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A web-based novel model for predicting prognostic value in patients with invasive micropapillary carcinoma in breast cancer: a real-world data retrospective cohort study

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Abstract

Invasive micropapillary carcinoma (IMPC) accounts for less than 2% of all invasive breast cancers and usually associates with poor survival, so we investigated the prognostic factors for IMPC using a large population-based database and designed a web-based novel model. Clinicopathological prognostic factors were evaluated using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to evaluate the prognostic value of variables on the overall survival. A web-based nomogram was finally constructed to predict the survival probability. The model was validated in an external dataset. A web-based model, combined with age, radiation, clinical stage, and hormone receptor (HR) immunochemistry status four prognostic factors, was constructed. The C-index (0.714, 95% CI 0.683–0.741), calibration curves, and decision curves showed that this model was superior in prediction. By determining the cut-off values, high-risk group and low-risk group were divided. The Kaplan–Meier survival curves showed that these two groups had significantly different survival rates (P < 0.0001). The result of C-index, calibration curves, and Kaplan–Meier survival curves were consistent in the validation cohort. The novel nomogram with four risk factors resulted in accurate prognostic prediction for IMPC.

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Data availability

The permission has been acquired for accessing to the SEER Research data. The datasets from SEER database presented in this study can be found online. The original contributions presented in this study are included in the article/supplementary material. Further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding authors.

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Funding

This work was supported by double training project of the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University (Grant No. spy202114), Science and Technology Plan Project of Wenzhou (Grant No. Y20220867), and the National Student Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Program (Grant No. 202110343009).

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Author notes

  1. Endong Chen and Yuan Du have contributed equally to this work.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Breast Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China

    Endong Chen, Xiaoqu Hu, Quan Li & Xiaohua Zhang

  2. The 1St School of Medicine, School of Information and Engineering, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China

    Yuan Du, Yaowei Gan & Haoze Gao

  3. Department of Colorectal and Anal Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China

    Yingying Chen

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  1. Endong Chen
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Contributions

EC collected clinicopathological information and editing the manuscript. YD was responsible for analyzing the data of patients with IMPC and writing the draft. YC made contributions in data statistics. YG and HG collected resources and did investigation. XH reviewed and edited the manuscript. XZ and QL designed the research and reviewed the article. All authors have read and approved the submit of the article.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Quan Li or Xiaohua Zhang.

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All authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

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This study was approved by the Institutional Ethics Committee of the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University.

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Chen, E., Du, Y., Chen, Y. et al. A web-based novel model for predicting prognostic value in patients with invasive micropapillary carcinoma in breast cancer: a real-world data retrospective cohort study. Updates Surg 75, 1997–2004 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13304-023-01530-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13304-023-01530-7

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