Abstract
One of the best indicators for measuring and evaluating the performance of an organization in terms of project selection is to examine the degree of alignment of implemented projects with organizational strategies. On the other hand, the importance of this indicator is more vital for project-based organizations. The main purpose of this study is to provide a new analytical approach that allows organizations to have an accurate evaluation of their candidate projects. In other words, the method presented in this paper is a group decision-making process that, after receiving the knowledge of experts, provides comprehensive insight and analysis in the field of evaluation, analysis, and selection of appropriate projects. Evaluations in the proposed approach are based on two indicators of risk aversion and alignment of projects with organizational strategies. Also, with the aim of strengthening the method analytically, interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy (IVIF) numbers and simulation have been provided simultaneously. Meanwhile, a new approach to simulating IVIF numbers is introduced. In this method, the mutual effects of various organizational goals and project risks are evaluated by fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL). In the end, the scores obtained by these two indexes for each project are integrated. Next, projects are ranked based on their final index. The last aggregation method is used for problem-solving for its advantages. The use of IVIF numbers enhances the method’s performance in dealing with uncertainty. In addition to maximum project data utilization, the use of simulation will provide more suitable outputs for decision-making regarding projects. The application of the proposed model for project evaluation is described by employing a case study and by implementing the method in a manufacturing organization. According to the results, in addition to project evaluation and ranking, the organization is analyzed in terms of the efficiency of its research and development processes, strategy formulation and needs assessment.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Aramesh S, Mousavi SM, Mohagheghi V, Zavadskas EK, Antucheviciene J (2021) A soft computing approach based on critical chain for project planning and control in real-world applications with interval data. Appl Soft Comput 98:106915
Ardian A, Kumral M (2020) Incorporating stochastic correlations into mining project evaluation using the Jacobi process. Resour Policy 65:101558
Atanassov K, Gargov G (1989) Interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets. Fuzzy Sets Syst 31:343–349
Benamina M, Atmani B, Benbelkacem S (2018) Diabetes diagnosis by case-based reasoning and fuzzy logic. Int J Interact Multimedia Artif Intell 5(3):72–80
Charisis V, Hadjidimitriou S, Hadjileontiadis LJ (2022) FISEVAL-A novel project evaluation approach using fuzzy logic: the paradigm of the i-Treasures project. Expert Syst Appl 202:117260
Chen CT, Huang SF, Hung WZ (2018) Linguistic VIKOR method for project evaluation of ambient intelligence product. J Ambient Intell Human Comput. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12652-018-0889-x
Cheng CH, Liou JJ, Chiu CY (2017) A consistent fuzzy preference relations based ANP model for R&D project selection. Sustainability 9(8):1352
Chivulescu FA, Teodorescu S (2021) A fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making model for project selection. Chall Knowl Soc, pp 784–792. https://www.proquest.com/scholarly-journals/fuzzy-multi-criteria-decision-making-model/docview/2648265893/se-2
Dalalah D, Hayajneh M, Batieha F (2011) A fuzzy multi-criteria decision making model for supplier selection. Expert Syst Appl 38(7):8384–8391
Dorfeshan Y, Mousavi SM, Vahdani B (2022) A new analysis of critical paths in mega projects with interval type-2 fuzzy activities by considering time, cost, risk, quality, and safety factors. J Optim Ind Eng 15(1):145–160
Dreyer S, Egger A, Püschel L, Röglinger M (2022) Prioritising smart factory investments—a project portfolio selection approach. Int J Prod Res 60(3):999–1015
El bok G, Berrado A (2022) A data-driven project categorization process for portfolio selection. J Modell Manag 17(2):764–787. https://doi.org/10.1108/JM2-10-2020-0257
Garg H, Kumar K (2020) A novel exponential distance and its based TOPSIS method for interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets using connection number of SPA theory. Artif Intell Rev 53(1):595–624
Harrison KR, Elsayed SM, Weir T, Garanovich IL, Boswell SG, Sarker RA (2022) Solving a novel multi-divisional project portfolio selection and scheduling problem. Eng Appl Artif Intell 112:104771
Hashemi SM, Mousavi SM, Patoghi A (2021) A fuzzy multi-objective mathematical programming model for project management decisions considering quality and contractual reward and penalty costs in a project network. Arab J Sci Eng 46(2):1617–1629
Heravi G, Fathi M, Faeghi S (2017) Multi-criteria group decision-making method for optimal selection of sustainable industrial building options focused on petrochemical projects. J Clean Prod 142:2999–3013
Joshi D, Kumar S (2018) Improved accuracy function for interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets and its application to multi-attributes group decision making. Cybern Syst 49(1):64–76
Jugdev K, Müller R (2005) A retrospective look at our evolving understanding of project success. Proj Manag J 36(4):19–31
Kabir S, Papadopoulos Y (2018) A review of applications of fuzzy sets to safety and reliability engineering. Int J Approx Reason 100:29–55
Koca G, Yıldırım S (2021) Bibliometric analysis of DEMATEL method. Decis Mak Appl Manag Eng 4(1):85–103
Koçak S, İç YT, Atalay KD, Sert M, Dengiz B (2021) The development of a reviewer selection method: a multi-level hesitant fuzzy VIKOR and TOPSIS approaches. J Ambient Intell Human Comput. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12652-021-03466-5
Kudratova S, Huang X, Zhou X (2018) Sustainable project selection: optimal project selection considering sustainability under reinvestment strategy. J Clean Prod 203:469–481
Li H, Yao B, Yan X (2021) Data-driven public R&D project performance evaluation: results from China. Sustainability 13(13):7147
Liao H, Xu Z, Herrera-Viedma E, Herrera F (2018) Hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set and its application in decision making: a state-of-the-art survey. Int J Fuzzy Syst 20(7):2084–2110
Liu H, Burnap P, Alorainy W, Williams ML (2019) A fuzzy approach to text classification with two-stage training for ambiguous instances. IEEE Trans Comput Soc Syst 6(2):227–240
Ma J, Harstvedt JD, Jaradat R, Smith B (2020) Sustainability driven multi-criteria project portfolio selection under uncertain decision-making environment. Comput Ind Eng 140:106236
Mahmoudi A, Deng X, Javed SA, Yuan J (2021) Large-scale multiple criteria decision-making with missing values: project selection through TOPSIS-OPA. J Ambient Intell Humaniz Comput 12(10):9341–9362
Mahmoudi A, Abbasi M, Deng X (2022) A novel project portfolio selection framework towards organizational resilience: robust ordinal priority approach. Expert Syst Appl 188:116067
Mardani A, Hooker RE, Ozkul S, Yifan S, Nilashi M, Sabzi HZ, Fei GC (2019) Application of decision making and fuzzy sets theory to evaluate the healthcare and medical problems: a review of three decades of research with recent developments. Expert Syst Appl 137:202–231
Mirnezami SA, Mousavi SM, Mohagheghi V (2020) A new interval type-2 fuzzy approach for multi-scenario project cash flow assessment based on alternative queuing method and dependency structure matrix with a case study. Eng Appl Artif Intell 95:103815
Moghiseh H, Mousavi SM, Patoghi A (2019) A new project controlling approach based on earned value management and group decision-making process with triangular intuitionistic fuzzy sets. J Ind Syst Eng 12(3):177–195
Mohagheghi V, Mousavi SM (2019) A new framework for high-technology project evaluation and project portfolio selection based on Pythagorean fuzzy WASPAS, MOORA and mathematical modelling. Iran J Fuzzy Syst 16(6):89–106
Mohammed HJ (2021) The optimal project selection in portfolio management using fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making methodology. J Sustain Financ Invest. https://doi.org/10.1080/20430795.2021.1886551
Patoghi A, Mousavi SM (2021) A new approach for material ordering and multi-mode resource constraint project scheduling problem in a multi-site context under interval-valued fuzzy uncertainty. Technol Forecast Soc Change 173:121137
Patoghi A, Setak M (2018) Coordinating replenishment and marketing policies for non-instantaneous deteriorating items with imprecise deterioration free time and general deterioration and holding cost rates. Int J Inventory Res 5(1):38–59
Petrović I, Kankaraš M (2018) DEMATEL-AHP multi-criteria decision making model for the selection and evaluation of criteria for selecting an aircraft for the protection of air traffic. Decis Mak Appl Manag Eng 1(2):93–110
Qi C, Fourie A, Ma G, Tang X (2018) A hybrid method for improved stability prediction in construction projects: a case study of stope hangingwall stability. Appl Soft Comput 71:649–658
Ranjbar M, Nasiri MM, Torabi SA (2022) Multi-mode project portfolio selection and scheduling in a build-operate-transfer environment. Expert Syst Appl 189:116134
RezaHoseini A, Ghannadpour SF, Hemmati M (2020) A comprehensive mathematical model for resource-constrained multi-objective project portfolio selection and scheduling considering sustainability and projects splitting. J Clean Prod 269:122073
Salehi K (2015) A hybrid fuzzy MCDM approach for project selection problem. Decis Sci Lett 4(1):109–116
Tavana M, Khosrojerdi G, Mina H, Rahman A (2020) A new dynamic two-stage mathematical programming model under uncertainty for project evaluation and selection. Comput Ind Eng 149:106795
Turner JR (2009) The handbook of project-based management: leading strategic change in organizations. McGraw-Hill, New York
Vanhoucke M (2019) Tolerance limits for project control: an overview of different approaches. Comput Ind Eng 127:467–479
Wang Y, Shi Y (2020) Measuring the service quality of urban rail transit based on interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy model. KSCE J Civ Eng 24(2):647–656
Yazdi AK, Komijan AR, Wanke PF, Sardar S (2020) Oil project selection in Iran: a hybrid MADM approach in an uncertain environment. Appl Soft Comput 88:106066
Yuan Y, Chai H (2020) Knowledge fusion method based on fuzzy set theory. J Intell Fuzzy Syst 38(4):3971–3979
Zavadskas EK, Turskis Z, Vilutienė T, Lepkova N (2017) Integrated group fuzzy multi-criteria model: case of facilities management strategy selection. Expert Syst Appl 82:317–331
Zavadskas EK, Antucheviciene J, Kar S (2019) Multi-objective and multi-attribute optimization for sustainable development decision aiding. Sustainability 11(11):1–6
Zhou Q, Mo H, Deng Y (2020) A new divergence measure of Pythagorean fuzzy sets based on belief function and its application in medical diagnosis. Mathematics 8(1):142
Zindani D, Maity SR, Bhowmik S (2020) Interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy TODIM method based on Schweizer–Sklar power aggregation operators and their applications to group decision making. Soft Comput 24(18):14091–14133
Zindani D, Maity SR, Bhowmik S (2021) Complex interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy TODIM approach and its application to group decision making. J Ambient Intell Humaniz Comput 12(2):2079–2102
Zolfaghari S, Mousavi SM (2021) A novel mathematical programming model for multi-mode project portfolio selection and scheduling with flexible resources and due dates under interval-valued fuzzy random uncertainty. Expert Syst Appl 182:115207
Acknowledgements
The authors wish to sincerely thank several anonymous referees for their valuable comments and recommendations.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Davoudabadi, R., Mousavi, S.M. & Patoghi, A. A new fuzzy simulation approach for project evaluation based on concepts of risk, strategy, and group decision making with interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets. J Ambient Intell Human Comput 14, 8923–8941 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12652-022-04399-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12652-022-04399-3