Abstract
Due to climate change, variations in rainfall and rainy days have significant effects on the hydrological cycle and these changes are important for planning and management of flood, drought, and water resources. The study aimed to determine spatio-temporal change in annual rainfall and rainy days for thirteen districts of Uttarakhand, India, located at the foothill of the Himalayan region. The temporal trend in data was determined using the Mann–Kendall (MK) test and the modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test at a 10% level of significance after investigating autocorrelation in the data set using the student’s t-test at a 10% level of significance. Theil’s-Sen slope estimator test was used to evaluate the slope of rainfall and percentage change in rainfall over Uttarakhand. Furthermore, the sequential Mann-Kendal test (SMK) has been applied to determine the abrupt change in rainfall and rainy-day time-series. Results of the study show that six districts have an increasing trend from which two districts show a significant increasing trend and seven districts show a decreasing trend from which one district has a significantly decreasing trend at a 10% level of significance. In the case of rainy days, four districts have an increasing trend from which two districts show a significant increasing trend and nine districts show a decreasing trend from which no district show a significant decrease at a 10% level of significance. Based on the SMK test, Uttarkashi District shows a maximum of six change point years, whereas Rudraprayag District has no change point year in annual rainfall. For rainy days, Uttarkashi and U. S. Nagar Districts have a maximum of seven change point years, whereas Bageshwar, Haridwar, and Rudraprayag Districts have no change point years. Spatial distribution in annual rainfall and rainy days interpolated by inverse distance weighted (IDW) method in QGIS 3.14. The spatial map might be very helpful for local farmers, water managers, and stockholders to assailability and risk of climate change in their region. The result of the study also could be very precious for agriculture planning, water management, and soil and water conservation for Uttarakhand.
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Data Availability
We are thankful to IMD Dehradun Uttarakhand India for providing data for this study.
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Acknowledgements
The first author (Saroj Rana) is thankful for fellowship from Inspire Programme, Department of Science and Technology (DST), Government of India. We are also thankful to Indian Institute of Technology, Ropar, Punjab, India, for providing necessary facilities.
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SR collected the data from IMD Dehradun and determined statistical parameters. After that applied MK test, MMK test, and Theil-Sen’s slope test. VD participated in spatial distribution of rainfall and performs it in QGIS. SR and VD drafted the manuscript. SRC revise and checked the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Rana, S., Deoli, V. & Chavan, S.R. Detection of abrupt change in trends of rainfall and rainy day’s pattern of Uttarakhand. Arab J Geosci 15, 618 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-022-09883-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-022-09883-w