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India’s North–South divide and theories of fertility change

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Abstract

Economic condition and women’s status have been considered important elements in understanding fertility change. In this study, we examine their influence on North–South differences in parity-specific fertility intentions and births in India using the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-2) conducted in 1998–1999. The results show the persistence of spatial variations in fertility intentions and births, net of economic and women’s status factors. The influence of these factors is more pronounced in the high fertility region. This study argues that changes in fertility desires and their actualization may be better understood when situated within the broader socio-political context.

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Notes

  1. For articulation of these concerns, see Bose (2007). On the political front, the concern is that the states with high population growth rates would occupy a large share of seats in the national assembly. The current allotment of seats in the parliament is based on the 1971 census, and a recent amendment has extended this arrangement until 2026.

  2. New states were carved out in late 2000 from the three northern states: Jharkhand from Bihar, Chhattisgarh from Madhya Pradesh, and Uttaranchal from Uttar Pradesh. In this paper north refers to the pre-2000 state boundaries.

  3. For the rest of the paper, north and south refer to the states mentioned, unless noted otherwise. In accordance with the Indian demographic literature only four of the northern states—Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh—are included in the northern category. These four states, sometimes known by the acronym ‘BIMARU’, are different from other northern states (Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir and Haryana) in both cultural and demographic aspects.

  4. Bhat’s (1996) analysis of spatial morphology of fertility change in India identifies eight fertility zones, based on the time and pace of fertility decline.

  5. What constitutes women’s position is debatable, and so are the distinctions among the concepts of women’s autonomy, status and position. In this introductory section, we use the term women’s position without defining it or differentiating it from other concepts; but in our analysis, we use specific measures related to women’s autonomy.

  6. For this debate see Rahman and Rao (2004).

  7. When generalized to any behaviour, this framework as Lesthaeghe and Neels (2002: 327) note, could denote the following: Readiness: a new form of behaviour must yield benefits that outweigh the costs or disadvantages; Willingness: the new form must be legitimized; Ability: there must be adequate means to … implement the new forms.

  8. Here the contraceptives generally refer to modern contraceptives. Of course, women may still gather information about traditional contraceptives and their use from their social networks. See Basu’s (2005) discussion on the use of traditional contraceptive methods among educated women in India.

  9. We present the economic argument in broad strokes. There are various versions of the economic argument, the three prominent ones being the Pennsylvania school, Chicago school and Easterlin’s framework. For a review of these arguments, see Pollak and Watkins (1993), Kirk (1996), and Robinson (1997).

  10. For the case of Bangladesh, which has received much attention, see Cleland et al. (1994) and Caldwell et al. (1999).

  11. It should be noted that the influence of development on fertility change could be on either the timing of fertility decline or its pace or both; see Bryant (2007) for a recent exposition of this argument.

  12. Marriage age explains another 18%. Calculated on the basis of Bongaarts’s (1978) proximate determinants framework. Detailed results and model assumptions are not presented here, but available from the first author upon request.

  13. Two points should be noted: first, such evidence should be construed as a weaker form of abscissio infiniti. Second, no claim is made about the translation of intentions into actual fertility. It is equally likely that those desiring no more children or more children at the time of the survey may fail to meet their desires as time goes by. The translation of fertility intentions to actual fertility could be better understood as an indeterminate process contingent upon the lived experience of women in a particular setting (see Agadjanian 2005; Johnson-Hanks 2007).

  14. For women at parity two, the numbers excluded for this reason were 1 and 4% for south and north Indian women respectively. For women at parity three, these percentages were one and three.

  15. This 11-month gap is to account for a minimum of 2 months of post partum amenorrhoea and 9 months of gestation for a next birth.

  16. It is possible that our models underestimate the influence of gender and economic factors for the following reason. The present examination is comparing two regions at different stages of fertility transition and the influence of the gender and economic factors may have been more pronounced in the early stages of transition than in the later stages.

  17. In Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, as in the rest of the country, backward castes do not include the Dalits (ex-untouchables) and Tribes. And political and social advancement of the backward castes in the two states should not be equated with Dalit and Tribal advancement. Their trajectories of political mobilization and advancement are varied and divergent.

  18. In Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, it was not until the 1990s that parties with a strong following among the backward castes came to power. While no such change has occurred in Madhya Pradesh, the percentage of backward-castes Members of Parliament (MPs) from the state increased from 7.5 to 20.5 between 1984 and 1998. During the same period in Rajasthan, the percentage of backward-castes MPs remained stable at 12 (Jaffrelot 2000).

  19. For a spatial perspective of fertility decline in Andhra Pradesh see James (1999). Generally, Bhat (2002) has noted that the reduction in family size was accompanied by greater investment in child schooling.

  20. For the effectiveness of family planning programs in the south, see Srinivasan et al. (1991) and Ramasundaram (1995).

  21. The ‘narrowness and insufficiency of diffusionist approaches’ have been catalogued by Kreager (1998: 311). In addition to the already-mentioned lack of explanatory framework, diffusionist approaches have been criticized for not considering non-linearity, multiple outcomes, and cultural symbolism in the diffusion process.

  22. The homogenization of preferences within a region may also have been facilitated by the division of the northern (Hindi) film industry based in Mumbai (formerly Bombay) and the southern film industry based in Chennai (formerly Madras). It should be noted that the film industry in the south is further divided along linguistic lines (Tamil, Telugu, Kannada and Malayalam).

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  1. Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore, 469A Tower Block, # 8-10, Bukit Timah Road, 259770, Singapore, Singapore

    Premchand Dommaraju

  2. School of Social and Family Dynamics and the Center for Population Dynamics, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA

    Victor Agadjanian

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Dommaraju, P., Agadjanian, V. India’s North–South divide and theories of fertility change. J Pop Research 26, 249–272 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-009-9014-5

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