Abstract
An extreme and persistent heat wave event hit Missouri in summer 2012. Current operational forecast models failed to predict such an event at a long lead. The objective of the current study is to simulate this extreme event using a high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with eight combined physical (including longwave/shortwave radiation, microphysics, and planetary boundary layer) parameterization packages. Integrated for one month, the model successfully simulates the spatial pattern and temporal evolution of surface air temperature, compared to in-situ observations. The interesting feature is an oscillatory development of the surface air temperature, with a pronounced synoptic timescale. Such a temperature evolution is consistent with the local zonal wind fluctuation, implying the important role of anomalous temperature advection.
An overall skill score that combines the performance of 2-m air temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation fields is defined. The result shows that the combination of Thompson, Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for GCMs (RRTMG), and Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino level-3 (MYNN3) schemes presents the best WRF simulation. A further analysis of this best simulation shows that the model successfully reproduces the urban heat island (UHI) effect in the Kansas City Metropolitan Area with realistic diurnal variation of 2-m air temperature in the urban and nonurban areas with a larger UHI effect at nighttime.
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Acknowledgments
Comments provided by three anonymous reviewers are greatly appreciated. The computation is performed on the high-performance computing infrastructure provided by Research Computing Support Services and in part by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. CNS-1429294 at University of Missouri, Columbia MO.
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Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42088101), US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NA18OAR4310298), US National Science Foundation (IIA-1355406), China Scholarship Council (N201808320274), and Postgraduate Research and Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province of China (KYCX17_0874).
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Zhu, L., Sun, F. & Li, T. Simulations of a Persistent Heat Wave Event in Missouri in Summer 2012 Using a High-Resolution WRF Model. J Meteorol Res 36, 631–642 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-022-2039-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-022-2039-9