Abstract
Lebanon’s consociational system is unique in the Mediterranean region. It guarantees political representation to all major confessional communities through fixed quotas in parliament, cabinet, and throughout the public administration. However, this consensual democracy regularly reaches its limits due to the deep political and sectarian divisions. A reform of the electoral system appears to be key to increasing the functionality of the power-sharing system and to fight the rampant sectarian-based clientelism. So far, the electoral system has favoured the sectarian parties in power. A remarkable electoral reform occurred in 2017, which included a change from the previous plurality/majoritarian system to proportionality. Despite this reform the candidates of the sectarian party leaders—most of whom have been in power since the Lebanese civil war (1975–1990)—won again in 2018; and only a year later, an unprecedented uprising broke out against the entire political leadership. This paper aims to contribute to a better understanding of these developments by addressing two questions: First, why was there consensus in 2017 on a new electoral law that introduced proportionality for the first time? And second, why did the 2018 elections fail to close the rifts between the country’s political leadership and the civil society despite the reformed electoral system?
Zusammenfassung
Das libanesische Konkordanzsystem stellt eine Besonderheit in der Mittelmeerregion dar. Es garantiert allen großen konfessionellen Gemeinschaften politische Teilhabe durch feste Quoten im Parlament, im Kabinett und in der gesamten öffentlichen Verwaltung. Allerdings stößt diese Konsensdemokratie aufgrund der tiefen politischen Gräben zwischen den Gemeinschaften regelmäßig an ihre Grenzen. Eine Reform des Wahlsystems scheint der Schlüssel dafür zu sein, das System der Machtteilung funktionsfähiger zu gestalten und den grassierenden konfessionellen Klientelismus einzudämmen. Bislang begünstigte das Wahlsystem die an der Macht befindlichen konfessionellen Parteien. Eine bemerkenswerte Reform des Wahlsystems fand 2017 statt, die einen Wechsel vom vorherigen Mehrheits- zum Verhältniswahlrecht beinhaltete. Trotz dieser Reform gewannen die Kandidaten der konfessionellen Parteien – von denen die meisten seit dem libanesischen Bürgerkrieg (1975–1990) an der Macht sind – auch 2018; und nur ein Jahr später brach ein beispielloser Aufstand gegen die gesamte politische Führung aus. Dieser Beitrag soll zu einem besseren Verständnis dieser Entwicklungen beitragen, indem er zwei Fragen behandelt: Erstens: Warum gab es 2017 einen Konsens über ein neues Wahlgesetz, das zum ersten Mal das Verhältniswahlrecht einführte? Und zweitens, warum gelang es bei den Wahlen 2018 nicht, trotz des reformierten Wahlsystems die Gräben zwischen der politischen Führung des Landes und der Zivilgesellschaft zu schließen?
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Notes
In the list experiment, a survey sample is randomly divided into two groups: a treatment group and a control group. All respondents are presented with a list of the same neutral statements, except that the treatment group’s list also includes one sensitive statement. Respondents must then indicate the number of statements of the list they agree with. In comparison with the control group, it can then be estimated for how many respondents a sensitive statement is true such as having received benefits in exchange for one’s electoral vote.
The victims of the assassinations include Gebran Tueni (2005), Samir Kassir (2005), Pierre Gemayel (2006), Walid Eido (2007), Antoin Ghanem (2007), Wissam Eid (2008), General Wissam al-Hassan (2012), Mohamad Chatah (2013), and Lockman Slim (2021).
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Felsch, M. Electoral Reform in Lebanon. Z Vgl Polit Wiss 16, 427–446 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12286-022-00547-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12286-022-00547-3