Abstract
Drought is a natural hazard that can inflict significant damage to agriculture, society, economy, and ecosystems. The assessment of the persistence of drought severity (PDS) assists in understanding the characteristics of droughts better and enables the development of associated prediction tools and models. This work explores the persistence and spatial–temporal variability of drought severity (DS) in the diverse dryland of Iran. Using monthly precipitation and temperature data of 44 synoptic stations from 1989 to 2018, relationships between DS coefficient of precipitation variation, aridity, and the persistence percentage are determined by the application of the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the dryland index, and the Hurst exponent (H). The results confirm the persistence of droughts in Iran as H exceeded the 0.5 threshold for all stations. The PDS average in Iran is 0.78 with high regional variability reflective of different climatic conditions and geographical locations. An inverse relationship exists between the long-term coefficient of variation of monthly precipitation and PDS in the hyper-arid and arid regions of watersheds. Higher PDS values and increasing trend in the DS are detected in dry-subhumid areas. Also, the effect of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a teleconnection metric, on the DS displays high spatial and temporal variability in Iran. The results show that the PDS is consistent with the spatial variation of DS changes during the period of 2009–2018.
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All authors have made a significant contribution to this research. Zahra Noorisameleh, William A. Gough, and M. Monirul Qader Mirza conceived the research idea and designed a general framework of the research. Zahra Noorisameleh collected the data for analysis and wrote the paper. Zahra Noorisameleh, William A. Gough, and M. Monirul Qader Mirza revised the paper. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Highlights
1. Highlands play an important role in the distribution pattern of PDS in Iran.
2. Drought in Iran’s climate has become a persistent hazard.
3. The spatial and temporal variability of drought severity in the long term is consistent with its persistence pattern.
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Noorisameleh, Z., Gough, W.A. & Mirza, M.M.Q. Persistence and spatial–temporal variability of drought severity in Iran. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28, 48808–48822 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14100-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14100-4