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Rural–urban disparities in spatiotemporal pattern of vulnerability to climate change: a study of Madhya Pradesh, India

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Abstract

This paper aims to assess the disparities in vulnerability to climate change among the rural and urban population by taking the case of Madhya Pradesh, the central state of India. Madhya Pradesh is highly exposed to climate change, as evident by the historical and projected changes in climatic parameters. The impacts of climate change vary as per the dependence of the population on natural resource-intensive sectors and the relative socioeconomic development. The higher disparities in population composition, livelihood, infrastructural access, and other socioeconomic characteristics among rural and urban populations can influence their relative vulnerability to climate change. In this context, this study tries to understand how the spatiotemporal pattern of vulnerability to climate change differs in the rural and urban areas in three decades (1991, 2001 and 2011), using two sub-indices viz. Composite Social Vulnerability Index (CSVI) and Climate Index (CI). The CSVI is a weighted average of the Socioeconomic Vulnerability Index and Infrastructural Vulnerability Index. The CSVI is a weighted average of the Socioeconomic Vulnerability Index and Infrastructural Vulnerability Index. The results indicate that rural areas possess more social vulnerability than urban areas and, thus, are more vulnerable to climate change. CSVI scores and score of its subindices have reduced over time for both rural and urban population. However, the overall climate vulnerability has slightly increased from 2001 to 2011 due to the increase in mean CI in 2011. The study points out more targeted interventions for livelihood diversification, education, and infrastructural facilities in rural areas, especially in tribal dominated districts, in the context of increased climate change exposure in recent decades.

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Data availability

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, upon reasonable request.

Notes

  1. Currently, Madhya Pradesh has 52 districts. The two districts (Agar Malwa & Shajapur) are formed after the latest round of population census ie. 2011.

  2. Methodology for calculating maximum and minimum temperature is available at http://data.icrisat.org/dld/src/crops.html.

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  1. School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Indore, Khandwa Road, Simrol, Madhya Pradesh, 453552, India

    Alinda George, Pritee Sharma & Kalandi Charan Pradhan

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Contributions

AG collected data and did the analysis. AG, PS and KP wrote the manuscript. AG and KP prepared the tables and AG prepared the figures. All authors reviewed the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Alinda George.

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Appendix

Appendix

See Tables 8, 9, 10, 11 and 12.

Table 8 Districts of Madhya Pradesh; Source: Census of India
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Table 9 Most vulnerable rural areas of districts in each index; Source: Prepared by authors
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Table 10 Most vulnerable urban areas of districts in each index; Source: Prepared by authors
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Table 11 Results of rural–urbanwise ANOVA analysis of all decades; Source: Prepared by authors
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Table 12 Results of ANOVA analysis of rural and urban indices of all decades; Source: Prepared by authors
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George, A., Sharma, P. & Pradhan, K.C. Rural–urban disparities in spatiotemporal pattern of vulnerability to climate change: a study of Madhya Pradesh, India. Environ Earth Sci 82, 588 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-023-11274-7

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