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Spatio-temporal simulation of future urban growth trends using an integrated CA-Markov model

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Abstract

Urban growth, a dynamic and demographic phenomenon, refers to the increased spatial value of urban areas, such as cities and towns, due to social and economic forces. Nowadays, urban lands are rapidly increasing, replacing non-urban lands such as agricultural, forest, water, rural, and open lands. In this study, a CA-Markov model was utilized to predict the growth of urban lands and their spatial trends in Seremban, Malaysia. The performance of the CA-Markov model was also assessed. The Markov chain model was applied to produce the quantitative values of transition probabilities for urban and non-urban lands. Subsequently, the CA model was used to predict the dynamic spatial trends of land changes. The change in urban and non-urban land use from 1984 to 2010 was modeled using the CA-Markov model for calibration purposes and to compute optimal CA transition rules, as well as to predict future urban growth. For accuracy assessment, the CA-Markov model was validated using a kappa coefficient. An 83% overall accuracy was observed for the kappa index statistics, which indicates the excellent performance of the proposed model. Finally, based on the CA transition rules and the transition area matrix produced from the Markov chain model-based calibration process, the future urban growth in Seremban for 2020 and 2030 was simulated.

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Funding

The study presented here is the part of research project funded by Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM) under grant No. 9448100.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. The High Institute for Engineering Professions ALmajurie, Benghazi, Libya

    Maher Milad Aburas

  2. Faculty of Engineering, Department of Surveying, Benghazi Private University, Tabalino, Benghazi, Libya

    Maher Milad Aburas

  3. Department of Environmental Management, Faculty of Forestry and Environment, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400, Serdang, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

    Yuek Ming Ho

  4. Centre for Advanced Modelling and Geospatial Information Systems (CAMGIS), Faculty of Engineering and IT, University of Technology Sydney, Ultimo, NSW, 2007, Australia

    Biswajeet Pradhan

  5. School of Civil Engineering, Engineering Campus, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 14300 Nibong Tebal, Penang, Malaysia

    Abdul Hakim Salleh

  6. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering (COE), A’Sharqiyah University, 400, Ibra, Oman

    Motasem Y. D. Alazaiza

Authors
  1. Maher Milad Aburas
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  2. Yuek Ming Ho
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  3. Biswajeet Pradhan
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  4. Abdul Hakim Salleh
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  5. Motasem Y. D. Alazaiza
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Correspondence to Maher Milad Aburas.

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Responsible Editor: Amjad Kallel

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Aburas, M.M., Ho, Y.M., Pradhan, B. et al. Spatio-temporal simulation of future urban growth trends using an integrated CA-Markov model. Arab J Geosci 14, 131 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-06487-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-06487-8

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