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Sex Specific Global Burden of Osteoporosis in 204 Countries and Territories, from 1990 to 2030: An Age-Period-Cohort Modeling Study

  • Original Research
  • Published:
The journal of nutrition, health & aging

Abstract

Background

Osteoporosis is a highly prevalent disease with distinct sex pattern. We aimed to estimate the sex specific incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life (DALYs) years of osteoporosis between 1990 and 2019, with additional predictions from 2020 to 2034.

Methods

We collected osteoporosis disease burden data from the Global Burden of Disease study covering the years 1990 through 2019 in 204 countries and territories. The data included information on the number of incident cases of osteoporosis, DALYs, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) and age-standardized DALYs rates. Additionally, we performed an age-period-cohort analysis to forecast the burden of osteoporosis.

Results

The global number of incidence cases of osteoporosis, in 2019, reached 41.5 million cases. From 1990 to 2019, the low-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) region had the highest estimated annual percentage change in the world. Compared to males, female’s ASIR and ASPR were all about 1.5 times higher than males for the same years in the same SDI regions. The projected global total number of incidence cases for osteoporosis between 2030 and 2034 is estimated to reach 263.2 million (154.4 million for females and 108.8 for males). Additionally, the burden in terms of DALYs is predicted to be 128.7 million (with 78.4 million for females and 50.3 million for males).

Conclusion

The global burden of osteoporosis is still increasing, mainly observed in high SDI countries. Females bear a burden 1.5 times higher than males in terms of incidence and DALYs. Steps should be taken to reduce the osteoporosis burden, especially in high SDI countries.

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Availability of data and materials: The datasets generated and/or analyzed during the current study are available in the https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/, and no permissions were required to access the data.

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Acknowledgment: None

Funding

Funding: This work was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province (No. 20212BAB216051 to J.Z., No. 20212BAB216047 to P.Y.); the Jiangxi Province Thousands of Plans (No. jxsq2023201105 to P.Y.); and the Hengrui Diabetes Metabolism Research Fund (No. Z-2017-26-2202-4 to P.Y.); and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (nos. 82160371 to J.Z. and nos. 82100869 to P.Y., nos. 82100347 to X. L. no. 21866019), National High Technology Research and Development Program of Guangzhou (nos. 20180304001 and nos. 2019GZR110406004 to J. F-W), Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province (nos. 2022A1515010582 and nos. 202201011395 to X. and Science and Technology Projects in Guangzhou (nos. 202102010007 to J.F-W), China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Nos. 2021M703724).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Anesthesiology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, 1st Minde Road, Nanchang, Jiangxi, 330006, China

    Z. Zhu, J. Ma & Jing Zhang

  2. Department of Endocrinology Medicine, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, China

    P. Yu, Y. Wu, Y. Wu, Z. Tan & J. Ling

  3. Department of Cardiology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China

    W. Zhu

  4. Department of Cardiology, Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510080, China

    Xiao Liu

  5. Guangdong Province Key Laboratory of Arrhythmia and Electrophysiology, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China

    Xiao Liu

  6. Guangzhou Key Laboratory of Molecular Mechanism and Translation in Major Cardiovascular Disease, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Malignant Tumor Epigenetics and Gene Regulation, Guangdong-Hong Kong Joint Laboratory for RNA Medicine, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China

    Xiao Liu

Authors
  1. Z. Zhu
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  2. P. Yu
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  3. Y. Wu
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  9. W. Zhu
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  10. Xiao Liu
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Contributions

Author contribution: Z.C-Z: Methodology, Software, Formal Analysis, Data Curation, Writing - Original Draft. Methodology, Investigation, Data curation. Z.Q-T: Writing. Y.T-W: Methodology, Investigation. Y.F-W: Methodology, Investigation, Data curation. J.Y-M: Methodology, Investigation, J.T-L: Methodology, Data curation. P-Y: Methodology, Investigation. W.G-Z: Review & Editing. J-Z and X-L: Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing - Review & Editing, Supervision, Project administration, Funding acquisition.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Jing Zhang or Xiao Liu.

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Conflict interest: The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Zhu, Z., Yu, P., Wu, Y. et al. Sex Specific Global Burden of Osteoporosis in 204 Countries and Territories, from 1990 to 2030: An Age-Period-Cohort Modeling Study. J Nutr Health Aging 27, 767–774 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12603-023-1971-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12603-023-1971-4

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