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Cross-sectoral projections of future land-cover change for the Upper Western Bug River catchment, Ukraine

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Abstract

Projections of future land-cover (LC) change are challenging because of the multitude of spatial and dynamic drivers involved, such as politics, economics, demographics, and the environment. This paper presents a combined qualitative and quantitative scenario approach for giving consistent projections of urban and rural land-cover change (LCC), considering both the demands of certain LC types, and their allocation. The approach has been implemented in the Upper Western Bug River catchment in Ukraine in the context of integrated water resource management. Special attention is paid to the identification of spatial and dynamic drivers of LCC, the scenario formulation and projection of the identified drivers, and the projections of alternative plausible LCC. The identification of spatial and dynamic drivers is based on the detection of retrospective LCC, statistical analysis of interrelations between LCC and drivers, and expert validation of transition rules. The scenario formulation and projection of the drivers involve storylines with inputs from expert interviews. The creation of future LC change projections followed four steps: suitability maps from retrospective LCC detection, expert validation, the future development of drivers, and the allocation of LCC. Results indicate demographic change and GDP development as dynamic drivers mainly influencing the LCC, as other studies have implied. Furthermore, there are spatial drivers influencing the local allocation such as the regional capital of Lviv, and they are shaped by, for example, environmental laws, distances to roads and settlements, slope, and soil fertility.

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Fig. 1

Source own design

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Source Schanze et al. (2012)

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Notes

  1. Therefore, the phrase “up to” is used, e.g. 0 to 200 m is presented as “up to 200 m”.

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Acknowledgements

The paper is based on work carried out under the research project “IWAS—International Water Alliance Saxony” (FKZ 02WM1028) which was being funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Chair of Environmental Development and Risk Management, Technische Universität Dresden, 01062, Dresden, Germany

    Cornelia Burmeister & Jochen Schanze

  2. Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development, Weberplatz 1, 01217, Dresden, Germany

    Jochen Schanze

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  1. Cornelia Burmeister
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  2. Jochen Schanze
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Correspondence to Cornelia Burmeister.

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Burmeister, C., Schanze, J. Cross-sectoral projections of future land-cover change for the Upper Western Bug River catchment, Ukraine. Environ Earth Sci 77, 194 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-018-7338-1

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