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Spatial and temporal analysis of drought in various climates across Iran using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

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Abstract

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is widely used as a drought meteorological index, to identify drought characteristics including the number of events, frequency, duration, and intensity. In the present study, the SPI is used to detect drought characteristics in spatial and temporal patterns at various timescales of 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 2-, and 48 months. For this purpose, monthly climatic data from 43 synoptic stations during 1969–2019 were analyzed from Iran’s various climates (coastal wet, mountain, semi mountain, semidesert, desert, and coastal desert). Abrupt and gradual changes in SPI1-48 were detected using the nonparametric Pettitt test and Mann–Kendall (M-K) test separately in the various climates. The M-K results show that a trend was increasingly significant at longer timescales, with the trend of SPI-1 in climates not being significant, while SPI-48 was significant at P less than 0.01 (P < 0.01) at almost all stations in all climates. According to Pettitt’s test results, the changing points of SPI vary between climates and start from Sep. 1992 (SPI1 in semi mountain climates) to Jan. 2004 (SPI48 in desert climates). These results indicate that abrupt changes in the drought index based on SPI, started first in semi mountain and mountain climates in the 1990s and then progressed towards the semidesert and desert climates in the 2000s. The number of drought events changed from 7 in coastal desert stations (Chabahar) to 52 occurrences in coastal wet stations (Bandar Anzali). Spatial distribution of drought intensity shows that drought severity is greater in coastal wet climates than in desert climates. Drought frequency varied from 15.2 to 16.3% at timescales ranging from 1 to 48 months. The mean drought duration was from 12.9 months in semi mountain to 15 months in coastal deserts for SPI1-48. Generally, the study demonstrates the need for more research to select proper timescales for drought indices that are related to climate conditions of given areas.

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Abbreviations

CP:

Changing point

D:

Drought duration

ETref :

Reference evapotranspiration

F:

Drought frequency

I:

Drought intensity

IRIMO:

Iranian Meteorological Organization of Iran

M-K:

Mann–Kendall test

P:

Precipitation

RDI:

Reconnaissance Drought Index

SPEI:

Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

SPI:

Standard precipitation index

T a :

Average air temperature (°C)

T max :

Maximum temperature

T mean :

Average temperature

T min :

Minimum temperature

u 2 :

Average wind speed at 2 m height (m s−1)

μ 1 :

Mutation 1

μ 2 :

Mutation 2

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This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environment Science and Engineering, Arak University, Arak, Iran

    Saeed Sharafi & Saviz Sadeghi

  2. Department of Water Science and Engineering, Arak University, Arak, Iran

    Mehdi Mohammadi Ghaleni

Authors
  1. Saeed Sharafi
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  2. Mehdi Mohammadi Ghaleni
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  3. Saviz Sadeghi
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Correspondence to Saeed Sharafi.

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Responsible Editor: Zhihua Zhang

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Sharafi, S., Ghaleni, M.M. & Sadeghi, S. Spatial and temporal analysis of drought in various climates across Iran using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Arab J Geosci 15, 1279 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-022-10489-5

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