, our model predicts that 1% or 5–9% of European mammals risk extinction, while 32–46% or 70–78% may be severely threatened (lose > 30% of their current distribution) under the two scenarios. Under the no migration assumption endemic species were predicted to be strongly negatively affected by future climatic changes, while widely distributed species would be more mildly affected. Finally, potential mammalian species richness is predicted to become dramatically reduced in the Mediterranean region but increase towards the northeast and for higher elevations. Bioclimatic envelope models do not account for non-climatic factors such as land-use, biotic interactions, human interference, dispersal or history, and our results should therefore be seen as first approximations of the potential magnitude of future climatic changes.

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Abbreviations

IPCC:

Intergovernmental panel on climate change

CCSR:

Change in climatically suitable range

GDD:

Growing degree days

PET:

Potential evapotranspiration

ROC:

Receiver operating characteristic

AUC:

Area under the curve

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank A. J. Mitchell-Jones for providing us with the digital mammal distribution data, and the Danish Natural Science Research Council for economic support (grant #21-04-0346 to JCS and grant #21-03-0221 supporting IL and CR). Additional thanks to Tom S. Romdal for comments on earlier versions of the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Macroecology, Institute of Biology, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, Copenhagen East, 2100, Denmark

    Irina Levinsky & Carsten Rahbek

  2. Department of Wildlife Ecology and Biodiversity, National Environmental Research Institute, University of Aarhus, Kalø, Grenaavej 12, Ronde, 8410, Denmark

    Flemming Skov

  3. Department of Biological Sciences, University of Aarhus, Ny Munkegade, Bygn. 1540, Universitetsparken, Aarhus C, 8000, Denmark

    Jens-Christian Svenning

Authors
  1. Irina Levinsky
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  2. Flemming Skov
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  3. Jens-Christian Svenning
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  4. Carsten Rahbek
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Correspondence to Irina Levinsky.

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Levinsky, I., Skov, F., Svenning, JC. et al. Potential impacts of climate change on the distributions and diversity patterns of European mammals. Biodivers Conserv 16, 3803–3816 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-007-9181-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-007-9181-7

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