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Modelling landslides in the Lesser Himalaya region using geospatial and numerical simulation techniques

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Abstract

The Himalayan region has always been hard hit by landslides, posing a serious threat to local communities and development activities. Taking cues from empirical and ancillary data from the deadliest landslide in recent times, the present study used an integrated approach to model landslide hazard in the Lesser Himalayan region, especially the Ukhimath tehsil of the Rudraprayag District, Uttarakhand, India. This holistic study involved mapping of a detailed landslide inventory, a hazard and risk analysis, and numerical simulations to model debris flow. Using the detailed landslide inventory (~ 505 landslides), this study produced a landslide hazard map using a bivariate statistical technique (frequency ratio) with 12 data layers: slope, aspect, relative relief, distance to linear features, geology, soil depth and soil erosion, geomorphology, vegetation, and land use/land cover (LULC). This was subsequently validated with receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) technique which revealed that 89% of the observed landslides occurred in the predicted high-hazard zones which comprised 10% of the total, implying good accuracy. Despite the ubiquitous risk of landslides across the entire area, the final hazard map revealed that only 24% of the area was in a high-to-very-high-hazard zone, whereas a risk analysis revealed that 11% of the total area was located in the very-high-risk zone. Targeting a high hazard zone, four basic parameters: height, velocity, pressure, and momentum of a debris flow were derived using numerical modelling, incorporating the Voellmy friction law in a physics-based model. This study could provide valuable insights for structural and non-structural measures to protect life and property and strengthen landslide mitigation.

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Data availability

The data supporting the findings of this article is available upon request to the principal author. However, it is important to note that the availability of satellite imagery is subject to the decision of the Indian Institute of Remote Sensing.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the Centre for Space Science and Technology Education in Asia Pacific (CSSTEAP) and Indian institute of Remote sensing (IIRS). We are grateful to IIRS for all of their research assistance, particularly for providing very high-resolution satellite imagery and financial support for field investigation for this work. We are indebted to the local administration of the study site for their valuable logistical support during field investigation. We acknowledge the contribution of Dr. Champati Ray, who sadly passed away in 2021 due to COVID, for his unwavering support and knowledge sharing for this research. The authors are grateful to Dr. Amy Griffin, RMIT University, Australia, for her English proofreading.

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  1. Department of Geology, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh

    Md. Ashraful Islam

  2. School of Science, University of New South Wales (UNSW), Canberra, 2612, Australia

    Md. Ashraful Islam

  3. Geosciences Department, Indian Institute of Remote Sensing (IIRS), Dehradun, 248001, India

    Shovan Lal Chattoraj

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Islam, M.A., Chattoraj, S.L. Modelling landslides in the Lesser Himalaya region using geospatial and numerical simulation techniques. Arab J Geosci 16, 480 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-023-11541-8

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