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Predictive uncertainty of peak outflow relations for landslides dam breach

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Abstract

Risk assessment development considering the failure of landslide dams often requires the estimation of peak outflow through the breach. The empirical equations based on data from case studies tend to be the first direct approach. This paper conducted an uncertainty analysis when these empirical relations were utilized to predict the peak outflow of a breached landslide dam. The results suggest that the relations derived from manmade dams or embankments typically overestimate the peak outflow about 1/5 to 3/4 of an order of magnitude; and the relations derived from the database of landslide dams have much smaller mean prediction errors and also exhibit broad uncertainty bands. Application of the uncertainly analysis was illustrated by the Tangjiashan landslide dammed lake, formed during 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In addition, the predicted results from Eq. 1 deduced herein were considered to be the reliable estimate of peak outflow through the breach of landslide dam.

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Acknowledgments

This work was financially supported by the Natural Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars (41302260); National Natural Science Foundation of China (41302260).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Geological Hazards on Three Gorges Reservoir Area, Ministry of Education, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, 443002, Hubei, China

    Chao Dang, Nana Chu & Yu Ding

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  1. Chao Dang
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  2. Nana Chu
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  3. Yu Ding
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Correspondence to Chao Dang.

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Dang, C., Chu, N. & Ding, Y. Predictive uncertainty of peak outflow relations for landslides dam breach. Environ Earth Sci 72, 4265–4271 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-014-3321-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-014-3321-7

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