Lake drying and livelihood dynamics in Lake Chad: Unravelling the mechanisms, contexts and responses

Case study location and characteristics

Data collection and analysis

Fieldwork was conducted in seven villages in mid-2013 and early 2014 using household surveys and semi-structured interviews stratified by farming (n = 80), fishing (n = 80) and pastoral (n = 80) livelihood groups; eight focus group discussions (FGDs) with different livelihood associations; and twenty key informant interviews (KIIs) with individuals with specialist knowledge on the study themes.² We used three types of non-probabilistic sampling (cf. McCubbin et al. 2015). Purposive sampling selected a cross section of households³ in each of the villages (based on income contributions from their predominant livelihood activities). Non-proportional quota sampling ensured that an equal number of households within each livelihood group was recruited. Snowball sampling involved requesting the bulamas, the village research partners and the LCBC to recommend participants for the FGDs and KIIs.

Household surveys and interviews included questions categorised into themes based on the livelihoods framework (Ellis 2000). Data were collected on present household characteristics, assets owned (or can access), livelihood activities, conditions affecting the household, livelihood drawbacks and opportunities experienced due to the changing state of the SLC and other contextual factors, and the diverse portfolio of response strategies. The fieldwork drew insights from the reasons given for changes in livelihood conditions and strategies. It situated the role of the SLC in the context of other conditions, including climate variability (Fig. 3) and violent conflicts (Fig. 4), in order to tease out the major mechanisms through which the Lake has impacted livelihoods. Data collection was conducted in Arabic, French and Hausa, and translated at the time of collection. The socio-cultural and religious nature of the villages permits only males to grant interviews (see Béné et al. 2003), therefore only responses from male household heads were recorded.

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Data from surveys, interviews and FGDs were supplemented with participant observation, village walks and secondary sources. Reflections on the data collected were undertaken jointly with key informants through continual dialogues/follow-up interviews. Data analysis was conducted at the household level and later aggregated at the livelihood group level. We assume the influences of the SLC to be homogenous within households, but heterogeneous across groups. Quantitative data were coded according to the broad categories in surveys for which statistical analyses were performed on the data in SPSS (v21). Qualitative data were coded in Microsoft Excel based on the broad themes from the survey and interview guides, after which qualitative thematic analysis was performed. We computed the average livelihoods diversification index across groups following Hahn et al. (2009) as the inverse of the number of livelihood activities + 1, reported by a household and aggregated across each group (higher values were assigned to groups with a lower number of livelihood activities). A stakeholder workshop convened in July 2015 at the Lake Chad Basin Commission headquarters, N’Djamena, enabled a robust triangulation and validation of our initial fieldwork findings.

Unpacking the influences of the Small Lake Chad on rural livelihoods

Local response strategies

Livelihood groups employ a broad range of strategies to cope with and adapt to the conditions affecting their livelihoods. Table 4 summarises groups’ adaptive strategies and Fig. 5 shows the seasonal water conditions (in response to monthly rainfall patterns—Fig. 6), including the cycle of local activities. Farmers’ response strategies are largely agronomic and technological. More than half of the farmers followed seasonal patterns in their practice of mixed cropping, crop rotation, timing of land preparation, and planting and harvesting of crops. As indigenous water and soil ‘engineers’, they dig tiny canals through which water encircled their plots and remained as water reserves within the soil to curtail the effects of drought. This allowed crops to grow into maturity. They exploited water in wells or harvested ground water along different flooded water channels during dry months (November to March). Better-off respondents constructed farm-based dams or ponds to store water. Less than half have used improved crop varieties as they were not available locally. When land and labour are available and accessible, most farmers practiced intensification and/or extensification. They referred to cultivating three or more crops in the same or new units of land within the year, although cultivation was largely not mechanised. Farmers that traded or practiced short-term migration did so for economic reasons (e.g. to access land, credit, markets or new wage labour); and those engaged in tree crop cultivation and the exploitation of seasonal floods did so to take advantage of environmental opportunities for better livelihood outcomes. When farmers go fishing, particularly along small water channels during floods, it is usually for subsistence consumption. They often do not engage in pastoral activities, but keep small animals such as fowl, sheep and goats, which are sold to supplement household income.

Table 4

Contextual adaptive responses employed to deal with conditions affecting livelihoods. Compiled from household survey in the southeast shore of the Small Lake Chad

Adaptive responsesa	Livelihood group
	Farmers	Fishermen	Pastoralists
Agronomic-related	Changes in timing of land preparation, including planting and harvest dates Use of improved crop varieties when available (~45 % had access) Expansion of cultivated areas, including mixed cropping and rotation cropping (intensification and extensification as more land became accessible)
Economic-related	~13 % trade in crops after peak farming activities are over	Migratory fishing in groups ~20 % practice recession cultivation and act in similar manner as farmers in terms of agronomic-related seasonal patterns of farming ~10 % trade in processed fish during low fishing periods	Collective livestock grazing and seasonal migration ~13 % cultivate crops when land is accessible
Environment-related	Afforestation: ~21 % plant trees usually around the homesteadb Exploitation of seasonal floods near the Lake is common	~12 % identified seasonal floods as suitable for increasing fish yield	~16 % often culled disease-infected animals ~8 % deliberately decrease herd size based on water and pasture availability
Technology-related	Ground water harvesting and storage of water in wells is common ~8 % construct small dams/ponds in farmland ~38 % can access weather information	~10 % cited using water from well occasionally for drinking Aspire better fish traps ~64 % use weather forecast	Well water is a backup against severe droughts; ~20 % harvest water along ground water channels ~33 % can access weather information

^aThe adaptive responses identified by respondents have been categorised into four here as agronomic (related largely to land and crop cultivations), economic (adjustments in behaviours to tackle the effects of low productivity), environmental (modifications in order to exploit the benefits of environmental changes either by tree planting, herd size reduction or exploiting seasonal floods), and technological (use of elements of local techniques in anticipation of future changes). A mix of strategies is common around the SLC

^bTree crops planted are mostly mangoes, banana, apple, cashew and orange trees—those planted on farmlands have their lower branches pruned regularly to enable minimal penetration of sun rays in order to help soils retain water and to prevent crops from drying out

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Most fishermen fish in groups of two or more whilst exploiting the seasonal floods, a form of environmental advantage that allows for increase in fish yield. As various species (Clarias gariepinus—catfish, Tilapiine cichlids—tilapia, and Alestes baremoze—freshwater sardine) are caught, when the fish are tiny, fishers either created or accessed markets for tiny fish. As they live on islands and remote temporary camps close to the Lake, they fish within a short distance of their homes during the rising flood seasons, travelling far away when the floods recede. Most camps are evacuated during flood-recession periods, and fishers sometimes farm the ‘new’ lands within the camps. Almost all surveyed fishing households sold either smoked, dried, fried or fresh fish. Fishermen often desire better fishing tools, including safe and fast moving boats, but few can afford these. They can access weather information better than the two other livelihood groups largely because they are more concerned about water temperatures and wave/wind movements. Around the SLC, annual and long-term fish catch is difficult to estimate due to the large number of artisanal fishermen who do not keep records and the limited capacity of institutions and government agencies to collect and store fish catch data.

FGDs with pastoralists revealed that herders’ adaptive strategies address several challenges, including issues of sick animals and conflicts with farmers when animals stray into farmlands. Pastoralists maintain a specific herd size based on what they can manage or afford per annum, and also considering the availability of water and pasture around the SLC. Average cattle herd sizes are 53.65 ± 17.66 (ranging from 20 to 81 cattle). Camels, donkeys, horses, sheep and goats are herded too, but cattle remain the social identity and represent economic status amongst the nomads. As pastoralists’ income is largely from livestock-related activities, they utilise their social ties to identify favourable grasslands as they migrate seasonally in the surrounding SLC. Water storage in wells along several homesteads serves their water needs in dry seasons when the SLC is not close by. They camp around villages and forest woodlands, returning to the Lake areas during the dry season when they can ascertain that the grasslands and pastures are productive. Some respondents stated that when cows have enough grasses and water, they are able to produce 2–5 litres of milk per day which can add to household income.

Mechanisms shaping the Lake’s influences on rural livelihoods

The Chadian shore holds a relatively large portion of the basin’s remaining open waters, and consequently has continued to create spaces for frequent trading and interactions amongst migrants of diverse ethnic groups (LCBC 2014). However, our findings show this advantage is yet to translate into better livelihoods for local people in the Hadjer-Lamis Lake Chad area. Farmers are burdened by low harvests despite that the SLC allows a combination of irrigation, flood-recession and rain-fed cultivation. Opportunities for seasonal mobility exploited by pastoralists have often pitched them against other resource users as aggression over limited supplies of water and grasslands intensifies. Fishermen exploit various water bodies seasonally, yet increased fishing activities have not led to increased catches. FAO (2012) reported a decrease from 220 000 tonnes of fish in the 1960s to about 100 000 tonnes in 2000. Recent annual yields are placed at 50 000 to 60 000 tonnes (Murray 2007). Similarly, low outputs have been reported for crops (e.g. sorghum declined from 328 000 tonnes to about 180 000 tonnes between the late 1960s and the years following 2010) and livestock—declining at nearly 2 % per year since the 1960s (Ovie and Emma 2012; Mekonnen 2016).

There is strong evidence that when households lack important livelihood assets, especially human, financial and social capitals, changes in environmental variables (affecting natural capital) shape the processes of household decision making, constraining livelihood options (de Sherbinin et al. 2008; Musoke and Boon 2012). Locals have diverse socio-economics needs which existing asset portfolios, including the changing Lake water system, cannot satisfy. Several livelihood groups were unable to secure enough income to cover basic materials for a good life. Although our findings indicate that the provisioning services of the SLC waters created a range of livelihoods drawbacks and opportunities, the major mechanisms that shaped these stem from the: (1) way different livelihood groups are inflexibly tied to water-dependent activities, (2) tendency to focus on one primary livelihood activity due to limited opportunities outside agriculture (restricting diversification and asset accumulation), (3) influx of the mixed ethnic migrants, (4) manner in which the Lake provides spaces for different terrorist activities and violent conflicts, and (5) limited village infrastructure.

The shrinking of the SLC rarely affects livelihood groups directly. Asset holdings derived from unstable water-based activities are a medium through which water depletion influences livelihoods. The tendency to specialise in one primary activity for survival made such activity the delivery agent of many of the impacts of SLC water-level fluctuations for the different livelihood groups. This resonates with observations by Kafumbata et al. (2014) for Lakes Chilwa and Naivasha in Malawi and Kenya, respectively. Aggression and contestation amongst the mix of migrant ethnic groups, including the role seasonality plays in shaping social interactions and the scramble for scarce resources, offer explanatory power in understanding the influences of the SLC on livelihood groups. The evidence presented demonstrates how sources of livelihood drawbacks can become more obvious in a setting where lake depletion opens up remote spaces for inter-group clashes and other activities that undermine human security (see Taguem Fah 2007; Ifabiyi 2013). Scarce local infrastructure, for example, local markets, weaken trade networks and prevent people from earning sufficient income from the sale of agricultural produce. Lack of amenities, as reported by several participants and evident in much of the Hadjer-lamis region, presents another medium through which the influence of the Lake’s depletion is experienced. Sarch (2001) has argued that governments often display unwillingness to invest in infrastructural development at lakeshore locations whose future is uncertain or whose jurisdiction is unclear. This is particularly the case on islands where local people use the Nigerian currency, yet they are located within the Chadian shores where the Central African CFA franc is the common medium of exchange.

Where does the Small Lake Chad fit amongst other stressors?

Resource poor locations are constrained by multiple stressors (Tschakert 2007). Climate, conflict and governance issues, identified by the participants as key interacting stressors affecting people’s livelihoods, were long a concern in the Lake region (pers. comm with a security guard, Guitte, July 2013). To demonstrate where the SLC fits amongst these stressors, we used a disaggregative approach (cf. Leauthaud et al. 2013). This showed that the SLC has become interwoven and deeply rooted in the fabric of local livelihood contexts that influence the assets of resource-dependent households. Analysis of the Lake’s influence points to its contributory role in driving vulnerability to climate and non-climatic conditions through the water channel (Ovie and Emma 2012). In particular, it has been argued that the underlying conditions fuelling social and political instability, including climate variability are shaped by the SLC (Onuoha 2009; Lemoalle et al. 2012). For example, the Lake’s depletion constrains its ability to serve as a hydrological buffer against drought events in much of the dryland area. Weakened social ties due to struggles over limited water supplies, including limited income opportunities caused by unfavourable tax regimes on the open water fishing activities, point to some of the ways the SLC fits amongst the stressors influencing the development trajectories of lakeshore villages and islands.

Observations that water depletion represents a major channel through which much of the SLC roles fit into the context of other stresses are consistent with: Kreamer’s (2012) description of water shortages as a facilitator of tribal violence and cross-border terrorism; Ludwig et al.’s (2011) illustration of water scarcity in climate-conflict interactions in settings where socio-cultural and political structures are weak; and Tir and Stinnett’s (2012) argument for water governance challenges in situations where a water resource traverses national boundaries.

Are locally evolved responses suggestive of locally adapted solutions?

A range of local responses to survive the challenges posed by the changing Lake waters were identified. Locally evolved responses indicate how decisions based on seasonality and traditional predictive factors are predicated on the availability of capital assets. For example, better-off farmers who constructed small dams and ponds to store water were able to cultivate more crops on bigger land areas and remained productive across the seasons. This type of proactive response keeps livelihoods functioning, and enhances resilience against adverse water conditions (Ifejika Speranza et al. 2014). Because many adaptive options to environmental changes depend on using, combining or substituting assets in different ways (Reed et al. 2013), the low asset profiles of several households limited them to responses that are largely reactive and as a result, constrained capacities to create locally adapted solutions that both reduce poverty and enhance well-being. Basic materials were in short supply due to the decrease in water available for soil fertility and plant growth, including fishery and livestock productivity. This led to a sense of deprivation within local populations, especially as access to external support remains limited. With the added burden of fear of militant Islamists (Taguem Fah 2007) and the loosening of social cohesion, opportunities through which groups and households could enhance response strategies were blocked.

How seasonal patterns and water conditions might change in the future for locations in the Sahel region is unclear (Cook 2008). If local people experience difficulty in predicting the timing and cycle of hydrological changes, deciding when and how to adjust livelihood activities might become challenging. This could further undermine local livelihoods, reducing adaptive options. Negative changes in the wider social (e.g. conflict), economic (e.g. income levels) and political/institutional contexts will create additional burdens in ways that could broaden the mechanisms through which lake water depletion influences agricultural livelihoods.