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The prediction on the 2015/16 El Niño event from the perspective of FIO-ESM

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Abstract

Recently atmospheric and oceanic observations indicate the tropical Pacific is at the El Niño condition. However, it’s not clear whether this El Niño event of this year is comparable to the very strong one of 1997/98 which brought huge influence on the whole world. In this study, based on the Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter (EAKF) assimilation scheme and First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model (FIO-ESM), the assimilation system is setup, which can provide reasonable initial conditions for prediction. And the hindcast results suggest the skill of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction is comparable to other dynamical coupled models. Then the prediction for 2015/16 El Niño by using FIO-ESM is started from 1 November 2015. The ensemble results indicate that the 2015/16 El Niño will continue to be strong. By the end of 2015, the strongest strength is very like more than 2.0°C and the ensemble mean strength is 2.34°C, which indicates 2015/16 El Niño event will be very strong but slightly less than that of 1997/98 El Niño event (2.40°C) calculated relative a climatology based on the years 1992–2014. The prediction results also suggest 2015/16 El Niño event will be a transition to ENSO-neutral level in the early spring (FMA) 2016, and then may transfer to La Niña in summer 2016.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao, 266061, China

    Zhenya Song, Qi Shu, Ying Bao, Xunqiang Yin & Fangli Qiao

  2. Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266237, China

    Zhenya Song, Qi Shu, Ying Bao, Xunqiang Yin & Fangli Qiao

Authors
  1. Zhenya Song
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  2. Qi Shu
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  3. Ying Bao
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  4. Xunqiang Yin
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  5. Fangli Qiao
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Fangli Qiao.

Additional information

Foundation item: The National Natural Science Foundation of China-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers under contract No. U1406404; the Public Science and Technology Research Funds Projects of Ocean under contract Nos 201105019 and 201505013.

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Song, Z., Shu, Q., Bao, Y. et al. The prediction on the 2015/16 El Niño event from the perspective of FIO-ESM. Acta Oceanol. Sin. 34, 67–71 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13131-015-0787-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13131-015-0787-4

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