Abstract
To achieve food security, closing the cropping intensity gap (CIG) between realizable and actual cropping systems is the most effective way to increase grain production (GP) with lower environmental costs. Numerous studies have explored the yield gap between the potential and actual crop yields, but few studies have analysed the changes in GP by closing the CIG. The GP gap, a difference between attainable and actual GP, was estimated by closing the CIG at the cropping system level in 775 counties of Southern China. Results showed that the GP gap by closing the CIG was 84.27 Mt, accounting for 69% of the total actual GP, which was mainly distributed in the Yanjiang plain Subzone, Pengdong hills and mountains Subzone, Huanan low plain Subznone, and Jiangnan Zone. The total attainable GP was estimated to be 206.63 Mt as the CIG was closed. Furthermore, when all the cultivated land was used to grow grain crops, the attainable GP reached 367.83 Mt, indicating that the study area could supply 64% of the national actual GP with 25% of the national cultivated land. These findings indicate that closing the CIG of cultivated land in this region will be feasible to increase GP to ensure the national food security and promote sustainable agriculture as a main source of national food production with less ecological pressure.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Beddow, J. M., Hurley, T. M., & Pardey, P. G. (2014). Food security: Yield Gap. University of Minnesota, InSTePP Center, Saint Paul, MN, USA JM Alston, University of California, Davis, CA, USA. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-52512-3.00037-1.
Beza, E., Silva, J. V., Kooistra, L., & Reidsma, P. (2017). Review of yield gap explaining factors and opportunities for alternative data collection approaches. European Journal of Agronomy, 82, 206–222. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2016.06.016.
Cai, S., Shi, H., Pan, X. H., Xu, T., Xie, H. W., Liu, F. P., & Cao, N. (2019). Influence of the combination of returning green manure cultivation and rice straw on the growth and yield formation of machine-transplanted early-late season double-cropping rice. Acta Agriculturae Universitatis Jiangxiensis, 41(4), 631–640. https://doi.org/10.13836/j.jjau.2019073.
Charania, I., & Li, X. R. (2019). Smart farming: Agriculture's shift from a labor intensive to technology native industry. Internet of Things., 9, 100142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iot.2019.100142.
Fischer, R. A. (2015). Definitions and determination of crop yield, yield gaps, and of rates of change. Field Crop Research, 182, 9–18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2014.12.006.
Foley, J. A., Ramankutty, N., Brauman, K. A., Cassidy, E. S., Gerber, J. S., Johnston, M., Mueller, N. D., OConnell, C., Ray, D. K., West, P. C., Balzer, C., Bennett, E. M., Carpenter, S. R., Hill, J., Monfreda, C., Polasky, S., Rockström, J., Sheehan, J., Siebert, S., Tilman, D., & Zaks, D. P. M. (2011). Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature, 478(7369), 337–342 https://www.nature.com/articles/nature10452.
Gabrielle, B., Bamiere, L., Caldes, N., De Cara, S., Decocq, G., Ferchaud, F., Loyce, C., Pelzer, E., Perez, Y., Wohlfahrt, J., & Richard, G. (2014). Paving the way for sustainable bioenergy in Europe: Technological options and research avenues for large-scale biomass feedstock supply. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 33, 11–25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.01.050.
Guilpart, N., Grassini, P., Sadras, V. O., Timsina, J., & Cassman, K. G. (2017). Estimating yield gaps at the cropping system level. Field Crop Research, 206, 21–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2017.02.008.
Guo, J. P., Zhao, J. F., Xu, Y. H., Chu, Z., Mu, J., & Zhao, Q. (2015). Effects of adjusting cropping systems on utilization efficiency of climatic resources in Northeast China under future climate scenarios. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 87-88, 87–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2015.07.012.
Hampf, A. C., Carauta, M., Latynskiy, E., Libera, A. A. D., Monteiro, L., Sentelhas, P., Troost, C., Berger, T., & Nendel, C. (2018). The biophysical and socio-economic dimension of yield gaps in the southern Amazon – A bio-economic modelling approach. Agricultural Systems, 165, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2018.05.009.
He, X. F. (2016). Shayang’s “continuous farming mode by households”. Rural Work Bull., 15, 16–18 (in Chinese).
He, W. S., Wu, W. B., Yu, Q. Y., Hu, W. J., Tan, J. Y., & Hu, Y. N. (2016). Changes in spatio-temporal distribution of potential increasing multiple cropping in China during 1980-2010. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 37(11), 7–14. https://doi.org/10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20161102 (in Chinese with English abstract).
Hoffmann, M. P., Haakana, M., Asseng, S., Höhn, J. G., Palosuo, T., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Fronzek, S., Ewert, F., Gaiser, T., Kassie, B. T., Paff, K., Rezaei, E. E., Rodríguez, A., Semenov, M., Srivastava, A. K., Stratonovitch, P., Tao, F., Chen, Y., & Rötter, R. P. (2018). How does inter-annual variability of attainable yield affect the magnitude of yield gaps for wheat and maize? An analysis at ten sites. Agricultural Systems, 159, 199–208. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.03.012.
Hu, Q., Hua, W., Yin, Y., Zhang, X. K., Liu, L. J., Shi, J. Q., Zhao, Y. G., Qin, L., Chen, C., & Wang, H. Z. (2017). Rapeseed research and production in China. The Crop Journal, 5(2), 127–135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cj.2016.06.005.
Huang, G. Q., & Sun, D. P. (2017). Development situation and research progress of multiple cropping in China. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 33(3), 35-43. (in Chinese with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16030188.
Iizumi, T., & Ramankutty, N. (2015). How do weather and climate influence cropping area and intensity? Global Food Security, 4, 46–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2014.11.003.
Jiang, L., Chen, X., Lun, F., Pan, Z. H., Niu, J. H., Ding, C. Y., Meng, L. J., Zhang, G. L., Mgeni, P. C., Sieber, S., & An, P. L. (2019). Spatial distribution and changes of the realizable triple cropping system in China. Sustainability, 11(6), 1654. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11061654.
Khaliq, T., Gaydon, D. S., Ahmad, M., Cheema, M. J. M., & Gull, U. (2019). Analyzing crop yield gaps and their causes using cropping systems modelling–a case study of the Punjab rice-wheat system, Pakistan. Field Crop Research, 232, 119–130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2018.04.007.
Klerkx, L., Jakku, E., & Labarthe, P. A. (2019). A review of social science on digital agriculture, smart farming and agriculture 4.0: New contributions and a future research agenda. NJAS - Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences: 100315. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.njas.2019.100315.
Kuang, W., Hu, Y. J., Dai, X. Q., & Song, X. Y. (2015). Investigation of changes in water resources and grain production in China: Changing patterns and uncertainties. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 122(3–4), 557–565. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1315-8.
Li, J. (2010). Water shortages loom as northern China's aquifers are sucked dry. Science, 328(5985), 1462–1463. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.328.5985.1462-a.
Li, T., Gao, J. S., Bai, L. Y., Wang, Y. A., Huang, J., Kunmar, M., & Zeng, X. B. (2019). Influence of green manure and rice straw management on soil organic carbon, enzyme activities, and rice yield in red paddy soil. Soil and Tillage Research, 195, 104428. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.still.2019.104428.
Liu, L., Xu, X. X., Hu, Y. M., Liu, Z. J., & Qiao, Z. (2018a). Efficiency analysis of bioenergy potential on winter fallow fields: A case study of rape. Science of the Total Environment, 628-629, 103–109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.0160048-9697.
Liu, S. L., Wang, X., Ma, S. T., Zhao, X., Chen, F., Xiao, X. P., Lal, R., & Zhang, H. L. (2018b). Extreme stress threatened double rice production in southern China during 1981–2010. Theoretical and Applied Climatology., 137, 1987–1996. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2719-7.
López-Lozano, R., & Baruth, B. (2019). An evaluation framework to build a cost-efficient crop monitoring system. Experiences from the extension of the European crop monitoring system. Agricultural Systems, 168, 231–246. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2018.04.002.
Luo, W., & Timothy, D. J. (2017). An assessment of farmers’ satisfaction with land consolidation performance in China. Land Use Policy, 61, 501–510. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.12.002.
Peng, X.H., Shi, Q.H., & Zhu, X. (2018). The source of China's grain production growth (2000-2013). Issues in Agricultural Economy, 1: 97-109. (in Chinese with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.13246/j.cnki.iae.2018.01.012.
Raheem, A., Zhang, J., Huang, J., Jiang, Y., Deng, A. X., Gao, J. S., & Zhang, W. J. (2019). Greenhouse gas emissions from a rice-rice-green manure cropping system in South China. Geoderma, 353, 331–339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2019.07.007.
Ray, D. K., & Foley, J. A. (2013). Increasing global crop harvest frequency: Recent trends and future directions. Environmental Research Letters, 8(4), 44041. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044041.
Rotz, S., Gravely, E., Mosby, I., Duncan, E., Finnis, E., Horgan, M., LeBlanc, J., Martin, R., Neufeld, H. T., Nixon, A., Pant, L., Shalla, V., & Fraser, E. (2019). Automated pastures and the digital divide: How agricultural technologies are shaping labour and rural communities. Journal of Rural Studies, 68, 112–122. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2019.01.023.
Sugino, T., Nobuntou, W., Srisombut, N., Rujikun, P., Luanmanee, S., & Punlai, N. (2013). Effects of long-term organic material applications and green manure crop cultivation on soil organic carbon in rain fed area of Thailand. International Soil and Water Conservation Research, 1(3), 29–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2095-6339(15)30028-9.
Tan, S., Heerink, N., & Qu, F. T. (2006). Land fragmentation and its driving forces in China. Land Use Policy, 23(3), 272–285. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2004.12.001.
Wang, H. (2015). Innovation of farmland fragmentation governance model and farmland system reform – A case study of “one plot of farmland” reform in Mengcheng County, Anhui province. Journal of Xinyu College, 6, 31–33 (in Chinese).
Wang, J. Y., Zhang, Z. W., & Liu, Y. S. (2018). Spatial shifts in grain production increases in China and implications for food security. Land Use Policy, 74, 204–213. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.11.037.
Xie, H. L., & Liu, G. Y. (2015). Spatiotemporal differences and influencing factors of multiple cropping index in China during 1998–2012. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 25(11), 1283–1297. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-015-1234-3.
Xu, S. W., Wu, J. Z., Song, W., Li, Z. Q., Li, Z. M., & Kong, F. T. (2013). Spatial-temporal changes in grain production, consumption and driving mechanism in China. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 12(2), 374–385. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2095-3119(13)60236-1.
Xu, Y., Xin, L. J., Li, X. B., Tan, M. H., & Wang, Y. H. (2019). Exploring a moderate operation scale in China’s grain production: A perspective on the costs of machinery services. Sustainability, 11, 2213. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11082213.
Yang, Z. P., Zhang, S. X., Nie, J., Liao, Y. L., & Xie, J. (2014). Effects of long-term winter planted green manure on distribution and storage of organic carbon and nitrogen in water-stable aggregates of reddish paddy soil under a double-rice cropping system. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13(8), 1772–1781. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2095-3119(13)60565-1.
Yang, L., Bai, J. S., Zeng, N. H., Zhou, X., Liao, Y. L., Lu, Y. H., Reese, R. M., Nie, J., & Cao, W. D. (2019). Diazotroph abundance and community structure are reshaped by straw return and mineral fertilizer in rice-rice-green manure rotation. Applied Soil Ecology, 136, 11–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apsoil.2018.12.015.
Yu, X., Sun, J. X., Sun, S. K., Yang, F., Lu, Y. J., Wang, Y. B., Wu, F. J., & Liu, P. (2019). A comprehensive analysis of regional grain production characteristics in China from the scale and efficiency perspectives. Journal of Cleaner Production, 212, 610–621. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.12.063.
Zhang, J. G., Liu, X. D., Cao, Z. Z., Yu, Z., & Lu, Y. G. (2008). Current status and perspectives of research and utilization of forage rice. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 17(5), 151–155 (in Chinese with English abstract).
Zhang, J. K., Zhang, F. R., Zhang, D., He, D. X., Zhang, L., Wu, C. G., & Kong, X. B. (2009). The grain potential of cultivated lands in mainland China in 2004. Land Use Policy, 26(1), 68–76. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2008.01.002.
Zhang, B. B., Niu, W. H., Ma, L. Y., Zuo, X. Y., Kong, X. B., Chen, H. B., Zhang, Y. F., Chen, W., Zhao, M. J., & Xia, X. L. (2019a). A company-dominated pattern of land consolidation to solve land fragmentation problem and its effectiveness evaluation: A case study in a hilly region of Guangxi autonomous region, Southwest China. Land Use Policy, 88, 104115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104115.
Zhang, H., Tao, F. L., & Zhou, G. S. (2019b). Potential yields, yield gaps, and optimal agronomic management practices for rice production systems in different regions of China. Agricultural Systems, 171, 100–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.01.007.
Zhou, G. P., Gao, S. J., Lu, Y. H., Liao, Y. L., Nie, J., & Cao, W. D. (2020). Co-incorporation of green manure and rice straw improves rice production, soil chemical, biochemical and microbiological properties in a typical paddy field in southern China. Soil and Tillage Research, 197, 104499. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.still.2019.104499.
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41871086) and the National Key R&D Program of China (No.2018YFA0606303). We are thankful for the helpful comments and suggestions made by the anonymous reviewers.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Jiang, L., Chen, X., Meng, L. et al. Increased grain production of cultivated land by closing the existing cropping intensity gap in Southern China. Food Sec. 13, 385–398 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-021-01154-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-021-01154-y