Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Tackling gun violence: is systems thinking necessary?

  • Application Article
  • Published:
OPSEARCH Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Gun violence is a global epidemic claiming thousands of lives every year. In the United Stated alone, almost 25,000 lives are lost every year due to gun-inflicted suicides. In this paper, we argue for an inclusion of systems thinking methodologies in tackling gun violence. As a first step of an inductive reasoning approach, we illustrate the pitfalls of traditional reductionist methods, by analyzing open-source data collated in the United States by the Federal Bureau of Investigation. The specific goal of this exploratory risk analysis is estimating the probability of a police officer being feloniously killed during an incident. We explore the correlations between factors such as police department size and demographics with the probability of an officer being feloniously killed. Using similarity measures, we also benchmark the performance of police departments, to compare them to other similar sized departments. Our exploratory analyses indicate that a critical officer ratio of 5 officers per thousand population covered could lower the probability of police officers being feloniously killed. Moreover, the total number of female police officers, as a percentage of a department’s force, needs to be increased. Via this process of risk estimation, we identify various difficulties that confound traditional operational research methodologies, arguing for the inclusion of a systems thinking toolkit to tackle gun violence. In particular, dovetailing traditional OR with a soft systems methodology (SSM) may be needed to tackle gun violence effectively.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Low, H.: How Japan has almost eradicated gun crime. BBC news (2017)

  2. Biden, J.: Gun violence is an epidemic, April 8th, 2021 on CNBC and available on Youtube at www.youtube.com/watch?v=EaNVMTqfhh0 (downloaded October 4th, 2021)

  3. Linder, C.: Why Hundreds of Mathematicians Are Boycotting Predictive Policing. Popular Mechanics (2020). [online] Available at: https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/math/a32957375/mathematicians-boycottpredictive-policing/. Accessed 5 Mar 2021

  4. O’Neill, C.: Weapons of math destruction, Broadway books. ISBN: 978-0-553-41883-5 (2017)

  5. Anestis, M., Bandel, S.L., Butterworth, S.E., Bond, A.E., Daruwala, S.E., Bryan, C.J.: Suicide risk and firearm ownership and storage behavior in a large military sample. Psychiatry Res. 291, 113–277 (2020)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Almasy, S., Hamasaki, S.: Female shooter at YouTube headquarters identified, https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/03/us/youtube-hq-shooting/index.html, downloaded July 26, (2020)

  7. Carter, B.C.: Confronting the demographics of power: America’s sheriffs, Reflective democracy campaign. Downloaded from https://wholeads.us/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/reflectivedemocracy-americassheriffs-06.04.2020.pdf, July 27, (2020)

  8. Hill, E., Tiefenthäler, A., Triebert, C., Jordan, D., Willis, H., Stein, R.: How George Floyd was killed in police custody. The New York Times (2020)

  9. Bierie, D.M.: Assault of police. Crime Delinq. 63(8), 899–925 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1177/0011128715574977

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Bierie, D., Detar, P., Craun, S.: Firearm violence directed at police. Crime Delinq. 62(4), 501–524 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1177/0011128713498330

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund.: Causes of law enforcement deaths over the past decade (2002–2011). Retrieved from http://www.nleomf.org/facts/officer-fatalities-data/causes.html (2011a)

  12. National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund.: Firearms related incidents are the leading cause of officer fatalities in 2011. Retrieved from http:// www.nleomf.org/assets/pdfs/reports/2011-EOY-Report.pdf (2011b)

  13. Craun, S.W., Detar, P.J., Bierie, D.M.: Shots fired: Firearm discharges during fugitive apprehensions. Vict. Offenders 8, 56–69 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. James, N.: Body armor for law enforcement officers: in brief (CRS Report R43544). Congressional Research Service, Washington, DC (2016)

    Google Scholar 

  15. Tillery, C.: Body armor designed to safeguard officers lives, officer safety corner. Police Chief 82(April), 18–19 (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  16. La Tourette, T.: Life-saving effectiveness of body armor for police officers. J. Occup. Environ. Hyg. 7(10), 557–562 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Larson, R.C.: Urban Police Patrol Analysis. MIT Press, Cambridge (1972)

    Google Scholar 

  18. Gramlich, J., Schaeffer, K.: 7 facts about guns in the US, downloaded from https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/10/22/facts-about-guns-in-united-states/ on August 3, (2019)

  19. Bushman, B.J., et al.: Risk factors for youth violence: youth violence commission, international society for research on aggression (ISRA). Aggress. Behav. 2018(44), 331–336 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Ackoff, R.L.: The future of operational research is past. J. Oper. Res. Soc. 30(2), 93–104 (1979)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Ackoff, R.L.: Resurrecting the future of operational research. J.Oper. Res. Soc. 30(3), 189–199 (1979)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Hossain, N.U.I., Dayarathna, V.L., Nagahi, M., Jaradat, R.: Systems thinking: a review and bibliometric analysis. Systems 8, 23 (2020). https://doi.org/10.3390/systems8030023

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Lane, D.C., Munro, E., Husemann, E.: Blending systems thinking approaches for organizational analysis: reviewing child protection in England. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 251, 613–623 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Cabrera, D., Cabrera, L., Powers, E., Solin, J., Kushner, J.: Applying systems thinking models of organizational design and change in community operational research. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 268, 932–945 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Checkland, P.B.: From optimizing to learning: a development of systems thinking for the 1990’s. J. Oper. Res. Soc. 36(9), 757–767 (1985)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Checkland, P.B.: Soft systems methodology: a thirty year retrospective. Syst. Res. Behav. Sci. 17, S11–S58 (2000)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Akiyama, Y., Nolan, J.: Methods for understanding and analyzing NIBRS data. J. Quant. Criminol. 15(2), 1999 (1999)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Strom, K.J., Smith, E.L.: The case for the national incident-based reporting system (NIBRS) as a primary data source for policy evaluation and crime analysis. Criminol. Pub. Policy 16(4), 1027–1048 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Klick, J., Tabarrok, A.: Using terror alert levels to estimate the effect of police on crime. J. Law Econ. 48(1), 267–279 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Chitra, T., Karunanidhi, S.: The impact of resilience training on occupational stress, resilience, job satisfaction and psychological well-being of female police officers. J. Police Crim. Psychol. 36, 8–23 (2021)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Salemo, J., Sanchez, J.: Subjective interpretation of “objective” video evidence: perceptions of male versus female police officers’ use of force. Law Hum. Behav. 44(2), 97–112 (2020)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Anderson, D.R., Sweeney, D.J., Williams, T.A., Camm, J.D. and Cochran, J.J.: Statistics for business and economics. Cengage Learning, 13th edition, ISBN: 978-1-305-58531-7. (2017)

  33. Gopalan, R., Kimbrough, S.O., Murphy, F., Quintus, N.: The Philadelphia districting contest: designing territories for city council based upon the 2010 census. Inf. J. Appl. Anal. 43(5), 477–489 (2013)

    Google Scholar 

  34. Gopalan, R.: Designing information ecosystems to process citizen input and improve public sector decision making. Int. J. Appl. Decis. Sci. 13(4), 387–416 (2020)

    Google Scholar 

  35. Forrester, J.W.: Principles of systems. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA (1968)

    Google Scholar 

  36. Andersen, D.F., Vennix, J.A.M., Richardson, G.P., Rouwette, E.A.J.A.: Group model building: problem structuring, policy simulation and decision support. J. Oper. Res. Soc. 58, 691–694 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Lane, D.C.: Modeling as learning: a consultancy methodology for enhancing learning in management teams. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 59, 64–84 (1992)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Mingers, J., White, L.: A review of the recent contributions of systems thinking to operational research and management science. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 207, 1147–1161 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. Senge, P.M., Sterman, J.D.: Systems thinking and organizational learning: acting locally and thinking globally in the organization of the future. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 59, 137–150 (1992)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Checkland, P.B.: Systems thinking, systems practice. Wiley, Chichester (1981)

    Google Scholar 

  41. Basden, A., Wood-Harper, A.T.: A philosophical discussion of the root definition in soft systems thinking: an enrichment of CATWOE. Syst. Res. Behav. Sci. 23, 61–87 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. NJ center on gun violence.: 25,000 Americans die every year from gun-inflicted suicide, youtube video at www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qWglzaQMRU, September 30th, 2021 (viewed October 5th 2021)

  43. Bushman, B.J., Anderson, C.A.: Understanding causality in the effects of media violence. Am. Behav. Sci. 59(14), 1807–1821 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. Vries, L.E., Farrell, A., Bouché, V., Wittmer-Wolfe, D.E.: Crime frames and gender differences in the activation of crime concern and crime responses. J. Crim. Justice 66(101651), 1–12 (2020)

    Google Scholar 

  45. Maguire, E.R.: New directions in protest policing. St. Louis Univ. Public Law Rev. 35(1), 6 (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  46. Nix, J., Todak, N., Tregle, B.: Predictors of body-worn camera diffusion amidst the push for greater transparency in 21st century policing in the United States, Nov. 13th, 2019, 75th annual meeting of the American Society of Criminology, San Francisco, CA (2019)

  47. Siegel, M., Xuan, Z., Ross, C.S., Galea, S., Kalesan, B., Fleegler, E., Goss, K.A.: Easiness of legal access to concealed firearm permits and homicide rates in the United States. Am. J. Pub. Health 107(12), 1923–1929 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  48. Denne, S.C., Baumberger, J., Mariani, M., The pediatric policy council: Funding for gun violence research: the importance of sustained advocacy by academic paediatricians. Editorial in Nature/pediatric research. Pediatr. Res. 87, 800–801 (2020)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. Jaffe, S.: Decisions to be made in US gun violence research funds, www.thelancet.com, vol. 395, February 8, (2020).

Download references

Acknowledgements

Support from the New Jersey center on gun violence for this project is gratefully acknowledged. The Center on Gun Violence Research works in collaboration with and is supported by New Jersey’s Office of the Secretary of Higher Education (OSHE).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Business, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, 227 Penn Street, Camden, NJ, 08102, USA

    Ram Gopalan

  2. Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, USA

    Tingnan Lin

Authors
  1. Ram Gopalan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Tingnan Lin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ram Gopalan.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Appendix: Statistical tests

Appendix: Statistical tests

1.1 Impact of officer rate (workload) on P-FK

Data on officer fatalities were extracted from LEOKA (Law officers killed or attacked), an open-source data set collated by the FBI for a five year period 2012–2016. The monthly numbers were aggregated to a yearly total. For a department-year to be a valid record, the record must contain information for both the population covered (workload) as well as the number of officers in that department for that year. Data was available for a total of 75,058 department-years, which were placed in two buckets: those departments with a critical officer ratio per thousand population = CR >  = (a threshold), or CR < threshold. (see Sect. 4.1 for a definition of this critical ratio). In this appendix, we show results for two values of CR: CR = 0.004, CR = 0.005. P-FK, the proportion of departments with an officer fatality were compared for the two buckets as per the hypotheses below:

H0

P-FK(CR >  = threshold) ≥ P-FK(CR < threshold).

H1

P-FK(CR >  = threshold) < P-FK(CR < threshold).

Let p1 = P-FK(CR >  = threshold), p2 = P-FK(CR < threshold) and p = pooled proportion of department-years when a department experiences a fatality (i.e., P-FK for both buckets together).

σ = \(\sqrt{p(1-p)(\frac{1}{n1}+\frac{1}{n2})}\), where n1 = number of departments with CR >  = threshold and n2 = number of departments with CR < threshold. The test statistic Z = (p1 – p2)/ σ. (see Anderson et al. [32], chapter 10 for details of the test). For a one-tailed test and α = 5%, the critical value Z-critical = − 1.64.

1.1.1 A1.1 CR = 0.004

 

# departments with no fatalities

# departments with a fatality

TOTAL

CR < 0.004

68,570

156

68,726

CR ≥ 0.004

6321

11

6332

Total

74,891

167

75,058

For the data above, p1 = 0.00173, p2 = 0.0023, p = 0.00223, σ = 0.00062 and Z = 0.86 and the p-value = 0.195. The effect of department size is not significant for α = 5%.

1.1.2 A1.2 CR = 0.005

 

# departments with no fatalities

# departments with a fatality

TOTAL

CR < 0.005

71,225

164

71,389

CR ≥ 0.005

3666

3

3669

Total

74,891

167

75,058

For the data above, p1 = 0.000818, p2 = 0.002297, p = 0.002225, σ = 0.000798 and Z = -1.85 and the p-value = 0.03. The effect of department size is significant for α = 5% when CR = 0.005. Some analysts prefer that np ≥ 5 in all cells for this test. Given that only 3 departments had any officer fatalities when CR ≥ 0.005, we tested the above hypothesis using a normal approximation to binomial probabilities. For this alternate test, we assumed a base binomial probability of p2 = 0.002297 (equivalent to the situation when CR < 0.005). Using this p2, we computed the probability of 3 or fewer fatalities for 3669 binomial trials (= number of departments with CR ≥ 0.005), using a normal approximation to binomial probabilities. The odds of this occurrence is 0.0306 (equivalent to the p-value in the hypothesis test above).

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Gopalan, R., Lin, T. Tackling gun violence: is systems thinking necessary?. OPSEARCH 59, 908–929 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12597-022-00577-1

Download citation

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12597-022-00577-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation