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Physical limitations and challenges to Grain Security in China

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Abstract

China’s grain security is a global issue. In this paper, grain production and consumption in China from 1981 to 2011 are analyzed empirically, and the physical limitations and strategic options for future sustainable grain production are discussed. China’s population is estimated to reach 1.4 billion in 2020 and to peak at about1.43 billion around 2030. With rapid urbanization, grain consumption per capita for food and feed will decrease slightly, and the total grain demand will increase to 525.4 Mt in 2020 and 546.3 Mt in 2030, accounting for increments of 31.9 and 52.8 Mt, respectively from a base of 493.6 Mt, the average of 2009–2011 production. Increased industrial use is the dominant factor, which will drive increase in grain demand in the future. Increase in grain production over the period 1981–2011 occurred mainly as a result of increases in yield per unit area but the significant increase in maize has been due to both cultivated area and yield. Limited arable land, declining area of cultivated grain and water shortage in the North China Plain are the most critical resources limiting further grain production, while the impacts of growing urbanization, rural aging and climate change are less significant. In order to ensure future grain security in China, the following strategic options must be adopted: optimizing existing population policy, strictly protecting cultivated land and ensuring conservation of grain crop areas, raising the ratio of agricultural use to other uses of water in the North China Plain, adjusting grain self-sufficiency ratio, reducing pressure on resources and increasing investments in agriculture and in developing agricultural technologies.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100083, China

    Jianmin Li & Zhaohu Li

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  1. Jianmin Li
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  2. Zhaohu Li
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Correspondence to Zhaohu Li.

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Li, J., Li, Z. Physical limitations and challenges to Grain Security in China. Food Sec. 6, 159–167 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-013-0326-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-013-0326-0

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